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TALK OF TURKISH ARMY PRESENCE IN AZERBAIJAN 'MAY SERVE MANY PURPOSES'
news.az
Aug 24 2010
Azerbaijan
Hans Gutbrod News.Az interviews Dr Hans Gutbrod, regional director
of the Caucasus Research and Resource Centre.
How would you comment on the Russian-Armenian agreement on military
cooperation and the Russian base at Gyumri?
There may be some novel aspects to this Russian-Armenian agreement, but
the reality is that cooperation has been running deep for many years,
and that Russia, and Russian elites, have great stakes and direct
involvement in Armenia, and in the Armenian economy. What we're seeing
here is primarily the formal reaffirmation of existing relationships.
Isn't this cooperation a threat to Azerbaijan?
This is not a direct threat to Azerbaijan, since Armenia and Russia
prefer the status quo. However, the reaffirmation shows that it's
difficult for Azerbaijan to change that status quo without aligning
Moscow in one way or the other.
Will this support from Russia allow Armenia to be tougher in the
negotiations with Azerbaijan?
It's not exactly as if the negotiation process had been very dynamic
over the last few years. The question is whether things are going
to move forward swiftly. Right now, that doesn't seem to be a likely
scenario.
Do you expect intervention from Russian or the Collective Security
Treat Organization in the Karabakh conflict, if war broke out again
in the region?
If there were to be such a conflict, many unpredictable things may
happen. It's always good to remember that of the many major wars in
the last 150 years, only one helped the initiator get all they wanted.
That was Bismarck, a very long time ago. Realistically, however,
it is in the interest of Armenia and Russia to make everyone believe
that Russia may very well intervene, so that any attempt to change
the status quo will be seen as very risky.
There are many reports about a possible Turkish military presence in
Azerbaijan in the near future. Could this really happen?
A direct Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan would be a very major
step. This step would make some of Turkey's NATO allies uncomfortable,
since it could potentially draw Turkey into larger-scale complications
that may be difficult to disentangle. In the short term, however, it
may serve many purposes to play around with this idea, publicly. Not
least, it could be a signal to those negotiating, that Turkey is
interested in promoting an equitable resolution.
From: A. Papazian
news.az
Aug 24 2010
Azerbaijan
Hans Gutbrod News.Az interviews Dr Hans Gutbrod, regional director
of the Caucasus Research and Resource Centre.
How would you comment on the Russian-Armenian agreement on military
cooperation and the Russian base at Gyumri?
There may be some novel aspects to this Russian-Armenian agreement, but
the reality is that cooperation has been running deep for many years,
and that Russia, and Russian elites, have great stakes and direct
involvement in Armenia, and in the Armenian economy. What we're seeing
here is primarily the formal reaffirmation of existing relationships.
Isn't this cooperation a threat to Azerbaijan?
This is not a direct threat to Azerbaijan, since Armenia and Russia
prefer the status quo. However, the reaffirmation shows that it's
difficult for Azerbaijan to change that status quo without aligning
Moscow in one way or the other.
Will this support from Russia allow Armenia to be tougher in the
negotiations with Azerbaijan?
It's not exactly as if the negotiation process had been very dynamic
over the last few years. The question is whether things are going
to move forward swiftly. Right now, that doesn't seem to be a likely
scenario.
Do you expect intervention from Russian or the Collective Security
Treat Organization in the Karabakh conflict, if war broke out again
in the region?
If there were to be such a conflict, many unpredictable things may
happen. It's always good to remember that of the many major wars in
the last 150 years, only one helped the initiator get all they wanted.
That was Bismarck, a very long time ago. Realistically, however,
it is in the interest of Armenia and Russia to make everyone believe
that Russia may very well intervene, so that any attempt to change
the status quo will be seen as very risky.
There are many reports about a possible Turkish military presence in
Azerbaijan in the near future. Could this really happen?
A direct Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan would be a very major
step. This step would make some of Turkey's NATO allies uncomfortable,
since it could potentially draw Turkey into larger-scale complications
that may be difficult to disentangle. In the short term, however, it
may serve many purposes to play around with this idea, publicly. Not
least, it could be a signal to those negotiating, that Turkey is
interested in promoting an equitable resolution.
From: A. Papazian