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THUS FAR MOSCOW OUTNUMBERS WASHINGTON IN LEVERS OF PRESSURE
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
07.07.2009 GMT+04:00
The only thing Obama managed to do in Moscow was the agreement on
the transit of military freight through the territory of Russia.
Against the background of the constantly changing situation in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation, an impression is created that the
Armenian-Turkish relations are in a certain sense frozen and are even
brought to naught. In fact, after the "historical" visit of Ambassadors
Smbatyan and Bulbuloglu to NKR, Armenia and Azerbaijan and after the
rather sharp statements issued by the Karabakh side following the
ambassadors' visit, all the discussions about the normalization of
relations and opening of the border remained beyond the bounds of
the main question. In this seeming recession rather a big role was
played by the visit of Barack Obama to Moscow.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ However, let us not forget, that the Obama-Medvedev
meeting was preceded by the Moscow visit of Turkish Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu, after which the Armenian-Turkish relations again
came to the fore, this time without coordination with the Karabakh
conflict regulation. The turn of Turkish policy is notable but it
didn't originate out of nowhere. After the under oath promises of
Erdogan in Baku, assuring that Turkey would never leave her "brothers"
face to face with the Armenians, in the Turkish society there began
to sound somewhat different statements. As it is customary in the
whole world, the need for the quickest restoration of diplomatic
relations with Armenia was voiced by diplomats, who "wished to
remain unnamed". At the same time, as if in unison with it, sounded
the statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Edward
Nalbandyan, who assured that the Armenian-Turkish negotiations had
not ceased even for a minute; moreover, they continued at full speed.
What is going on in the region and especially in Armenia shows that
the USA and Russia seriously fight for the position of the leader. No
matter how hard Baku tries to present herself in the role of the key
player, she cannot succeed. By the way, the possible appointment
of Mathew Bryza to the post of the Ambassador to Azerbaijan does
not speak in favor of Baku either. Now Russia has more chances of
getting the winner's place in the struggle, for the latter outnumbers
America in levers of pressure, the most important of them being
the notorious project of Nabucco, whose route, until now, is not
finally fixed. Neither is it determined who is going to fill the pipe
with gas, since by buying up almost all the Azerbaijani gas Russia
sent Nabucco onto the verge of disappearance both as an economic
and political project. Let us recall that Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan was
truly a political project and even now it brings no profit. But it
is realized, and Turkey together with Azerbaijan have trumps in the
regional game. The situation is more complicated with the gas pipe:
Georgia falls out of any project because of her instability; no one
wants to deal with the post-election Iran. Remain only Turkey and
Russia, the latter trying to foil the gas pipe into Europe at any
cost. And it is exactly where the struggle for Armenia begins, this
fight bearing an exceptionally pragmatic character. Is Armenia able
to become the country, through which it is worthwhile to pull a gas
pipe. In a word, nothing personal. It's only business.
As far as the methods of pressure on Turkey are concerned,
they are rather many in Moscow. Let us name only one of them -
the Kars agreement, which can be taken out onto the table of the
Armenian-Turkish negotiations any minute. Moreover, Russia can
blackmail Ankara for denunciation of the treaty. It would be almost
deadly for Turkey: there immediately appear related problems like
Ajaria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Armenian issue appears to be
the most easily solvable. The USA hurries Turkey and again, for the
same reason, either peace or a second Iraq-Afghanistan is necessary
in the region. There is no third option for the USA for the simple
reason that "Byzantine games" are alien to Democrats. America may
engage in another conflict. Surely, it won't be one like that of the
Near East or Afghanistan, but enough for the countries of the South
Caucasus. And there is no confidence whatever in the fact that someone
will come off clear unless Moscow once again is able to achieve a
certain positive result. The trouble is that Moscow is no longer
what it used to be before the Chechen war. Neither is the USA under
Barack Obama the same as the America under George Bush Senior. And
no matter how hard Obama tries to make his country more attractive
for Moscow, he achieves no results. And the Medvedev-Obama meeting
demonstrated it best: not a single serious document was signed at
it. Well, the Memorandum of Understanding cannot really be considered
a serious agreement. But the fact is that it was the only product of
Obama's two-day visit. At least, it was so for the community that was
obviously waiting for something significant and weighty. Apparently,
behind the scenes remained also the agreed arrangements on the
Armenian-Turkish negotiations, the Karabakh conflict settlement
and Iran. Generalizations on ABM, START and Afghanistan are all
on the paper. The only thing Obama managed to do in Moscow was the
understanding on the transit of military freight through the territory
of Russia. It is a very modest success against the background of the
widely advertised visit, isn't it? But, by the way, even that might
not have occured, so the USA can still boast. And all the talks on
"reload" and the hopes of Mikhail Saakashvili remained only good
intentions. However, so it had to be. In politics, when the rates are
too high, it is senseless to hurry. You can still succeed in bluffing
but you shouldn't try...
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
07.07.2009 GMT+04:00
The only thing Obama managed to do in Moscow was the agreement on
the transit of military freight through the territory of Russia.
Against the background of the constantly changing situation in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation, an impression is created that the
Armenian-Turkish relations are in a certain sense frozen and are even
brought to naught. In fact, after the "historical" visit of Ambassadors
Smbatyan and Bulbuloglu to NKR, Armenia and Azerbaijan and after the
rather sharp statements issued by the Karabakh side following the
ambassadors' visit, all the discussions about the normalization of
relations and opening of the border remained beyond the bounds of
the main question. In this seeming recession rather a big role was
played by the visit of Barack Obama to Moscow.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ However, let us not forget, that the Obama-Medvedev
meeting was preceded by the Moscow visit of Turkish Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu, after which the Armenian-Turkish relations again
came to the fore, this time without coordination with the Karabakh
conflict regulation. The turn of Turkish policy is notable but it
didn't originate out of nowhere. After the under oath promises of
Erdogan in Baku, assuring that Turkey would never leave her "brothers"
face to face with the Armenians, in the Turkish society there began
to sound somewhat different statements. As it is customary in the
whole world, the need for the quickest restoration of diplomatic
relations with Armenia was voiced by diplomats, who "wished to
remain unnamed". At the same time, as if in unison with it, sounded
the statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Edward
Nalbandyan, who assured that the Armenian-Turkish negotiations had
not ceased even for a minute; moreover, they continued at full speed.
What is going on in the region and especially in Armenia shows that
the USA and Russia seriously fight for the position of the leader. No
matter how hard Baku tries to present herself in the role of the key
player, she cannot succeed. By the way, the possible appointment
of Mathew Bryza to the post of the Ambassador to Azerbaijan does
not speak in favor of Baku either. Now Russia has more chances of
getting the winner's place in the struggle, for the latter outnumbers
America in levers of pressure, the most important of them being
the notorious project of Nabucco, whose route, until now, is not
finally fixed. Neither is it determined who is going to fill the pipe
with gas, since by buying up almost all the Azerbaijani gas Russia
sent Nabucco onto the verge of disappearance both as an economic
and political project. Let us recall that Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan was
truly a political project and even now it brings no profit. But it
is realized, and Turkey together with Azerbaijan have trumps in the
regional game. The situation is more complicated with the gas pipe:
Georgia falls out of any project because of her instability; no one
wants to deal with the post-election Iran. Remain only Turkey and
Russia, the latter trying to foil the gas pipe into Europe at any
cost. And it is exactly where the struggle for Armenia begins, this
fight bearing an exceptionally pragmatic character. Is Armenia able
to become the country, through which it is worthwhile to pull a gas
pipe. In a word, nothing personal. It's only business.
As far as the methods of pressure on Turkey are concerned,
they are rather many in Moscow. Let us name only one of them -
the Kars agreement, which can be taken out onto the table of the
Armenian-Turkish negotiations any minute. Moreover, Russia can
blackmail Ankara for denunciation of the treaty. It would be almost
deadly for Turkey: there immediately appear related problems like
Ajaria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Armenian issue appears to be
the most easily solvable. The USA hurries Turkey and again, for the
same reason, either peace or a second Iraq-Afghanistan is necessary
in the region. There is no third option for the USA for the simple
reason that "Byzantine games" are alien to Democrats. America may
engage in another conflict. Surely, it won't be one like that of the
Near East or Afghanistan, but enough for the countries of the South
Caucasus. And there is no confidence whatever in the fact that someone
will come off clear unless Moscow once again is able to achieve a
certain positive result. The trouble is that Moscow is no longer
what it used to be before the Chechen war. Neither is the USA under
Barack Obama the same as the America under George Bush Senior. And
no matter how hard Obama tries to make his country more attractive
for Moscow, he achieves no results. And the Medvedev-Obama meeting
demonstrated it best: not a single serious document was signed at
it. Well, the Memorandum of Understanding cannot really be considered
a serious agreement. But the fact is that it was the only product of
Obama's two-day visit. At least, it was so for the community that was
obviously waiting for something significant and weighty. Apparently,
behind the scenes remained also the agreed arrangements on the
Armenian-Turkish negotiations, the Karabakh conflict settlement
and Iran. Generalizations on ABM, START and Afghanistan are all
on the paper. The only thing Obama managed to do in Moscow was the
understanding on the transit of military freight through the territory
of Russia. It is a very modest success against the background of the
widely advertised visit, isn't it? But, by the way, even that might
not have occured, so the USA can still boast. And all the talks on
"reload" and the hopes of Mikhail Saakashvili remained only good
intentions. However, so it had to be. In politics, when the rates are
too high, it is senseless to hurry. You can still succeed in bluffing
but you shouldn't try...