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Armenia: A Russian outpost in the Caucasus? - Feature

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  • Armenia: A Russian outpost in the Caucasus? - Feature

    Earthtimes, UK
    Feb 15 2008


    Armenia: A Russian outpost in the Caucasus? - Feature
    Posted : Fri, 15 Feb 2008 13:08:04 GMT
    Author : DPA



    Moscow/Yerevan, Armenia - Just as Russia has aggressively increased
    its economic presence in Armenia, impending presidential elections
    that have aggravated relations with its neighbouring states have seen
    the political leadership leaning toward the West. Armenia is perched
    high in the Caucasus Mountains flanked on one side by Georgia,
    internationally important for security reasons, and by crucial
    players in the energy game, Iran and Azerbaijan, along its southern
    border.

    Armenia's unique situation - with over one-fifth of its nationals
    living abroad - has significant economic influence on the smallest
    post-Soviet state, though the diaspora is stripped of voting power.

    According to data from the European Bank for Reconstruction and
    Development, remittances from the 8-million-strong Armenian diaspora
    pushes the country's GDP per capita higher than that of its
    neighbour, rising economic power Georgia.

    Formerly known as the Soviet Union's manufacturing hub, Armenia has
    remained firmly within Russia's radius since its industry fell apart
    with the 1991 collapse of the communist regime.

    Compounding its military presence in the country, Russia has ramped
    up its economic presence in recent years, now owning near total
    control over Armenia's energy and transportation sectors.

    A vital pipeline project to diversify energy dependency away from
    Russia by carrying gas from Iran has also come under Russian gas
    monopoly Gazprom's control in 2006.

    Russian ties are in part to offset political embargoes along two of
    its borders due to unresolved territorial disputes with Azerbaijan
    and a failure to achieve reconciliation over the 1915 Armenian
    genocide by the Ottoman Empire.

    But amid election campaign opposition accusations that Russia's
    growing economic presence poses a threat to Yerevan's sovereignty,
    the current administration has been more circumspect about its
    alliances.

    The special relationship showed fault lines over Russia's warming
    relations with Armenia's longtime foe Azerbaijan and its economic
    blockade of Georgia, which has a spill-over effect on Armenian
    business.

    In response, Yerevan has turned towards the West, where a large
    Armenian diaspora is actively lobbying the small state's interest.

    "Yerevan is finding it increasingly important to balance Russia
    against a dialogue with NATO and interesting the European Union,"
    said Thomas Gomart, head of the Russian/CIS programme at Paris-based
    Institut Francais des Relations Internationales.

    But whatever the inter-state relations, Armenia's ties to Russia
    through the diaspora there are the most important, said Gegam
    Khalatyan, the president of the Association of Armenians in Russia.

    The Armenian diaspora in Russia counts about 2 million, and - unlike
    other diasporas - has grown exponentially in the past five years with
    over two thirds of immigrants making Russia their home.

    Remittances sent home from Russia amount to 1 million dollars - the
    total Russian investment in the country last year.

    Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov tacitly displayed Russia's
    interest and support for the incumbent presidential candidate by
    paying his counterpart a visit two weeks before Armenia's elections.

    The meeting reinforced Russia's economic domination with crucial
    bilateral deals signed that handed Russia's state railway company the
    management of Armenia's network for the next 30 years.

    The joint construction of Armenia's first power plant and smoothing
    out the last wrinkles in dividing almost total control of the
    country's energy sector between Russian state-monopolies Gazprom and
    Unified Energy Systems was also agreed upon.

    But, surprisingly, the latest Russian takeovers in the region - where
    it is fast loosing influence to the West - seemed to reinforce the
    leadership's move for closer ties to other governments.

    Though none of the nine Armenian candidates competing for the
    executive office are indifferent to Russia, opposition leaders and
    local analysts have grown increasingly suspicious of Russia's
    economic power during the election campaign.
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