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NEUTRALITY, RUSSIAN-STYLE
by Vadim Dubnov
Gazeta
March 7 2008
Russia
The wall of silence that Russian television has erected around events
in Yerevan may once again have evoked memories of Soviet agitprop,
thanks to which our people remained the only ones on the planet
to learn about events of headlinesignificance from hostile radio
broadcasts.
Yerevan has been the scene of constant demonstrations, of
demonstrations dispersed, and of street disorder on aParisian scale -
in effect, of the kind of attempted revolution that was always the
top news story when it related toGeorgia or even Kyrgyzstan - and
yet suddenly this boycott.
The explanation is known, of course, and is at first sight
unexpected. A few days before the Armenian election Levon Ter-Petrosyan
paid a secret visit to Moscow. Malicious tongues in Yerevan insist
that the only people who would granthim an audience were the staff in
the airport restaurant where he whiled away the time as he waited for
the flight back.At the same time there are major signs to suggest much
greater interest on Moscow's part in meeting withTer-Petrosyan. In any
event, a bearded television commentator renowned for his impassioned
manner [possibly MikhailLeontyev] was surprisingly indulgent towards
him and even recorded an interview with him for showing in prime time
onChannel One, and he, as we know, does not waste his breath.
Ter-Petrosyan himself, meanwhile, cited an agreement not to reveal
details and made only one thing clear: that,whatever happens in
Yerevan, Moscow will remain neutral.
Some tightening up is evidently being done in the old Kremlin "us and
them" system, if only to insure it tosome degree against reactions
in the "Yanukovych congratulations" genre. The actual criteria for
separating usfrom them are changing, especially in the light of recent
measures in Ukraine and Georgia.
Both as premier and in opposition Yanukovych has left the Kremlin
with no illusions as to whether a particularpolitical figure can
be employed as its agent. So now the Kremlin is checking off its
sympathies in agonized fashionalong the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko axis.
The elections in Georgia showed that the alternative was scarcely any
better than Saakashvili and so, from being an enemy, Georgian President
Saakashvili is gradually shifting into the much moretolerated category
of the ordinary.
Armenia, on the other hand, has a special look about it. On the one
hand it is a strategic partner, our last ally in the Caucasus, and the
subject of other bravura mythology about eternal brotherhood. On the
other, it is quite obviouswhat skill Yerevan applies in using these
slogans to keep a proper distance from Moscow, and that logic will
not change,whoever is president.
Strictly speaking, Armenia can already be seen as more independent
of Russia than even its Caucasus neighbours -Azerbaijan and Georgia.
What is more, fears over the possibility that the Karabakh conflict
will be resolved, theborders will open up, and Armenia will
finally disappear over the western horizon are also to some degree
mythologized. The conflict is not going to be resolved, and Armenia's
ties with Turkey are already just as close as economically essential.
The Armenian foreign policy dynamic is stable and predictable, and
its domestic political situation is of no interestto anyone - and
Moscow is uniquely at one with the West in understanding that. Just
as the West is in no way inclined tosupport Ter-Petrosyan with the
recklessness applied to Georgia, so Moscow is restricting itself to
congratulatingSargsyan in the most formal manner.
But that is the theory. The practical implementation has been
customarily fanciful. Neutrality has boiled down in theend to the
pretence that there was no opposition, no demonstration, and no
dispersal of a demonstration. The Kremlin hasdevised only one method
of not showing the Armenian opposition as the enemy - by not showing
it at all.
The congratulations to Serzh Sargsyan looked to be charged with the
happy realization that the Yanukovych syndromehas been overcome,
but that did not shelter the Russian embassy from opposition catcalls
(that also had to be ignored,of course).
Being neutral, it turns out, is a real art. Rather like the art of
wearing a tuxedo. People who are accustomed tomilitary uniform find
it very hard.
by Vadim Dubnov
Gazeta
March 7 2008
Russia
The wall of silence that Russian television has erected around events
in Yerevan may once again have evoked memories of Soviet agitprop,
thanks to which our people remained the only ones on the planet
to learn about events of headlinesignificance from hostile radio
broadcasts.
Yerevan has been the scene of constant demonstrations, of
demonstrations dispersed, and of street disorder on aParisian scale -
in effect, of the kind of attempted revolution that was always the
top news story when it related toGeorgia or even Kyrgyzstan - and
yet suddenly this boycott.
The explanation is known, of course, and is at first sight
unexpected. A few days before the Armenian election Levon Ter-Petrosyan
paid a secret visit to Moscow. Malicious tongues in Yerevan insist
that the only people who would granthim an audience were the staff in
the airport restaurant where he whiled away the time as he waited for
the flight back.At the same time there are major signs to suggest much
greater interest on Moscow's part in meeting withTer-Petrosyan. In any
event, a bearded television commentator renowned for his impassioned
manner [possibly MikhailLeontyev] was surprisingly indulgent towards
him and even recorded an interview with him for showing in prime time
onChannel One, and he, as we know, does not waste his breath.
Ter-Petrosyan himself, meanwhile, cited an agreement not to reveal
details and made only one thing clear: that,whatever happens in
Yerevan, Moscow will remain neutral.
Some tightening up is evidently being done in the old Kremlin "us and
them" system, if only to insure it tosome degree against reactions
in the "Yanukovych congratulations" genre. The actual criteria for
separating usfrom them are changing, especially in the light of recent
measures in Ukraine and Georgia.
Both as premier and in opposition Yanukovych has left the Kremlin
with no illusions as to whether a particularpolitical figure can
be employed as its agent. So now the Kremlin is checking off its
sympathies in agonized fashionalong the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko axis.
The elections in Georgia showed that the alternative was scarcely any
better than Saakashvili and so, from being an enemy, Georgian President
Saakashvili is gradually shifting into the much moretolerated category
of the ordinary.
Armenia, on the other hand, has a special look about it. On the one
hand it is a strategic partner, our last ally in the Caucasus, and the
subject of other bravura mythology about eternal brotherhood. On the
other, it is quite obviouswhat skill Yerevan applies in using these
slogans to keep a proper distance from Moscow, and that logic will
not change,whoever is president.
Strictly speaking, Armenia can already be seen as more independent
of Russia than even its Caucasus neighbours -Azerbaijan and Georgia.
What is more, fears over the possibility that the Karabakh conflict
will be resolved, theborders will open up, and Armenia will
finally disappear over the western horizon are also to some degree
mythologized. The conflict is not going to be resolved, and Armenia's
ties with Turkey are already just as close as economically essential.
The Armenian foreign policy dynamic is stable and predictable, and
its domestic political situation is of no interestto anyone - and
Moscow is uniquely at one with the West in understanding that. Just
as the West is in no way inclined tosupport Ter-Petrosyan with the
recklessness applied to Georgia, so Moscow is restricting itself to
congratulatingSargsyan in the most formal manner.
But that is the theory. The practical implementation has been
customarily fanciful. Neutrality has boiled down in theend to the
pretence that there was no opposition, no demonstration, and no
dispersal of a demonstration. The Kremlin hasdevised only one method
of not showing the Armenian opposition as the enemy - by not showing
it at all.
The congratulations to Serzh Sargsyan looked to be charged with the
happy realization that the Yanukovych syndromehas been overcome,
but that did not shelter the Russian embassy from opposition catcalls
(that also had to be ignored,of course).
Being neutral, it turns out, is a real art. Rather like the art of
wearing a tuxedo. People who are accustomed tomilitary uniform find
it very hard.