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Armentel Sees Convergent Network Launch By End-2009

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  • Armentel Sees Convergent Network Launch By End-2009

    ARMENTEL SEES CONVERGENT NETWORK LAUNCH BY END-2009
    Michael Lacquiere

    World Markets Research Centre
    Global Insight
    June 26, 2008

    Some momentum is now building towards the possible roll-out of
    fixed-mobile convergence in Armenia.

    Armentel, the Armenian unit of Russian operator Vimpelcom, has
    indicated that it plans to complete construction of a convergent
    network by the end of 2009, reports ARKA. Earlier this year it
    selected Ericsson for construction of the convergent network
    and delivery of an IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) solution, which
    facilitates fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) (see Armenia: 8 February
    2008: ). The Ericsson network will replace components of an old
    Siemens network. This transition will be completed by the end of
    2009. Armentel's Director for Operations Alexander Birman is quoted
    as saying in a press conference that the new Ericsson equipment will
    enable high-quality communication services, and that subscribers will
    be allowed to switch smoothly from one network to the other depending
    on the intensity of incoming signals.

    Global Insight Perspective

    Significance Armentel's IMS solution is scheduled for completion by
    the end of 2009, and as such could herald the launch of FMC in Armenia.

    Implications The project is indicative of parent group VimpelCom's
    willingness to branch out beyond mobile-only provision and explore
    cross-selling and unified billing opportunities.

    Outlook Any launch of FMC could also help Armentel to convert
    fixed-line subscribers to its mobile product, thereby improving its
    mobile market share.

    Having been the first mobile operator to enter the Armenian market,
    Armentel has been overtaken by VivaCell, owned by Russia's Mobile
    TeleSystems (MTS), since its launch in July 2005. At the end of
    the first quarter of 2008 Armentel had a 27% mobile market share to
    VivaCell's 73%. Both operators were awarded 3G licences in October
    2007, with VimpelCom planning to launch services by the end of
    the first half of 2008 and VivaCell by the end of 2008. Within the
    fixed-line market Armentel's monopoly was removed in October 2007,
    and although a handful of IP telephony licences have been issued to
    alternative operators it remains largely unchallenged in the market.

    Outlook and Implications

    VimpelCom Warming to Expansion Beyond Mobile-Only Provision:Until
    recently, VimpelCom had only ever operated in the mobile market. After
    its acquisition of Armentel back in November 2006, there was therefore
    some speculation that the Russian group might divest Armentel's
    fixed-line operations. However, the company is evidently pushing ahead
    with the construction of a network that will facilitate FMC, and this
    service could be commercially offered by the end of 2009. VimpelCom
    has begun to demonstrate a willingness to expand beyond mobile-only
    services, having earlier this year acquired Commonwealth of Independent
    States fixed-line and broadband operator Golden Telecom for $4US.24
    billion. The expansion of its service portfolio creates opportunities
    to cross-sell products and offer simplified, holistic billing services
    to customers, while allowing the operator to counter the limited
    growth potential of mature mobile markets.

    Advantages of Adding Fixed-Line Operations to Service
    Portfolio:Armentel has dropped well behind VivaCell in the Armenian
    mobile market. The gap between the two is large, and Armentel has
    previously stated its goal of improving subscriber market share by
    improving network quality, expanding coverage, and strengthening its
    marketing activities. Although these goals will remain in place, its
    fixed-line operations give it an extra revenue source. In the fourth
    quarter of 2007 Armentel's fixed-line ARPU was $19US.6, compared with
    mobile ARPU of $17US.4 and VivaCell's mobile ARPU of $15US.8. Once
    an FMC product is launched, Armentel could also use the lure of
    a single-billing holistic telecoms product to convert fixed-line
    subscribers to its mobile product, thereby possibly increasing its
    mobile market share.
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