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BAKU: Ankara-Yerevan Ties Depend On Karabakh: Experts

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  • BAKU: Ankara-Yerevan Ties Depend On Karabakh: Experts

    ANKARA-YEREVAN TIES DEPEND ON KARABAKH: EXPERTS

    Trend
    Nov 11 2009
    Azerbaijan

    The Turkish parliament will not ratify the Armenia-Turkey protocols
    until significant progress is made to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict, experts said.

    "The Turkish parliament has not discussed the Ankara-Yerevan
    protocols yet," Turkish National Intelligence Committee former
    analyst Mahir Kaynak said. "It is a message to Armenia that opening
    the Turkish-Armenian border is directly linked to resolving the
    Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Relations with Azerbaijan are more important
    for Turkey than relations with Armenia. Official Ankara cannot allow
    their deterioration."

    Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers Ahmet Davutoglu and Edward
    Nalbandian signed the Ankara-Yerevan protocols in Zurich Oct. 10.

    Diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey have been torn
    since 1993.

    Several Turkish MPs said the protocols will not be ratified until
    Armenia shows progress in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In
    an interview with Reuters the Armenian foreign minister rejected
    Turkey's demand to make concessions in the conflict in exchange for
    a historic rapprochement between Yerevan and Ankara.

    "At present, Turkey does not plan to open the border with neighboring
    Armenia," Turkish former Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said.

    The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
    when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan
    lost all of Nagorno-Karabakh except for Shusha and Khojali in
    December 1991. In 1992-93, Armenian armed forces occupied Shusha,
    Khojali and seven districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan
    and Armenia signed a ceasefire in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE
    Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. -- are currently holding
    peace negotiations.

    In an interview with local media Oct. 10 Turkish Prime Minister
    Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara will never take actions contrary to
    Azerbaijani interests.

    The day after the protocols were signed, in an interview with the TRT1
    Turkish state television channel, Davutoglu demanded that Armenia
    free Azerbaijani territories as a major condition for establishing
    relations with Yerevan.

    Analysts believe that the parliament's decision to postpone
    ratification is connected with Ankara's hope that Yerevan will make
    progress in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    Turkey and Armenia have taken a wait-and-see attitude. Everyone is
    waiting for the other one to take the first step. It is not surprising
    that Ankara still has not ratified these protocols, European Expert
    on the South Caucasus Amanda Akcakoca said.

    "Turkey wants Armenia to progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
    which has not happened yet," Akcakoca told Trend News in an e-mail.

    She added that the Turkish leadership has repeatedly promised Baku
    not to establish relations with Armenia before progress has been made
    in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    The protocols between Turkey and Armenia were signed under pressure
    from the EU and U.S. But this was a mistake, Turkish MP Reshad
    Dogru said.

    "The AKP is afraid that if it submits the protocols for consideration
    to parliament, the party will face its end," Dogru told Trend News
    over the phone from Ankara.

    He said the ruling party realizes that if the Turkish people still
    do not support the protocols, then they will be unlikely to support
    them in the future.

    After submitting the protocols for review, Armenia would try to
    pressure Turkey with the help of the international community and urge
    the execution of signed agreements, Dogru said.

    "However, Turkey as a country will not open the border without first
    seeing progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem," he said.

    Armenian Center for National and Strategic Studies expert Manvel
    Sargsyan said ratification without progress on Nagorno Karabakh would
    be a radical denial of traditional Turkish policy, the Herald of the
    Caucasus Web site reported.

    He added that some countries do not want Turkey to preserve its
    political traditions.

    "Turkey faces a complicated choice - whether the country will be
    able to defend its positions or be forced to radically change them,"
    Sargsyan said.

    The expert added that Turkey plays a major role in how the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will unfold.

    If Armenia really strives to open its borders with Turkey, then it
    must first resolve its problems with Azerbaijan, Kaynak said.

    "If Armenia wants the borders to be opened, first it must solve
    its problems with Azerbaijan," he told Trend News over the phone
    from Ankara.

    Several observers said Turkey has another chance to delay ratification
    in the legislative body.

    The parliament will not ratify the Armenia-Turkey protocols until
    February-March 2010, Armenian Center for National and International
    Studies Director Richard Giragosian said.

    He added that this temporary gap is stipulated by the ninety-fifth
    anniversary of the so-called "Armenian Genocide," the Armenia Today
    Web site reported.

    Giragosian said Ankara is at risk as Yerevan's patience is limited.

    "The expectations from Turkey are quite high. But the signals
    constantly coming from Brussels and Washington that Turkey must
    fulfill its obligations in time are also important," he said.

    Meanwhile, Akcakoca said the South Caucasus has a historic window
    of opportunity and all interested parties must push for something
    to happen on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, including the EU, which
    tends to sit on the fence.

    "The West must take a more principled position as it does with
    other conflicts because sitting on the fence is of no benefit to the
    resolution of this conflict," Akcakoca said.

    "The longer the delay the more the momentum will erode. Both sides
    need to be brave and do it. It is time to move to a future beyond
    the past," Akcakoca said.
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