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  • BAKU: Second Civil War In Karabakh

    SECOND CIVIL WAR IN KARABAKH
    By Elsad Mammadli and Teymur T

    Yeni Musavat
    Nov 23 2009
    Azerbaijan

    Military operations against Armenia are again on the agenda

    Behind the scene moments of official Baku's bellicose statement;
    it is rumoured that Russia has agreed to local operations; Shocking
    statements by Vafa Quluzada

    The Azerbaijani authorities have again started issuing bellicose
    statement. As for whether or not this is rhetoric or a well-thought-out
    step, our latest observations enable us to say that the authorities'
    intention to resort to a military solution is not at all ruled
    out. President Ilham Aliyev's relevant statement issued ahead of the
    Munich meeting [between Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents on 22
    November] and the possibility of resorting to a military solution if
    the talks with Armenia fails, has turned the global agenda upside down.

    Peaceful option complete fiasco

    Yesterday throughout the day, Turkish media outlets discussed the
    Azerbaijani president's statements and a possible resumption of the
    hostilities. The presidents' Munich meeting, according to reports
    available to yesterday night, has in no way contributed to the
    resolution of the conflict through talks.

    After rapprochement with Turkey, Armenia has been behaving improperly;
    like at the Moldova meeting, from the outset, it was not expected
    that the enemy would demonstrate a constructive position this time.

    Therefore, it is already possible to say that a peaceful option for
    the resolution of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict has turned out to be
    a fiasco, the use of force, a war option have settled on the agenda
    as alternative-free option.

    True, Azerbaijan has another option, that is to say, to compromise
    Nagornyy Karabakh and the occupied lands to Armenia and to reconcile
    itself to the emergence of the second Armenian state at the expense
    of the Azerbaijani lands.

    Certainly, not any authorities, including the Aliyev government
    would and can agree to this option. From this standpoint, it is
    quite possible for a war to spark off again in the region in the near
    future. There are already no multiple choices for Azerbaijan as well
    as its authorities. Bearing the developments around the situation in
    line with this option, the Armenian authorities have already launched
    defensive preparations in Nagornyy Karabakh.

    War preparations

    Our permanent readers may recall that media outlets covered the
    recent visit of the Armenian president and the defence minister
    to Nagornyy Karabakh's occupied lands and observation of defensive
    preparations of the self-styled Armenian regime there. Yeni Musavat
    newspaper also carried a banner headline report on this topic, gave
    an in-depth analysis of the issue in question and came up with the
    possibility of the start of the second civil war.

    The Azerbaijani side is also conducting preparations for a war to an
    extent that is tangible. Changes were made in the army, conflicts at
    the Defence Ministry were eliminated, patriotic topics and positive
    programmes on the armed forces are increased on TV channels. For
    example, the commander of a corps stationed in a war zone, Mahmud
    Hamzayev, and the chief of the Baku Supreme Military School, Maj-Gen
    Heydar Piriyev, were discharged from their posts.

    The chief military commissar, with whom the defence minister has
    been at loggerheads for many years, was dismissed. The contacts with
    the Turkish armed forces have been intensified. Several high-ranking
    officers of the Turkish armed forces have recently been to Baku.

    Contacts have also been intensified with Russia, of whose interference
    is feared in case war is resumed in Nagornyy Karabakh.

    Even under some reports, Russia's military and political elite has
    tacitly agreed to Azerbaijan's local military operations in Nagornyy
    Karabakh. True, billions of petrodollars are said to play a role in
    the issue, however, anyway, quite reliable people say that "in case
    the hostilities are resumed, Russia would only denounce this act
    verbally and there would not be a military interference as was the
    case with Georgia.

    Azerbaijan said be given green light

    Azerbaijan would be given enough time to advance towards several
    districts in order to oblige Armenians to agree to compromises. The
    USA also knows this; however, it hesitates the possibility of the
    hostilities to enlarge and therefore, is completely against it.

    Even there are rumours afloat that the US administration has sent
    its representative to Baku to deliver a sharp statement to make the
    Aliyev government to avoid a war option..."

    We should note here that the four well-known resolutions of the UN
    and the organization's charter recognize Azerbaijan's right to ensure
    its territorial integrity by any means. Apart from the right to war,
    Azerbaijan, no doubt, has enough military, economic and human potential
    to banish the occupier from its territory within a short time. And
    many experts share the same satisfaction that though the system of
    corruption and bribery has deep roots, with the current army Azerbaijan
    can give a worthy answer to Armenia and free its territories from the
    occupiers within a short time. This is also clear to the superpowers.

    Azeri leader threatens to resume hostilities to free lands

    On the eve of the Munich meeting, President Ilham Aliyev issued a
    clear-cut statement on a military option: "...The activities in the
    army building over the recent years have certainly their aims. We
    are doing this as we have never ruled out this option. We have the
    full right to liberate our lands militarily."

    Our newspaper is publishing an article about the Munich meeting of
    yesterday. Nevertheless, its outcome was obvious when this material was
    being prepared. Therefore, we spoke to political expert Vafa Quluzada,
    who knows this topic in-depth, to analyze a war option that has been
    featuring as a priority now and asked him several questions.

    Mr Quluzada played a significant role in the wide-ranging activities
    with regard to the conflict, participated in talks and meetings on
    behalf of the state. Therefore, it is very important to pay attention
    to what he has said.

    The political expert believes that since yesterday Russian mass media
    outlets have been carrying reports that Azerbaijan is rich, is paying
    funds to the armament and the military elite has been speaking of
    a war option for a long time and that the president of the country
    issues statements on the liberation of the lands militarily: "They
    also sound such an opinion that it is possible that Azerbaijan has
    got Russia's consent to this end. That is to say, Russia may not
    interfere in this matter. If only Moscow consents, Azerbaijan can
    resume hostilities. However, it is interesting that even if the Kremlin
    pledges this, to what extent will it honour its promise? There crops
    up another question. Can Armenia not punish Azerbaijan with secret
    support of Russia?

    Will Russia remain neutral?

    On the other hand, at the cost of what has Russia given its consent
    to remain neutral? What has Azerbaijan to give Russia in order
    they remain neutral? If there is such a reciprocal agreement there,
    Azerbaijan has to give a lot to Russia.

    First, it has to completely change its political orientation. These
    questions so far remain unanswered. Therefore, one should still wait
    to see where the processes are heading to."

    In all, a day after the Munich meeting, the planning of the Azerbaijani
    president's visit to Russia is worth attention. So the head of the
    Russian presidential administration, Sergey Naryshkin, is visiting
    Azerbaijan today with Ilham Aliyev going to Moscow tomorrow.

    Could it be possible to verify Russia's consent to a possible war
    option in the wake of the planned meeting of Ilham Aliyev to Moscow
    immediately after Munich?

    "If a war option is serious, then this issue has been agreed with
    Moscow long ago," Vafa Quluzada said, adding that "if the issue is
    real, the existing situation, steps to be taken were well-balanced.

    Therefore, I consider that this visit at this stage is simply
    calculated to demonstrate the friendship with the Russian president.

    However, I personally do not trust Russia."

    The processes concerning the conflict have reached both the most
    interesting and most dramatic aspect now. Armenia does not want to
    make compromises and Azerbaijan does not want to give its lands; the
    West does not want to defend those who are right but the Christian
    [Armenia].

    In its turn, Turkey has been neutralized following various games;
    it has already signed agreements with Armenia. Given this, there is
    indeed no other way except for a war.
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