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OBAMA PRESIDENCY: A NEW ERA IN TURKISH-AMERICAN RELATIONS?
By Saban Kardas
Eurasia Daily Monitor
Nov 7 2008
DC
Many Turks joined the worldwide rejoicing over the Democrats' victory
and Barack Obama's election as the next president of the United
States. The Turkish public is sympathetic to Obama's call for change
as they find parallels in his story to Turkey's experience with the
reformist wave brought about by the Justice and Development Party's
(AKP) landslide electoral victory in 2002.
President Abdullah Gul, in a letter to President-elect Obama,
reflected this positive mood in Turkey: "Your message of change and
hope is one that meets the expectations of our day. It is a message
that Turkey embraces" (www.cankaya.gov.tr, November 5). Similarly, by
emphasizing Obama's background, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
presented Obama's victory as evidence of the American political
system's democratic credentials (www.cnnturk.com, November 5). Obama's
vision on pressing issues of American politics aside, his promises
of reorienting America's role in the world instilled hope for a new
direction in American foreign policy, hence reinvigorating the Turkish
American relations in the wake of the Bush administration.
Growing anti-Americanism in Turkey, caused by the current
administration's unpopular policies, has been one of the factors
adversely affecting Turkish-American relations. Several studies
have found that the Turkish people harbored unfavorable views
about the United States and preferred the Democrat Obama over
Republican John McCain (Pew Global Attitudes Survey, June 12;
www.pewglobal.org/reports/pdf/260.pdf). Given the positive image of
Obama among the Turkish people, analysts expect him to take important
steps toward saving the United States' image in Turkey and helping
to revitalize the relationship (Turkish Daily News, November 6).
When the candidates' views on specific issues of concern to Turkey were
compared, however, many within the Turkish policy community tended
to favor McCain. Given his refusal to pledge to recognize the events
of 1915 as genocide against the Armenians (in contrast to Obama's
commitment to support Armenian claims) and his familiarity with and
appreciation of Turkey's strategic importance to U.S. interests, McCain
had appeared to be the more favorable choice (Today's Zaman, February
21). Similarly, the widespread belief that Obama's position on certain
issues might damage Turkey's interests led many Turkish-Americans to
support McCain despite their overall preference for Obama (Newsweek,
November 1).
In his campaign Obama partly overcame some of Turkey's concerns,
and grew more sensitive to the strategic value of Turkish-American
relations. His new draft agenda for partnership with Europe
had a section entitled "Restoring the Strategic Partnership
with Turkey." Having emphasized the negative legacy of the Bush
administration, Obama has promised to "lead a diplomatic effort to
bring together Turkish and Iraqi Kurdish leaders and negotiate a
comprehensive agreement that deals with the PKK threat, guarantees
Turkey's territorial integrity,... [and supports Turkey's] efforts
to join the European Union." Obama appeared to satisfy Turkey's
concerns on the issues of Cyprus and nuclear proliferation in Iran
(www.barackobama.com/pdf/fact_sheet_europe_fi nal.pdf).
The specifics of Obama's foreign policy have not yet materialized;
hence, they are full of uncertainties for Turkey. Obama's broad goals,
such as supporting global peacemaking efforts, buttressing regional
allies, and refocusing on energy security in regions surrounding
Turkey, are definitely welcome to Turkey and partly explain the Turkish
leaders' warm congratulations. Moving away from militarization of
U.S. policies in favor of diplomacy, for instance, resonates well with
Turkey's new role as a regional peacemaker. Now that Turkey will be
on the UN Security Council, cooperation between the two countries in
this area will be increasingly important. Erdogan therefore expressed
his hope that Barack Obama would contribute to international peace,
particularly in the Middle East. Erdogan reiterated his belief that
the two countries would maintain strategic relations. Erdogan is
due to visit the United States on November 15 and reportedly plans
to meet Obama during that trip (Taraf, November 6). The Turkish
business community, which has started to feel the effects of the
global financial crisis, is also positive about Obama's election. They
believe Obama is better placed to solve the financial crisis (Dunya,
November 6).
Nonetheless, it remains to be seen how the Obama-Biden ticket's
previously announced plans about such issues as the rapid
withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and possible partition of
the country and its controversial statements about Cyprus will
affect Turkish-American relations (see "Yeni Amerikan Baskani
Obama ve Turk Amerikan Iliskileri," ASAM Bakis, No.8, November
2008; www.asam.org.tr/temp/temp1181.pdf). Obama's persistent
and unequivocal commitment to the Armenian interpretation
of the events of 1915 and the Karabakh conflict remain the
main roadblock to improving Turkish-American relations under
the new administration (www.obama.com). Just days before the
election the Obama-Biden campaign reaffirmed its pledge to
recognize the events of 1915 as genocide (ANCA, Press Release,
www.anca.org/press_releases/press_release s.php?prid=1620). Many
Turkish foreign affairs experts believe that mismanagement of the
"G" word issue might not only strain relations but also negatively
affect ongoing efforts for reconciliation between Azerbaijan, Armenia,
and Turkey (www.cnnturk.com, November 5).
Erdogan was optimistic about avoiding such a head-on collision. He
hopes that the promises made on the Armenian theme by Obama the
candidate will remain election rhetoric for Obama the President. He
believes that Obama will tone down these arguments when he assumes
office, because there is a dimension of Turkish-American relations
dictated by strategic reality that will not be altered by a change in
the White House (Star, November 5). The Turkish leader had demonstrated
a similar optimism about the moderating effect of holding office
with regard to Obama's reported reference to Turkey as an "occupier"
in Cyprus. Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan maintained, however,
that this was part of campaign politics and once elected Obama would
adjust his position (Zaman, October 20).
As the AKP leaders' own experience in power has shown, political
office comes with certain responsibilities and definitely has a
transformative impact on political leaders. The party believes that
"common sense" might well prevail and that Obama will step back
from some of his election rhetoric, which might help avoid tension
in bilateral relations. What the AKP's own experience also shows,
however, is that reformists' return to former practices can entail
certain costs. If Obama goes down a similar path, following the
dictates of "strategic reality," he will fail to meet worldwide
expectations for drastic changes in American foreign policy, including
in Turkish-American relations.
By Saban Kardas
Eurasia Daily Monitor
Nov 7 2008
DC
Many Turks joined the worldwide rejoicing over the Democrats' victory
and Barack Obama's election as the next president of the United
States. The Turkish public is sympathetic to Obama's call for change
as they find parallels in his story to Turkey's experience with the
reformist wave brought about by the Justice and Development Party's
(AKP) landslide electoral victory in 2002.
President Abdullah Gul, in a letter to President-elect Obama,
reflected this positive mood in Turkey: "Your message of change and
hope is one that meets the expectations of our day. It is a message
that Turkey embraces" (www.cankaya.gov.tr, November 5). Similarly, by
emphasizing Obama's background, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
presented Obama's victory as evidence of the American political
system's democratic credentials (www.cnnturk.com, November 5). Obama's
vision on pressing issues of American politics aside, his promises
of reorienting America's role in the world instilled hope for a new
direction in American foreign policy, hence reinvigorating the Turkish
American relations in the wake of the Bush administration.
Growing anti-Americanism in Turkey, caused by the current
administration's unpopular policies, has been one of the factors
adversely affecting Turkish-American relations. Several studies
have found that the Turkish people harbored unfavorable views
about the United States and preferred the Democrat Obama over
Republican John McCain (Pew Global Attitudes Survey, June 12;
www.pewglobal.org/reports/pdf/260.pdf). Given the positive image of
Obama among the Turkish people, analysts expect him to take important
steps toward saving the United States' image in Turkey and helping
to revitalize the relationship (Turkish Daily News, November 6).
When the candidates' views on specific issues of concern to Turkey were
compared, however, many within the Turkish policy community tended
to favor McCain. Given his refusal to pledge to recognize the events
of 1915 as genocide against the Armenians (in contrast to Obama's
commitment to support Armenian claims) and his familiarity with and
appreciation of Turkey's strategic importance to U.S. interests, McCain
had appeared to be the more favorable choice (Today's Zaman, February
21). Similarly, the widespread belief that Obama's position on certain
issues might damage Turkey's interests led many Turkish-Americans to
support McCain despite their overall preference for Obama (Newsweek,
November 1).
In his campaign Obama partly overcame some of Turkey's concerns,
and grew more sensitive to the strategic value of Turkish-American
relations. His new draft agenda for partnership with Europe
had a section entitled "Restoring the Strategic Partnership
with Turkey." Having emphasized the negative legacy of the Bush
administration, Obama has promised to "lead a diplomatic effort to
bring together Turkish and Iraqi Kurdish leaders and negotiate a
comprehensive agreement that deals with the PKK threat, guarantees
Turkey's territorial integrity,... [and supports Turkey's] efforts
to join the European Union." Obama appeared to satisfy Turkey's
concerns on the issues of Cyprus and nuclear proliferation in Iran
(www.barackobama.com/pdf/fact_sheet_europe_fi nal.pdf).
The specifics of Obama's foreign policy have not yet materialized;
hence, they are full of uncertainties for Turkey. Obama's broad goals,
such as supporting global peacemaking efforts, buttressing regional
allies, and refocusing on energy security in regions surrounding
Turkey, are definitely welcome to Turkey and partly explain the Turkish
leaders' warm congratulations. Moving away from militarization of
U.S. policies in favor of diplomacy, for instance, resonates well with
Turkey's new role as a regional peacemaker. Now that Turkey will be
on the UN Security Council, cooperation between the two countries in
this area will be increasingly important. Erdogan therefore expressed
his hope that Barack Obama would contribute to international peace,
particularly in the Middle East. Erdogan reiterated his belief that
the two countries would maintain strategic relations. Erdogan is
due to visit the United States on November 15 and reportedly plans
to meet Obama during that trip (Taraf, November 6). The Turkish
business community, which has started to feel the effects of the
global financial crisis, is also positive about Obama's election. They
believe Obama is better placed to solve the financial crisis (Dunya,
November 6).
Nonetheless, it remains to be seen how the Obama-Biden ticket's
previously announced plans about such issues as the rapid
withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and possible partition of
the country and its controversial statements about Cyprus will
affect Turkish-American relations (see "Yeni Amerikan Baskani
Obama ve Turk Amerikan Iliskileri," ASAM Bakis, No.8, November
2008; www.asam.org.tr/temp/temp1181.pdf). Obama's persistent
and unequivocal commitment to the Armenian interpretation
of the events of 1915 and the Karabakh conflict remain the
main roadblock to improving Turkish-American relations under
the new administration (www.obama.com). Just days before the
election the Obama-Biden campaign reaffirmed its pledge to
recognize the events of 1915 as genocide (ANCA, Press Release,
www.anca.org/press_releases/press_release s.php?prid=1620). Many
Turkish foreign affairs experts believe that mismanagement of the
"G" word issue might not only strain relations but also negatively
affect ongoing efforts for reconciliation between Azerbaijan, Armenia,
and Turkey (www.cnnturk.com, November 5).
Erdogan was optimistic about avoiding such a head-on collision. He
hopes that the promises made on the Armenian theme by Obama the
candidate will remain election rhetoric for Obama the President. He
believes that Obama will tone down these arguments when he assumes
office, because there is a dimension of Turkish-American relations
dictated by strategic reality that will not be altered by a change in
the White House (Star, November 5). The Turkish leader had demonstrated
a similar optimism about the moderating effect of holding office
with regard to Obama's reported reference to Turkey as an "occupier"
in Cyprus. Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan maintained, however,
that this was part of campaign politics and once elected Obama would
adjust his position (Zaman, October 20).
As the AKP leaders' own experience in power has shown, political
office comes with certain responsibilities and definitely has a
transformative impact on political leaders. The party believes that
"common sense" might well prevail and that Obama will step back
from some of his election rhetoric, which might help avoid tension
in bilateral relations. What the AKP's own experience also shows,
however, is that reformists' return to former practices can entail
certain costs. If Obama goes down a similar path, following the
dictates of "strategic reality," he will fail to meet worldwide
expectations for drastic changes in American foreign policy, including
in Turkish-American relations.