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KOSOVO HOLDS ITS BREATH AS INTERNATIONAL COURT PREPARES TO RULE ON INDEPENDENCE
Peter Beaumont
guardian.co.uk
Wednesday 21 July 2010 18.40 BST
Serbia not ready to give up its claim to former province ahead of
ruling from ICJ on territory's unilateral declaration in 2008
The long-awaited ruling on the legality of Kosovo's 2008 declaration
of independence will be disclosed by the international court of justice
(ICJ) tomorrow.
The judgment from the court in The Hague ~V to be issued at 2pm ~V
is not legally binding, but is likely to have profound consequences
both for Kosovo and other de facto states and territories that might
secede in the future.
Formerly the southern-most province of Serbia, Kosovo's ethnic
Albanian majority rebelled against rule from Belgrade in 1998 after
years of political repression, triggering an intervention by Nato in
the conflict that followed.
Following the failure of a negotiated settlement between Belgrade
and Pristina after the conflict, Kosovo unilaterally declared itself
independent in February 2008.
It was this declaration that was referred to the ICJ after Serbia
complained to the United Nations general assembly.
The judges on the panel ~V split almost evenly between those from
countries that have recognised Kosovo and those who have not ~V have
a history of careful and conservative judgments.
Speaking today, the Serbian foreign minister, Vuk Jeremic, warned that
even in the event of a ruling against it, Belgrade was not ready to
give up its claim to Kosovo.
"Serbia will not change its position regarding Kosovo's unilateral
declaration of independence and necessity of a compromise. Our fight
for such a solution will probably be long and difficult, but we will
not give up."
Jeremic, who will be in The Hague for the ruling, had earlier said
that he expected a decision to vindicate Serbia, which would lead to
new negotiations on both sides.
But Kosovo's deputy prime minister, Rame Manaj, insisted: "The
declaration of independence is legal and legitimate because it
expresses the will of Kosovo's people."
The court has three options: rule the declaration illegal, rule it
legal, or offer an undecided or a balanced view.
Key considerations that the court examined, arising out of dozens of
submissions by UN member states as well as by Kosovo's own leadership,
have focused on issues of sovereignty, the slim volume of precedent
in international law, and how formerly large states like the Soviet
Union broke up along administrative borders.
While 69 countries have recognised Kosovo's declaration, it remains
far short of the two-thirds of the general assembly required for
membership of the UN.
A ruling in Kosovo's favour could bring that closer, with some
countries expected to recognise Kosovo should a ruling go its way.
None of the scenarios, however, is expected to have an immediate
impact on the situation on the ground, where a small area with a
Serb majority has split away itself around the north of the town of
Mitrovica, which has around 100,000 residents.
The resulting deadlock has sometimes erupted into violence, with
Serbs and Kosovars, despite intense international efforts, running
their own areas.
One way out of the impasse, according to one European diplomat
who has been closely monitoring the issue, would be if both sides
could be persuaded to engage in "technical talks" after the ruling
~V as opposed to "negotiations" ~V to discuss a "special status"
for Mitrovica North and its surrounding Serb enclave. This idea was
floated by western diplomats earlier this month.
Under this proposal Belgrade would be the guarantor of the Serb
enclave's autonomy, rather than Belgrade and Pristina together,
giving it a status similar to the South Tirol in Italy.
For Serbia, the ruling could complicate the balance of its awkward
politics. A ruling in its favour could lead to an entrenchment of
its claims on Kosovo, creating problems for its ambitions for EU
membership. A judgment against it is unlikely to change its support
for Serbs around Mitrovica.
A judgment that the declaration of independence was legal will also
have an important impact on the wider international stage, bolstering
demands for recognition by territories as diverse as Northern Cyprus,
Somaliland, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria.
Among those expecting a ruling largely in Serbia's favour is Dr Stefan
Wolff, professor of international security at Birmingham University.
"My personal view is that the court will say it is not in accordance
with international law. It is likely to take a very narrow view of
the arguments."
Wolff believes a judgment in favour of Kosovo would have other
unintended consequences , making it more difficult for the UN to
manage conflicts, especially in the transitional management of
disputed territories.
James Ker-Lindsay, a Balkans expert at the London School of Economics,
is more emphatic: "The legality of Kosovo's unilateral declaration
of independence is the most important case ever to come before the
International Court of Justice.
"The opinion of the court could radically change the way we treat
separatist groups in future. If it finds in favour of Kosovo, the
floodgates could be opened for a whole raft of new states to emerge.
No one wants to see this happen."
Backstory
Kosovo ~V or Kosova to ethnic Albanians ~V comes from the word
"blackbird" relating to Kosova Polje, "the field of blackbirds", the
battlefield where Prince Lazar was defeated by the Ottoman army in
1389. Rising nationalist tensions in the 20th century came to a head
in the 1980s. Slobodan Milosevic reduced Kosovo's special status in
Serbia, triggering the rise of a vocal separatist movement. By 1998
violence between Serb paramilitary police and the Kosovo Liberation
Army was widespread. Nato's intervention in 1999 saw Belgrade bombed
back to the negotiating table, ending its effective control over all
but a fraction of Kosovo. Kosovo declared itself independent in 2008.
Despite that it has struggled to persuade enough countries to recognise
it to join the United Nations.
From: A. Papazian
Peter Beaumont
guardian.co.uk
Wednesday 21 July 2010 18.40 BST
Serbia not ready to give up its claim to former province ahead of
ruling from ICJ on territory's unilateral declaration in 2008
The long-awaited ruling on the legality of Kosovo's 2008 declaration
of independence will be disclosed by the international court of justice
(ICJ) tomorrow.
The judgment from the court in The Hague ~V to be issued at 2pm ~V
is not legally binding, but is likely to have profound consequences
both for Kosovo and other de facto states and territories that might
secede in the future.
Formerly the southern-most province of Serbia, Kosovo's ethnic
Albanian majority rebelled against rule from Belgrade in 1998 after
years of political repression, triggering an intervention by Nato in
the conflict that followed.
Following the failure of a negotiated settlement between Belgrade
and Pristina after the conflict, Kosovo unilaterally declared itself
independent in February 2008.
It was this declaration that was referred to the ICJ after Serbia
complained to the United Nations general assembly.
The judges on the panel ~V split almost evenly between those from
countries that have recognised Kosovo and those who have not ~V have
a history of careful and conservative judgments.
Speaking today, the Serbian foreign minister, Vuk Jeremic, warned that
even in the event of a ruling against it, Belgrade was not ready to
give up its claim to Kosovo.
"Serbia will not change its position regarding Kosovo's unilateral
declaration of independence and necessity of a compromise. Our fight
for such a solution will probably be long and difficult, but we will
not give up."
Jeremic, who will be in The Hague for the ruling, had earlier said
that he expected a decision to vindicate Serbia, which would lead to
new negotiations on both sides.
But Kosovo's deputy prime minister, Rame Manaj, insisted: "The
declaration of independence is legal and legitimate because it
expresses the will of Kosovo's people."
The court has three options: rule the declaration illegal, rule it
legal, or offer an undecided or a balanced view.
Key considerations that the court examined, arising out of dozens of
submissions by UN member states as well as by Kosovo's own leadership,
have focused on issues of sovereignty, the slim volume of precedent
in international law, and how formerly large states like the Soviet
Union broke up along administrative borders.
While 69 countries have recognised Kosovo's declaration, it remains
far short of the two-thirds of the general assembly required for
membership of the UN.
A ruling in Kosovo's favour could bring that closer, with some
countries expected to recognise Kosovo should a ruling go its way.
None of the scenarios, however, is expected to have an immediate
impact on the situation on the ground, where a small area with a
Serb majority has split away itself around the north of the town of
Mitrovica, which has around 100,000 residents.
The resulting deadlock has sometimes erupted into violence, with
Serbs and Kosovars, despite intense international efforts, running
their own areas.
One way out of the impasse, according to one European diplomat
who has been closely monitoring the issue, would be if both sides
could be persuaded to engage in "technical talks" after the ruling
~V as opposed to "negotiations" ~V to discuss a "special status"
for Mitrovica North and its surrounding Serb enclave. This idea was
floated by western diplomats earlier this month.
Under this proposal Belgrade would be the guarantor of the Serb
enclave's autonomy, rather than Belgrade and Pristina together,
giving it a status similar to the South Tirol in Italy.
For Serbia, the ruling could complicate the balance of its awkward
politics. A ruling in its favour could lead to an entrenchment of
its claims on Kosovo, creating problems for its ambitions for EU
membership. A judgment against it is unlikely to change its support
for Serbs around Mitrovica.
A judgment that the declaration of independence was legal will also
have an important impact on the wider international stage, bolstering
demands for recognition by territories as diverse as Northern Cyprus,
Somaliland, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria.
Among those expecting a ruling largely in Serbia's favour is Dr Stefan
Wolff, professor of international security at Birmingham University.
"My personal view is that the court will say it is not in accordance
with international law. It is likely to take a very narrow view of
the arguments."
Wolff believes a judgment in favour of Kosovo would have other
unintended consequences , making it more difficult for the UN to
manage conflicts, especially in the transitional management of
disputed territories.
James Ker-Lindsay, a Balkans expert at the London School of Economics,
is more emphatic: "The legality of Kosovo's unilateral declaration
of independence is the most important case ever to come before the
International Court of Justice.
"The opinion of the court could radically change the way we treat
separatist groups in future. If it finds in favour of Kosovo, the
floodgates could be opened for a whole raft of new states to emerge.
No one wants to see this happen."
Backstory
Kosovo ~V or Kosova to ethnic Albanians ~V comes from the word
"blackbird" relating to Kosova Polje, "the field of blackbirds", the
battlefield where Prince Lazar was defeated by the Ottoman army in
1389. Rising nationalist tensions in the 20th century came to a head
in the 1980s. Slobodan Milosevic reduced Kosovo's special status in
Serbia, triggering the rise of a vocal separatist movement. By 1998
violence between Serb paramilitary police and the Kosovo Liberation
Army was widespread. Nato's intervention in 1999 saw Belgrade bombed
back to the negotiating table, ending its effective control over all
but a fraction of Kosovo. Kosovo declared itself independent in 2008.
Despite that it has struggled to persuade enough countries to recognise
it to join the United Nations.
From: A. Papazian