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Five years forward¦ the Nagorny Karabakh conflict
Conciliation Resources (London, UK)
July 22, 2009
Our Karabakh 2014 project was devised to try to stimulate discussion
about where this conflict is heading and where the best hopes for a
peaceful resolution lie.
Conciliation Resources commissioned papers from three Armenian and
three Azerbaijani analysts, asking them to depict scenarios for how
the conflict might look in 2014. They presented these papers at a
seminar at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in
London on July 10, 2009, with former US Karabakh negotiator Carey
Cavanaugh leading a discussion in the final session.
We plan to publish updated versions of these papers in the autumn and
hold roundtable discussions in the region. The project is funded by
the UK Conflict Prevention Pool through the Consortium Initiative. For
further information please contact Tom de Waal ([email protected]) and
Laurence Broers ([email protected]).
Karabakh 2014 Scenario Papers
Shain Abbasov is the deputy chief of party at the IREX/USAID Media
Advancement Project in Azerbaijan. He is also a partner in S&A
Partnership Ltd, Baku-based privately owned consulting company. Shain
is also a correspondent of Eurasianet (www.eurasianet.org). He has a
master's degree from Azerbaijan's State Oil Academy. In 2003-2004
Shain Abbasov was Reagan-Fascell Fellow at the National Endowment for
Democracy in Washington, DC. In 2008 he was Drapper-Hills Fellow of
the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford
University. Prior to that he spent more than 10 years as a print
journalist in Azerbaijan. He was deputy editor-in-chief at Echo and
Zerkalo daily newspapers in Baku.
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/abbasov2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/abbasov_rus.pdf
`In the next five years the regime in Azerbaijan is likely to have
sufficient administrative, financial and information of conflict
resolution, without any trouble for itself.'
-----
Karen Bekaryan has a doctorate in mathematics from Yerevan State
University. He worked as a lecturer in political science, European
integration and analysis for seven years and has been an expert for
the Foreign Relations Committee of the Armenian parliament since
1999. Karen has been the chairman of the NGO European Integration
since 2002 and director of Armedia Information Analytical Agency since
2006 and a member of the Public Council of Republic of Armenia since
2009. He has authored about 100 articles on European issues, political
issues, foreign relations and other topics.
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/bekaryan2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/ments/2014/be karyan_rus.pdf
`Irrespective of NK's political status, a comprehensive engagement
with civil society and administration of the NKR should be undertaken
as from today. The earliest possible return of the NKR to the
negotiating format could make the resolution process more realistic
and productive.'
-----
Tabib Huseynov is an analyst with the International Crisis Group, a
global conflict prevention and resolution think-tank, where he
conducts research and drafts reports on political and conflict issues
in Azerbaijan and wider Caucasus region. From Shusha in Nagorny
Karabakh, he regularly takes part in dialogue and academic meetings
about the Karabakh conflict and the Caucasus region and has written
various independent publications, including a monograph 'Resolving
Ethno-territorial Conflicts: a case for mountainous Karabakh` (Berlin,
2008). He holds an MA in International Relations and European Studies
from the Central European University in Budapest, Hungary. The views
expressed in Tabib's Karabakh 2014 paper are his own.
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/huseynov2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-rnts/2014/huseynov_rus.pdf
`A consensus-based plebiscite scenario is apparently the best possible
option for a peaceful and speedy solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. However, it will be hard to convince the parties of this
option as long as they think in zero-sum categories.'
-----
Manvel Sarkisyan comes from Hadrut in Nagorny Karabakh. He trained as
an architect in the Baku Engineering-Construction Institute and
practiced architecture in Stepanakert. After serving in the Soviet
army, he spent six years as a specialist on architectural history in
Armenia's Department for the Protection of Cultural Monuments. In 1988
he was one of the first members of the Armenian Karabakh movement. In
1992 he was appointed permanent representative of Nagorny Karabakh in
Armenia and in 1993 was made an adviser to the foreign minister of
Nagorny Karabakh. In 1995 he worked as an expert on international
relations in the Armenian Centre for Strategic and National
Studies. In 2000-05 he was aide on political issues to the president
of the Nagorny Karabakh Republic. Since then he has worked as an
expert for the Caucasus Centre and the Armenian Centre for Strategic
and National Studies. In 1992-5 he took part in many rounds of
negotiations on the Karabakh conflict. [The terminology used here is
the author's choice, not Conciliation Resources.]
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/sarkisyan2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/sarkisyan_rus.pdf
`The fact is that some territories previously categorized as
`unrecognized entities' have moved on to the category of
`semi-recognized states'. This has led to changes in the state of
international security and stability. And the `culprits' are the major
powers themselves.'
-----
Rashad Shirinov studied International Relations at Baku State
University and then did an MA in Political Science and International
Relations at Bosphorus University in Istanbul. In 2007 he was FCO
Senior Chevening Fellow at the University of York, UK. In 2007-2008 he
visited Monterey Institute of International Studies to earn a
certificate in WMD non-proliferation. He has worked for the OSCE and
IFES in Baku and is currently employed as political party program
officer with the US National Democratic Institute for International
Affairs in Azerbaijan.
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/shirinov2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/shirinov_rus.pdf
`The autonomy of Karabakh would require more respect, discussion and
compromise on behalf of the Azerbaijani government. This would be a
test for the Azerbaijani ruling elite as it has little culture of
political power-sharing.'
-----
Mikael Zolyan is a political scientist and historian from Yerevan. He
studied in Yerevan State University and the Central European
University in Budapest. In 2005 he received a doctorate in history
from the Ethnology Faculty at Yerevan State University. In 2008 he
studied at UCLA. His main interests include the study of nationality,
ethnicity and ethno-political conflicts and in particular issues about
the relationship of historica and national identity.
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/zolyan2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasusument/document s/2014/zolyan_rus.pdf
`Any solution, which is worked out by the major powers and imposed on
parties to the conflict, is not only unsustainable but represents a
potential time-bomb. The `geopolitical paradigm' ignores the
importance of developments within the local societies.'
http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus /karabakh-2014.php
Conciliation Resources (London, UK)
July 22, 2009
Our Karabakh 2014 project was devised to try to stimulate discussion
about where this conflict is heading and where the best hopes for a
peaceful resolution lie.
Conciliation Resources commissioned papers from three Armenian and
three Azerbaijani analysts, asking them to depict scenarios for how
the conflict might look in 2014. They presented these papers at a
seminar at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in
London on July 10, 2009, with former US Karabakh negotiator Carey
Cavanaugh leading a discussion in the final session.
We plan to publish updated versions of these papers in the autumn and
hold roundtable discussions in the region. The project is funded by
the UK Conflict Prevention Pool through the Consortium Initiative. For
further information please contact Tom de Waal ([email protected]) and
Laurence Broers ([email protected]).
Karabakh 2014 Scenario Papers
Shain Abbasov is the deputy chief of party at the IREX/USAID Media
Advancement Project in Azerbaijan. He is also a partner in S&A
Partnership Ltd, Baku-based privately owned consulting company. Shain
is also a correspondent of Eurasianet (www.eurasianet.org). He has a
master's degree from Azerbaijan's State Oil Academy. In 2003-2004
Shain Abbasov was Reagan-Fascell Fellow at the National Endowment for
Democracy in Washington, DC. In 2008 he was Drapper-Hills Fellow of
the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford
University. Prior to that he spent more than 10 years as a print
journalist in Azerbaijan. He was deputy editor-in-chief at Echo and
Zerkalo daily newspapers in Baku.
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/abbasov2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/abbasov_rus.pdf
`In the next five years the regime in Azerbaijan is likely to have
sufficient administrative, financial and information of conflict
resolution, without any trouble for itself.'
-----
Karen Bekaryan has a doctorate in mathematics from Yerevan State
University. He worked as a lecturer in political science, European
integration and analysis for seven years and has been an expert for
the Foreign Relations Committee of the Armenian parliament since
1999. Karen has been the chairman of the NGO European Integration
since 2002 and director of Armedia Information Analytical Agency since
2006 and a member of the Public Council of Republic of Armenia since
2009. He has authored about 100 articles on European issues, political
issues, foreign relations and other topics.
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/bekaryan2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/ments/2014/be karyan_rus.pdf
`Irrespective of NK's political status, a comprehensive engagement
with civil society and administration of the NKR should be undertaken
as from today. The earliest possible return of the NKR to the
negotiating format could make the resolution process more realistic
and productive.'
-----
Tabib Huseynov is an analyst with the International Crisis Group, a
global conflict prevention and resolution think-tank, where he
conducts research and drafts reports on political and conflict issues
in Azerbaijan and wider Caucasus region. From Shusha in Nagorny
Karabakh, he regularly takes part in dialogue and academic meetings
about the Karabakh conflict and the Caucasus region and has written
various independent publications, including a monograph 'Resolving
Ethno-territorial Conflicts: a case for mountainous Karabakh` (Berlin,
2008). He holds an MA in International Relations and European Studies
from the Central European University in Budapest, Hungary. The views
expressed in Tabib's Karabakh 2014 paper are his own.
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/huseynov2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-rnts/2014/huseynov_rus.pdf
`A consensus-based plebiscite scenario is apparently the best possible
option for a peaceful and speedy solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. However, it will be hard to convince the parties of this
option as long as they think in zero-sum categories.'
-----
Manvel Sarkisyan comes from Hadrut in Nagorny Karabakh. He trained as
an architect in the Baku Engineering-Construction Institute and
practiced architecture in Stepanakert. After serving in the Soviet
army, he spent six years as a specialist on architectural history in
Armenia's Department for the Protection of Cultural Monuments. In 1988
he was one of the first members of the Armenian Karabakh movement. In
1992 he was appointed permanent representative of Nagorny Karabakh in
Armenia and in 1993 was made an adviser to the foreign minister of
Nagorny Karabakh. In 1995 he worked as an expert on international
relations in the Armenian Centre for Strategic and National
Studies. In 2000-05 he was aide on political issues to the president
of the Nagorny Karabakh Republic. Since then he has worked as an
expert for the Caucasus Centre and the Armenian Centre for Strategic
and National Studies. In 1992-5 he took part in many rounds of
negotiations on the Karabakh conflict. [The terminology used here is
the author's choice, not Conciliation Resources.]
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/sarkisyan2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/sarkisyan_rus.pdf
`The fact is that some territories previously categorized as
`unrecognized entities' have moved on to the category of
`semi-recognized states'. This has led to changes in the state of
international security and stability. And the `culprits' are the major
powers themselves.'
-----
Rashad Shirinov studied International Relations at Baku State
University and then did an MA in Political Science and International
Relations at Bosphorus University in Istanbul. In 2007 he was FCO
Senior Chevening Fellow at the University of York, UK. In 2007-2008 he
visited Monterey Institute of International Studies to earn a
certificate in WMD non-proliferation. He has worked for the OSCE and
IFES in Baku and is currently employed as political party program
officer with the US National Democratic Institute for International
Affairs in Azerbaijan.
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/shirinov2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/shirinov_rus.pdf
`The autonomy of Karabakh would require more respect, discussion and
compromise on behalf of the Azerbaijani government. This would be a
test for the Azerbaijani ruling elite as it has little culture of
political power-sharing.'
-----
Mikael Zolyan is a political scientist and historian from Yerevan. He
studied in Yerevan State University and the Central European
University in Budapest. In 2005 he received a doctorate in history
from the Ethnology Faculty at Yerevan State University. In 2008 he
studied at UCLA. His main interests include the study of nationality,
ethnicity and ethno-political conflicts and in particular issues about
the relationship of historica and national identity.
Download his paper [English pdf] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus/documents/201 4/zolyan2.pdf
Download his paper [Ðyccкий] -- http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasusument/document s/2014/zolyan_rus.pdf
`Any solution, which is worked out by the major powers and imposed on
parties to the conflict, is not only unsustainable but represents a
potential time-bomb. The `geopolitical paradigm' ignores the
importance of developments within the local societies.'
http://www.c-r.org/our-work/caucasus /karabakh-2014.php