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TURKISH PARLIAMENT WILL NOT RATIFY PROTOCOLS: CHIEF EDITOR OF MOSCOW-BASED NEWSPAPER
Today
Nov 20 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with chief editor of Mowcow-based 'Konservator'
newspaper of Azerbaijani origin Rustam Arifjanov.
Day.Az: The Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents are expected to
meet in the second half of November. What can one expect from the
presidents' meeting?
Rustam Arifjanov: It should be noted that presidents' meeting was
formerly preceded by foreign ministers' meeting while this time it
will be opposite of it.
The heads of state will meet roughly in the second half of November
and ministers will meet later.
I must say that this is not the usual format which suggests that may
adopt some decision at political level and foreign ministers will be
develop ways to implement them. However, there is no feeling that a
breakthrough will happen in settlement of the conflict any more. The
positions of both countries are still really opposed.
However, the situation has changed to a certain extent. Turkey and
Armenia signed protocols some time ago which urges Armenia to take
some decision on Karabakh and puts Azerbaijan in a new situation.
The ratification of protocols in the parliament of puts country's
leadership in a very difficult position. There are too many people
both in pro-government and opposition forces who are wary of
ratification. The coming debates in parliament and in society play
into the hands of Azerbaijan, because many things will be called by
their names. And I'm not sure that Turkish parliament will ratify
the protocols any time soon.
Q: There are many forces also in Armenia who do not want protocols
to be ratified. President Sargsyan recently took steps that seem
unreasonable. What is the reason? Harmed relations with the diaspora
or a desire to somehow recover, or something else?
A: The fact is that the diaspora is not experiencing economic hardship
from the current situation in Armenia. For them the question of
"genocide" is a matter of historical, ideological, political nature
while it is of economic nature for Armenia which is in a blockade.
Therefore, a number of parties in the country including Dashnaksutun
who live through diaspora's money, do not want to establish relations
with Turkey.
But the Armenian parliament is composed of not only those parties,
but also a number of others who believe that opening the borders
will improve life in Armenia. They alsounderstand that no profound
changes will happen. I do not think that the Armenian business will
move towards Turkey because Armenian businessmen are well aware that
there will not be accepted with open arms. As the Turkish business,
they will face all sorts of obstacles in Armenia.
Q: Why then to jeopardize the real financial inflow from diaspora
for the sake of dubious economic benefits from establishing relations
with Turkey?
A: First, Sargsyan's precarious position forces him to take such
steps. Both people in the country and the diaspora believe that the
last presidential election was illegitimate. Despite the outward
political calm, they can recall it to Sargsyan any time. Naturally,
in such a situation he needs to rely on someone. First, he relies on
Russia. We all are aware of Russian military bases in Armenia and
that country's major energy companies have already been bought by
Russian companies. In part, it all calms Sargsyan.
However, Azerbaijan has surely heard about the latest message from
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to the federal government. Speaking
about foreign policy, he noted a clear pragmatic approach not to
take any action contrary to the country's interests which often
occurred earlier. That is, if Russia's support to Armenia harms
Azerbaijan-Russia relations, the Kremlin will support Armenia no
longer.
Armenia realizes it. Therefore, Sargsyan is hastily seeking other
support sources. Actually, they do no have many sources. This is
the U.S. and Europe. However, the latter constantly put pressure on
Turkey to establish relations with Armenia while they demand Armenia
to withdraw its claim of recognition of the so-called "genocide".
The upcoming discussions of protocols in the Turkish parliament will
be very tense. MPs will be continually link opening of borders with
the return of occupied Azerbaijani lands. As a result, parliament is
likely to not ratify the protocol, and the president of the country
will have to do nothing, but shrug his shoulders.
Q: Do you think Turkey has chances to become leader in the region?
A: Of course, it is beneficial for world powers that Turkey will be
not only a regional leader, but leader of entire Muslim world. Not Iran
or even Saudi Arabia, but Turkey. This country is more understandable
for them and besides it is also a secular state. The fact that the
country is being ruled by pro-Islamic forces do not worry them. So,
they will provide all possible support to Turkey.
With regard to regional leadership, it is worth paying attention to
establishment of relations with Syria, and even with that part of the
Iraqi state which is autonomous and headed by the Kurdish government.
After all, the Kurdish problem is very painful for Turkey. But once
Americans eventually leave Iraq, it will be possible to save the
country only by creating a separate Kurdish and Arab states.
Otherwise, the bloodshed would be inevitable.
Today
Nov 20 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with chief editor of Mowcow-based 'Konservator'
newspaper of Azerbaijani origin Rustam Arifjanov.
Day.Az: The Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents are expected to
meet in the second half of November. What can one expect from the
presidents' meeting?
Rustam Arifjanov: It should be noted that presidents' meeting was
formerly preceded by foreign ministers' meeting while this time it
will be opposite of it.
The heads of state will meet roughly in the second half of November
and ministers will meet later.
I must say that this is not the usual format which suggests that may
adopt some decision at political level and foreign ministers will be
develop ways to implement them. However, there is no feeling that a
breakthrough will happen in settlement of the conflict any more. The
positions of both countries are still really opposed.
However, the situation has changed to a certain extent. Turkey and
Armenia signed protocols some time ago which urges Armenia to take
some decision on Karabakh and puts Azerbaijan in a new situation.
The ratification of protocols in the parliament of puts country's
leadership in a very difficult position. There are too many people
both in pro-government and opposition forces who are wary of
ratification. The coming debates in parliament and in society play
into the hands of Azerbaijan, because many things will be called by
their names. And I'm not sure that Turkish parliament will ratify
the protocols any time soon.
Q: There are many forces also in Armenia who do not want protocols
to be ratified. President Sargsyan recently took steps that seem
unreasonable. What is the reason? Harmed relations with the diaspora
or a desire to somehow recover, or something else?
A: The fact is that the diaspora is not experiencing economic hardship
from the current situation in Armenia. For them the question of
"genocide" is a matter of historical, ideological, political nature
while it is of economic nature for Armenia which is in a blockade.
Therefore, a number of parties in the country including Dashnaksutun
who live through diaspora's money, do not want to establish relations
with Turkey.
But the Armenian parliament is composed of not only those parties,
but also a number of others who believe that opening the borders
will improve life in Armenia. They alsounderstand that no profound
changes will happen. I do not think that the Armenian business will
move towards Turkey because Armenian businessmen are well aware that
there will not be accepted with open arms. As the Turkish business,
they will face all sorts of obstacles in Armenia.
Q: Why then to jeopardize the real financial inflow from diaspora
for the sake of dubious economic benefits from establishing relations
with Turkey?
A: First, Sargsyan's precarious position forces him to take such
steps. Both people in the country and the diaspora believe that the
last presidential election was illegitimate. Despite the outward
political calm, they can recall it to Sargsyan any time. Naturally,
in such a situation he needs to rely on someone. First, he relies on
Russia. We all are aware of Russian military bases in Armenia and
that country's major energy companies have already been bought by
Russian companies. In part, it all calms Sargsyan.
However, Azerbaijan has surely heard about the latest message from
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to the federal government. Speaking
about foreign policy, he noted a clear pragmatic approach not to
take any action contrary to the country's interests which often
occurred earlier. That is, if Russia's support to Armenia harms
Azerbaijan-Russia relations, the Kremlin will support Armenia no
longer.
Armenia realizes it. Therefore, Sargsyan is hastily seeking other
support sources. Actually, they do no have many sources. This is
the U.S. and Europe. However, the latter constantly put pressure on
Turkey to establish relations with Armenia while they demand Armenia
to withdraw its claim of recognition of the so-called "genocide".
The upcoming discussions of protocols in the Turkish parliament will
be very tense. MPs will be continually link opening of borders with
the return of occupied Azerbaijani lands. As a result, parliament is
likely to not ratify the protocol, and the president of the country
will have to do nothing, but shrug his shoulders.
Q: Do you think Turkey has chances to become leader in the region?
A: Of course, it is beneficial for world powers that Turkey will be
not only a regional leader, but leader of entire Muslim world. Not Iran
or even Saudi Arabia, but Turkey. This country is more understandable
for them and besides it is also a secular state. The fact that the
country is being ruled by pro-Islamic forces do not worry them. So,
they will provide all possible support to Turkey.
With regard to regional leadership, it is worth paying attention to
establishment of relations with Syria, and even with that part of the
Iraqi state which is autonomous and headed by the Kurdish government.
After all, the Kurdish problem is very painful for Turkey. But once
Americans eventually leave Iraq, it will be possible to save the
country only by creating a separate Kurdish and Arab states.
Otherwise, the bloodshed would be inevitable.