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TURKEY NOT FRETTING OVER POSSIBLE 'GENOCIDE' BLOW AFTER DAVOS STORM
Today's Zaman
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.d o?load=detay&link=165785&bolum=100
Jan 3 2009
Turkey
Jewish-American groups may reconsider their support for Turkey against
Armenian efforts to pass a resolution in the US Congress recognizing
claims that Anatolian Armenians were subjected to genocide in the
World War I era in the wake of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's
walkout at the Davos summit last week, but Turkish officials and
analysts expect little fallout from decreased Jewish lobby support.
"The Jewish lobby's influence should not be overestimated," said Sedat
Laciner, head of the Ankara-based International Strategic Research
Organization (ISRO/USAK). "Many Jewish-American groups already decided
to cut support for Turkey in the face of Armenian efforts in 2007,"
he told Today's Zaman. A major Jewish-American organization, the
Anti-Defamation League (ADL), reversed its long-held stance in 2007
and said it recognized Armenian genocide claims, although it stood
against congressional resolutions to the same effect.
Last week Erdogan stormed off the stage at Davos after an
angry exchange with Israeli President Shimon Peres over Israel's
deadly operation in Gaza last month, which killed more than 1,300
Palestinians, almost half of whom were civilians. The incident sparked
comments in the Israeli and Armenian media that a genocide resolution,
shelved twice in the past in the US House of Representatives at the
initiative of the administration, will this time be inevitable because
Jewish groups will no longer be lobbying against it.
Although risks run higher this year for US recognition of the alleged
genocide due to the campaign promises made by President Barack Obama
to Armenian-American voters, few in Ankara believe that the decrease
in support by the Jewish lobby in the aftermath of the Davos incident
will have a major impact on whether or not Obama will uphold his
pre-election promises.
One reason for this, says former Foreign Minister Ä°lter Turkmen,
is that Obama has also committed himself to fewer contacts with the
lobbying groups in his decision-making processes.
Secondly, says Laciner, what matters is the position of the
administration, not the Jewish-American groups. Obama will issue a
traditional message on April 24, the day that Armenians commemorate
as the beginning of the alleged genocide. He is more likely than his
Republican predecessor, George W. Bush, to use the word "genocide" in
his message, given his earlier public pledges, but when it comes to a
congressional resolution, the US will follow its national interests,
according to Laciner. "When a similar resolution was shelved last
year at the House of Representatives, it was the administration,
not Jewish lobbying, that made it possible," he said. "The Armenian
question is a derivative of overall Turkey-US relations. It pops up
every time there is a problem in the course of their ties. It was on
the agenda heavily in the past years because of the Iraq crisis in
Turkey-US relations and it was shelved eventually because the crisis
was overcome and cooperation took root."
"The Armenian genocide is an international lie," reads a poster held by
participants of a demonstration protesting against claims of genocide
by Armenians.
The Obama administration is expected to work with Turkey as it readies
for a withdrawal from Iraq in the next couple of years. Obama is also
expected to watch closely a process of rapprochement under way between
Turkey and Armenia, which arose when President Abdullah Gul visited
Yerevan to watch a football game between national teams of the two
countries last September. Observers say the Obama administration will
not want to harm this process by antagonizing Turkey.
But even in the event of an April 24 message by Obama mentioning
"genocide," this may not be devastating for Turks. "The public is
accustomed to the idea that Obama might do something that the previous
administrations did not do on the Armenian issue. It's been out there
since the election campaign," said Laciner.
Bring it on!
Separately, sources from the Israeli parliament say a bill previously
submitted there for acknowledging the incidents as genocide that
was not adopted last year is more than likely to make its way into
the Israeli parliament once again this year. Zeev Elkin, a member of
Israel's Likud party, said recently, "Ankara's stance has proven the
absolute inevitability of the recognition of the Armenian genocide
by the Israeli parliament."
But the mood in the government is tranquil and sources close to the
government say Turkey will not be lobbying as actively as before
to stop the US and Israeli legislatures from accepting the Armenian
allegations. Currently 24 countries have accepted the Armenian claims
by passing bills recognizing the 1915 events as genocide.
The government's relaxed stance could also be observed in remarks
Foreign Minister Ali Babacan offered to journalists ahead of last
week's Davos summit. Babacan stated that Turkey's harsh stance on
Gaza did indeed irritate certain Jewish agencies, but added that
the strategic relationship between Turkey and Israel would not be
damaged. Acknowledging that the Jewish lobby's influence in the US
Congress and administration was indisputable, Babacan also recalled
that there existed differences in opinion between various Jewish
groups. "Turkey has nothing to fear in history. We offered to set
up a commission of historians, but Armenia did not accept this. We
still insist on this proposal," Babacan said.
Speaking to Today's Zaman, government spokesperson and Deputy Prime
Minister Cemil Cicek said he believed the tension between Turkey and
Israel would not affect relations between the two countries. He said
the Jewish lobby giving up its support for Turkey on the Armenian
question would not change historical facts.
Noting that Turkey has developed good relationships with its neighbors,
Cicek stressed that Armenia is the only exception to this. He said
the reason for Turkey's failure to establish a better relationship
with this neighbor was the Armenian diaspora and the Armenian
government. Arguing that Armenia suffers the most because of its
hostility, Cicek continued: "The Armenian diaspora makes a living on
enmity toward Turkey and Turks. They say the Jewish lobby will now
support the Armenian claims, because this is what they want to happen.
Turkey-US relations have been mutually beneficial since 1950. They
are good for both sides. They don't make decisions on genocide based
on a statement or a stance, but looking back at long-term historical
decisions. These decisions are made looking from various angles and
after calculating the pros and cons fully. But, of course, there are
those who hope that it will work the other way, and make propaganda
in that direction."
Justice and Development Party (AK Party) parliamentary group deputy
chairman Bekir Bozdag told Today's Zaman that after Erdogan's reaction
in Davos last week, neither the Armenian diaspora nor the Jewish
lobby would act as daringly as they have before.
Bozdag said Erdogan's harsh reaction showed the world Turkey's
strength. He also recalled that Turkey had offered to set up
an independent commission of historians to study the events of
1915. "Those who accuse Turkey of having committed genocide should
think carefully about their future decisions. Our prime minister's
words have shown Turkey's place and strength in the world. This is
why the support behind genocide bills will be less. Those working
against Turkey will not be as free as before. I don't think genocide
bills will be brought on the agenda as daringly as before. Turkey,
with its stance, has confirmed its role as a bridge between the EU
and the Islamic world. Those who have calculations in the Middle East,
the Caucasus and Asia will have to consider Turkey's presence."
He added that Erdogan's move had earned him great respect among
the peoples of Muslim countries and the third world. "The Armenian
lobby and other lobbies supporting it are now faced with a tougher
task. From now on, they won't be able to make any country they want do
whatever they want. Our prime minister's reaction is an opportunity
for Turkey. Those who are against Turkey will have to think twice
after this point," he said.
--Boundary_(ID_BkaaXhTak0wd2bqcv/Hw6g)--
Today's Zaman
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.d o?load=detay&link=165785&bolum=100
Jan 3 2009
Turkey
Jewish-American groups may reconsider their support for Turkey against
Armenian efforts to pass a resolution in the US Congress recognizing
claims that Anatolian Armenians were subjected to genocide in the
World War I era in the wake of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's
walkout at the Davos summit last week, but Turkish officials and
analysts expect little fallout from decreased Jewish lobby support.
"The Jewish lobby's influence should not be overestimated," said Sedat
Laciner, head of the Ankara-based International Strategic Research
Organization (ISRO/USAK). "Many Jewish-American groups already decided
to cut support for Turkey in the face of Armenian efforts in 2007,"
he told Today's Zaman. A major Jewish-American organization, the
Anti-Defamation League (ADL), reversed its long-held stance in 2007
and said it recognized Armenian genocide claims, although it stood
against congressional resolutions to the same effect.
Last week Erdogan stormed off the stage at Davos after an
angry exchange with Israeli President Shimon Peres over Israel's
deadly operation in Gaza last month, which killed more than 1,300
Palestinians, almost half of whom were civilians. The incident sparked
comments in the Israeli and Armenian media that a genocide resolution,
shelved twice in the past in the US House of Representatives at the
initiative of the administration, will this time be inevitable because
Jewish groups will no longer be lobbying against it.
Although risks run higher this year for US recognition of the alleged
genocide due to the campaign promises made by President Barack Obama
to Armenian-American voters, few in Ankara believe that the decrease
in support by the Jewish lobby in the aftermath of the Davos incident
will have a major impact on whether or not Obama will uphold his
pre-election promises.
One reason for this, says former Foreign Minister Ä°lter Turkmen,
is that Obama has also committed himself to fewer contacts with the
lobbying groups in his decision-making processes.
Secondly, says Laciner, what matters is the position of the
administration, not the Jewish-American groups. Obama will issue a
traditional message on April 24, the day that Armenians commemorate
as the beginning of the alleged genocide. He is more likely than his
Republican predecessor, George W. Bush, to use the word "genocide" in
his message, given his earlier public pledges, but when it comes to a
congressional resolution, the US will follow its national interests,
according to Laciner. "When a similar resolution was shelved last
year at the House of Representatives, it was the administration,
not Jewish lobbying, that made it possible," he said. "The Armenian
question is a derivative of overall Turkey-US relations. It pops up
every time there is a problem in the course of their ties. It was on
the agenda heavily in the past years because of the Iraq crisis in
Turkey-US relations and it was shelved eventually because the crisis
was overcome and cooperation took root."
"The Armenian genocide is an international lie," reads a poster held by
participants of a demonstration protesting against claims of genocide
by Armenians.
The Obama administration is expected to work with Turkey as it readies
for a withdrawal from Iraq in the next couple of years. Obama is also
expected to watch closely a process of rapprochement under way between
Turkey and Armenia, which arose when President Abdullah Gul visited
Yerevan to watch a football game between national teams of the two
countries last September. Observers say the Obama administration will
not want to harm this process by antagonizing Turkey.
But even in the event of an April 24 message by Obama mentioning
"genocide," this may not be devastating for Turks. "The public is
accustomed to the idea that Obama might do something that the previous
administrations did not do on the Armenian issue. It's been out there
since the election campaign," said Laciner.
Bring it on!
Separately, sources from the Israeli parliament say a bill previously
submitted there for acknowledging the incidents as genocide that
was not adopted last year is more than likely to make its way into
the Israeli parliament once again this year. Zeev Elkin, a member of
Israel's Likud party, said recently, "Ankara's stance has proven the
absolute inevitability of the recognition of the Armenian genocide
by the Israeli parliament."
But the mood in the government is tranquil and sources close to the
government say Turkey will not be lobbying as actively as before
to stop the US and Israeli legislatures from accepting the Armenian
allegations. Currently 24 countries have accepted the Armenian claims
by passing bills recognizing the 1915 events as genocide.
The government's relaxed stance could also be observed in remarks
Foreign Minister Ali Babacan offered to journalists ahead of last
week's Davos summit. Babacan stated that Turkey's harsh stance on
Gaza did indeed irritate certain Jewish agencies, but added that
the strategic relationship between Turkey and Israel would not be
damaged. Acknowledging that the Jewish lobby's influence in the US
Congress and administration was indisputable, Babacan also recalled
that there existed differences in opinion between various Jewish
groups. "Turkey has nothing to fear in history. We offered to set
up a commission of historians, but Armenia did not accept this. We
still insist on this proposal," Babacan said.
Speaking to Today's Zaman, government spokesperson and Deputy Prime
Minister Cemil Cicek said he believed the tension between Turkey and
Israel would not affect relations between the two countries. He said
the Jewish lobby giving up its support for Turkey on the Armenian
question would not change historical facts.
Noting that Turkey has developed good relationships with its neighbors,
Cicek stressed that Armenia is the only exception to this. He said
the reason for Turkey's failure to establish a better relationship
with this neighbor was the Armenian diaspora and the Armenian
government. Arguing that Armenia suffers the most because of its
hostility, Cicek continued: "The Armenian diaspora makes a living on
enmity toward Turkey and Turks. They say the Jewish lobby will now
support the Armenian claims, because this is what they want to happen.
Turkey-US relations have been mutually beneficial since 1950. They
are good for both sides. They don't make decisions on genocide based
on a statement or a stance, but looking back at long-term historical
decisions. These decisions are made looking from various angles and
after calculating the pros and cons fully. But, of course, there are
those who hope that it will work the other way, and make propaganda
in that direction."
Justice and Development Party (AK Party) parliamentary group deputy
chairman Bekir Bozdag told Today's Zaman that after Erdogan's reaction
in Davos last week, neither the Armenian diaspora nor the Jewish
lobby would act as daringly as they have before.
Bozdag said Erdogan's harsh reaction showed the world Turkey's
strength. He also recalled that Turkey had offered to set up
an independent commission of historians to study the events of
1915. "Those who accuse Turkey of having committed genocide should
think carefully about their future decisions. Our prime minister's
words have shown Turkey's place and strength in the world. This is
why the support behind genocide bills will be less. Those working
against Turkey will not be as free as before. I don't think genocide
bills will be brought on the agenda as daringly as before. Turkey,
with its stance, has confirmed its role as a bridge between the EU
and the Islamic world. Those who have calculations in the Middle East,
the Caucasus and Asia will have to consider Turkey's presence."
He added that Erdogan's move had earned him great respect among
the peoples of Muslim countries and the third world. "The Armenian
lobby and other lobbies supporting it are now faced with a tougher
task. From now on, they won't be able to make any country they want do
whatever they want. Our prime minister's reaction is an opportunity
for Turkey. Those who are against Turkey will have to think twice
after this point," he said.
--Boundary_(ID_BkaaXhTak0wd2bqcv/Hw6g)--