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WHAT RISK DOES THE OPENING OF LARSI ENTAIL
Kviris Palitra
Nov 9 2009
Georgia
Eka Asatiani's interview with Caucasus affairs expert Mamuka Areshidze
Translated from Georgian
Many details of the patriarch's visit to Baku have not been disclosed.
According to Caucasus affairs expert Mamuka Areshidze, discussion of
the idea of a peaceful Caucasus should have been discussed.
[Areshidze] Certain government officials made a serious mistake when
they participated in the adventurism that a member of the Liberty
Institute began. I think that [senior Liberty Institute figure Tea]
Tutberidze's statement [probable reference to Tutberidze's reposting
of anticlerical web videos on her Facebook page] was inspired by the
activity of the Patriarchate in the Caucasus region.
Georgian Orthodox Patriarch meets Russian counterpart in Azerbaijan
The Patriarch raised the peaceful Caucasus initiative in talks with
[former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and
Eurasian Affairs] Matthew Bryza, after which the idea took on new
life. He highlighted the fact that the Georgian government does not
possess the capacity to maintain peace in the country and in the
Caucasus in general. The Patriarch has taken this role upon himself.
It has now become clear to everyone that the patriarch's latest visit
to Baku was not just to celebrate the birthday [of Azerbaijan's senior
Muslim cleric, Allahsukur Pasazada].
The Russian Patriarch was also present. It is fully possible that
the Caucasus peace plan was also discussed in Baku and that the
patriarch is lobbying this idea at a more serious level. There is
a group within the [Georgian] government that is irritated by such
initiatives. What also stood out for me was that a new approach to
the church was expressed in the human rights ombudsman's [latest]
report. It is stated in it that the Georgian [Orthodox] Church should
not have a privileged position.
The patriarch and Pasazada made a statement that Georgia and Azerbaijan
were in the same situation in that both countries had lost territory
and that they have been abandoned with no supporters bar each
other. This was a serious observation on the ongoing processes in
the South Caucasus and on the position that Turkey has adopted on
Azerbaijan. The meeting of the Georgian and Russian patriarchs on
"neutral territory" was very important. We will hear more about this
in the coming days but I am certain that [Russian] Patriarch Kirill's
visit to Azerbaijan was an extension of Russian policy.
Parts of Georgia-Russia border "occupied" by Russia
The situation is rather difficult. All the areas the Georgian border
guards used to control have now been "occupied" by Russian border
guards only. For this to be clear to the reader, I will give you
the example of the Mamisoni pass [connecting the north-west Georgian
region of Racha to Russia] where Georgian border guards were forced
to retreat. In addition, Russian border guards have seized a 24km
section in Tusheti [region in north-west Georgia bordering Chechnya
and Dagestan]. This is quite far from the occupied territories
[Abkhazia and South Ossetia], where the Russian army already stands.
Tension rising in periphery of rebel regions
A "political approach" is at work in the occupied territories so that
a buffer zone can be created around them. This is particularly true
of the territory of South Ossetia. This means that work is under way
to ensure that the local population leaves the adjacent territory.
Recently they have begun to detain people claiming that they "violated
the border".
The same thing is happening, albeit to a lesser extent, to the
population of Racha. The [Russian/South Ossetian-occupied] village of
Perevi, in Sachkhere District, has been almost fully vacated by its
residents. And what is happening in the villages of [Abkhazia's] Gali
District [alleged mistreatment of ethnic Georgians] will soon begin in
Samegrelo [Georgian-controlled region adjacent to Abkhazia]... In those
villages of Gali which are separated from Tqvarcheli and Ochamchire,
young people do not know Georgian at all. They only speak Megrelian
[language spoken by the Georgian ethnic subgroup native to Samegrelo
and parts of Abkhazia] or Russian - that is, the Megrelians are
undergoing a process of Abkhazification. The situation in [Georgia's
ethnic Armenian-populated] Javakheti, where our adversary, unlike
ourselves, is active and focussed on achieving serious results,
is also difficult. If the Armenian-Turkish border opens, it will be
difficult to predict what will happen in Javakheti...
The situation in the Pankisi Gorge [in northern Georgia, near
Chechnya], where local government elites have handed over economic
levers to the Wahhabis, is also worth considering. These are the
threats Georgia is faced with which are forming the preconditions
for this country's disintegration. As for the opening of the Larsi
crossing, it has both positives and negatives. It will prove to be
positive only for the residents of Qazbegi [Georgian town nearest to
the Larsi border crossing] because the opening of the border will have
a positive effect on the economic situation there. The restoration of
communications will be good for the part of Georgia's population which
has relatives in North Caucasus. There is one more positive aspect
to this- if Georgia uses it correctly - Armenia will be connected to
Russia through this route, which means that it will be dependent on
Georgia to an extent...
Armenia main beneficiary of opening of Russia-Georgia border
The negative side is that Georgia will be opening a border with a
country that it is at war with and with which it has no diplomatic
relations. Apart from this, Georgia is to open its border for the sake
of a third country [Armenia]. Are we supposed to watch with an empty
stomach as this country trades [with Russia] and makes money? What is
particularly dangerous for us is that an organization called Daryal has
been established in North Ossetia whose members are Ossetians from the
Truso Gorge [in northern Georgia] who have every legal right to return
to Georgia, yet because of ideological pressure, they have gradually
developed an antagonistic disposition towards everything Georgian.
Main Russia-Georgia highway under threat from South Ossetia
You will know that there is a big campaign in the North Ossetian
press on who should control Qazbegi District (?!) [punctuation as
published]. They assert that it is Ossetian territory and if the border
is opened, I cannot rule out the possibility that this campaign will
take on a more serious, political colouring. Nor should we forget
that a section of the Georgian military highway [connecting Tbilisi
to Vladikavkaz in North Ossetia, Russia] practically borders the
Soviet-era boundary of the South Ossetian Autonomous Region. For
example, the territory adjacent to the village of Mleta is South
Ossetia, which is only 150 metres away from the Georgian military
highway. Let us imagine that if Kokoyty suddenly decides to occupy this
territory with his military units, Qazbegi District, the territory
around Gudauri, the Kobi section of the road and Truso - all these
will be separated from the rest of Georgia.
Incident on Armenian border reported
[Asatiani] What incident took place on the Armenian-Georgian border
a couple of days ago?
[Areshidze] There was a row between border guards near the Armenian
village of Bavra. The Armenian side attempted to move their border
post into Georgian territory and the Georgian side stopped them. Then
Georgian army units arrived there and had it not been for the timely
intervention of the border guards' leaderships, it is hard to tell
what would have happened. Earlier it was the Georgian side that
shifted their post into the Bavra fields and camped there....All this
happened because no demarcation has taken place on the aforementioned
territory. The settlement of these problems is hampered by the frequent
staff changes among those who are expected to deal with these issues.
Kviris Palitra
Nov 9 2009
Georgia
Eka Asatiani's interview with Caucasus affairs expert Mamuka Areshidze
Translated from Georgian
Many details of the patriarch's visit to Baku have not been disclosed.
According to Caucasus affairs expert Mamuka Areshidze, discussion of
the idea of a peaceful Caucasus should have been discussed.
[Areshidze] Certain government officials made a serious mistake when
they participated in the adventurism that a member of the Liberty
Institute began. I think that [senior Liberty Institute figure Tea]
Tutberidze's statement [probable reference to Tutberidze's reposting
of anticlerical web videos on her Facebook page] was inspired by the
activity of the Patriarchate in the Caucasus region.
Georgian Orthodox Patriarch meets Russian counterpart in Azerbaijan
The Patriarch raised the peaceful Caucasus initiative in talks with
[former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and
Eurasian Affairs] Matthew Bryza, after which the idea took on new
life. He highlighted the fact that the Georgian government does not
possess the capacity to maintain peace in the country and in the
Caucasus in general. The Patriarch has taken this role upon himself.
It has now become clear to everyone that the patriarch's latest visit
to Baku was not just to celebrate the birthday [of Azerbaijan's senior
Muslim cleric, Allahsukur Pasazada].
The Russian Patriarch was also present. It is fully possible that
the Caucasus peace plan was also discussed in Baku and that the
patriarch is lobbying this idea at a more serious level. There is
a group within the [Georgian] government that is irritated by such
initiatives. What also stood out for me was that a new approach to
the church was expressed in the human rights ombudsman's [latest]
report. It is stated in it that the Georgian [Orthodox] Church should
not have a privileged position.
The patriarch and Pasazada made a statement that Georgia and Azerbaijan
were in the same situation in that both countries had lost territory
and that they have been abandoned with no supporters bar each
other. This was a serious observation on the ongoing processes in
the South Caucasus and on the position that Turkey has adopted on
Azerbaijan. The meeting of the Georgian and Russian patriarchs on
"neutral territory" was very important. We will hear more about this
in the coming days but I am certain that [Russian] Patriarch Kirill's
visit to Azerbaijan was an extension of Russian policy.
Parts of Georgia-Russia border "occupied" by Russia
The situation is rather difficult. All the areas the Georgian border
guards used to control have now been "occupied" by Russian border
guards only. For this to be clear to the reader, I will give you
the example of the Mamisoni pass [connecting the north-west Georgian
region of Racha to Russia] where Georgian border guards were forced
to retreat. In addition, Russian border guards have seized a 24km
section in Tusheti [region in north-west Georgia bordering Chechnya
and Dagestan]. This is quite far from the occupied territories
[Abkhazia and South Ossetia], where the Russian army already stands.
Tension rising in periphery of rebel regions
A "political approach" is at work in the occupied territories so that
a buffer zone can be created around them. This is particularly true
of the territory of South Ossetia. This means that work is under way
to ensure that the local population leaves the adjacent territory.
Recently they have begun to detain people claiming that they "violated
the border".
The same thing is happening, albeit to a lesser extent, to the
population of Racha. The [Russian/South Ossetian-occupied] village of
Perevi, in Sachkhere District, has been almost fully vacated by its
residents. And what is happening in the villages of [Abkhazia's] Gali
District [alleged mistreatment of ethnic Georgians] will soon begin in
Samegrelo [Georgian-controlled region adjacent to Abkhazia]... In those
villages of Gali which are separated from Tqvarcheli and Ochamchire,
young people do not know Georgian at all. They only speak Megrelian
[language spoken by the Georgian ethnic subgroup native to Samegrelo
and parts of Abkhazia] or Russian - that is, the Megrelians are
undergoing a process of Abkhazification. The situation in [Georgia's
ethnic Armenian-populated] Javakheti, where our adversary, unlike
ourselves, is active and focussed on achieving serious results,
is also difficult. If the Armenian-Turkish border opens, it will be
difficult to predict what will happen in Javakheti...
The situation in the Pankisi Gorge [in northern Georgia, near
Chechnya], where local government elites have handed over economic
levers to the Wahhabis, is also worth considering. These are the
threats Georgia is faced with which are forming the preconditions
for this country's disintegration. As for the opening of the Larsi
crossing, it has both positives and negatives. It will prove to be
positive only for the residents of Qazbegi [Georgian town nearest to
the Larsi border crossing] because the opening of the border will have
a positive effect on the economic situation there. The restoration of
communications will be good for the part of Georgia's population which
has relatives in North Caucasus. There is one more positive aspect
to this- if Georgia uses it correctly - Armenia will be connected to
Russia through this route, which means that it will be dependent on
Georgia to an extent...
Armenia main beneficiary of opening of Russia-Georgia border
The negative side is that Georgia will be opening a border with a
country that it is at war with and with which it has no diplomatic
relations. Apart from this, Georgia is to open its border for the sake
of a third country [Armenia]. Are we supposed to watch with an empty
stomach as this country trades [with Russia] and makes money? What is
particularly dangerous for us is that an organization called Daryal has
been established in North Ossetia whose members are Ossetians from the
Truso Gorge [in northern Georgia] who have every legal right to return
to Georgia, yet because of ideological pressure, they have gradually
developed an antagonistic disposition towards everything Georgian.
Main Russia-Georgia highway under threat from South Ossetia
You will know that there is a big campaign in the North Ossetian
press on who should control Qazbegi District (?!) [punctuation as
published]. They assert that it is Ossetian territory and if the border
is opened, I cannot rule out the possibility that this campaign will
take on a more serious, political colouring. Nor should we forget
that a section of the Georgian military highway [connecting Tbilisi
to Vladikavkaz in North Ossetia, Russia] practically borders the
Soviet-era boundary of the South Ossetian Autonomous Region. For
example, the territory adjacent to the village of Mleta is South
Ossetia, which is only 150 metres away from the Georgian military
highway. Let us imagine that if Kokoyty suddenly decides to occupy this
territory with his military units, Qazbegi District, the territory
around Gudauri, the Kobi section of the road and Truso - all these
will be separated from the rest of Georgia.
Incident on Armenian border reported
[Asatiani] What incident took place on the Armenian-Georgian border
a couple of days ago?
[Areshidze] There was a row between border guards near the Armenian
village of Bavra. The Armenian side attempted to move their border
post into Georgian territory and the Georgian side stopped them. Then
Georgian army units arrived there and had it not been for the timely
intervention of the border guards' leaderships, it is hard to tell
what would have happened. Earlier it was the Georgian side that
shifted their post into the Bavra fields and camped there....All this
happened because no demarcation has taken place on the aforementioned
territory. The settlement of these problems is hampered by the frequent
staff changes among those who are expected to deal with these issues.