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KARABAKH: ICG EXPERT WARNS OF POSSIBLE NEW WAR TRIGGERED BY INCIDENT
Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow
21.04.11
The Istanbul-based Director of the Europe Program of the International
Crisis Group (ICG) Sabine Freizer warns that the Karabakh peace
process is endangered and "it is possible a war will break out and
this war will be difficult to stop."
"We are more than ever concerned over this. We, the international
community, speak about it from time to time. The Russia-Georgia war
took many by surprise, but we had repeatedly warned that such a threat
was possible, the same is in the case with Karabakh, the danger is
increasing day by day," Freizer said in an interview with ArmeniaNow
and four other Armenian media whose reporters are in Turkey these days.
Freizer, who has been dealing with South Caucasus matters since 2004,
thinks that "the threat of war is clearly growing".
"This is because there is no progress in negotiations and every day in
Azerbaijan they start thinking more and more that if it is impossible
to resolve the issue peacefully, then it can be solved militarily,"
says the expert, adding that Azerbaijan's growing military budget is
already a serious threat to regional peace.
"We think that it is quite possible that the Azerbaijani government
will end up in a war by accident...they will kind of push Armenians
into making small incidents, but it will create a strong reaction by
the Armenians," she says.
According to Freizer, to prevent such a possible clash, the
international community needs to react more quickly and sternly to
ceasefire violations in the conflict zone.
"Moreover, I believe that the monitoring should be carried out not once
a month or at a longer interval, but every day, every day there must
be a representatives of the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe," she says, adding that otherwise it will be impossible to
stop hostilities there within a short period of time in the event of
a possible incident-triggered war.
Despite the war warnings, Freizer thinks that "it will be extremely
difficult for Azerbaijan to get back Nagorno-Karabakh and the occupied
territories."
"It will be very difficult because of the land and also because Azeris
have bought a lot of weapons, while they don't know how to use them,
they are not really prepared to use a lot of recourses they have,"
Freizer explained to ArmeniaNow.
The expert who has worked in Turkey for already five years is
convinced that Turkey's involvement in the process of negotiations
over Karabakh will not be dangerous for Armenia, but, on the contrary,
"may actually be useful."
"The likelihood of renewed hostilities in Karabakh is a real
concern for Turkey and Turkey is able to persuade Azerbaijan to be
ready for compromises in order to get a negotiated solution. Turkey
understands well that if a war breaks out, it will find itself in a
rather difficult situation, as on the one hand there will be pressure
from Azerbaijan to help, but on the other hand it understands that by
that step it will worsen its relations with Russia. Besides, Turkey
is a NATO member and will not start any military operations without
permission," says Freizer.
According to the ICG expert, Turkey "extremely" values relations with
Russia, even more than its relations with the United States. "And
considering this fact, Turkey will never go against Russia in the
Karabakh settlement process," adds Freizer.
Freizer also addressed the process of resettlement in territories
outside Karabakh proper now controlled by the Karabakh military,
calling it "very dangerous".
"Settling people in occupied territories, whose status is not clear,
just means that they are putting them in a very dangerous and unsure
situation, so I think that it is very bad and there is no reason, as
in principles Armenia says that they will return occupied territories,
so this means that these people will have to be displaced again,"
says Freizer.
From: A. Papazian
Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow
21.04.11
The Istanbul-based Director of the Europe Program of the International
Crisis Group (ICG) Sabine Freizer warns that the Karabakh peace
process is endangered and "it is possible a war will break out and
this war will be difficult to stop."
"We are more than ever concerned over this. We, the international
community, speak about it from time to time. The Russia-Georgia war
took many by surprise, but we had repeatedly warned that such a threat
was possible, the same is in the case with Karabakh, the danger is
increasing day by day," Freizer said in an interview with ArmeniaNow
and four other Armenian media whose reporters are in Turkey these days.
Freizer, who has been dealing with South Caucasus matters since 2004,
thinks that "the threat of war is clearly growing".
"This is because there is no progress in negotiations and every day in
Azerbaijan they start thinking more and more that if it is impossible
to resolve the issue peacefully, then it can be solved militarily,"
says the expert, adding that Azerbaijan's growing military budget is
already a serious threat to regional peace.
"We think that it is quite possible that the Azerbaijani government
will end up in a war by accident...they will kind of push Armenians
into making small incidents, but it will create a strong reaction by
the Armenians," she says.
According to Freizer, to prevent such a possible clash, the
international community needs to react more quickly and sternly to
ceasefire violations in the conflict zone.
"Moreover, I believe that the monitoring should be carried out not once
a month or at a longer interval, but every day, every day there must
be a representatives of the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe," she says, adding that otherwise it will be impossible to
stop hostilities there within a short period of time in the event of
a possible incident-triggered war.
Despite the war warnings, Freizer thinks that "it will be extremely
difficult for Azerbaijan to get back Nagorno-Karabakh and the occupied
territories."
"It will be very difficult because of the land and also because Azeris
have bought a lot of weapons, while they don't know how to use them,
they are not really prepared to use a lot of recourses they have,"
Freizer explained to ArmeniaNow.
The expert who has worked in Turkey for already five years is
convinced that Turkey's involvement in the process of negotiations
over Karabakh will not be dangerous for Armenia, but, on the contrary,
"may actually be useful."
"The likelihood of renewed hostilities in Karabakh is a real
concern for Turkey and Turkey is able to persuade Azerbaijan to be
ready for compromises in order to get a negotiated solution. Turkey
understands well that if a war breaks out, it will find itself in a
rather difficult situation, as on the one hand there will be pressure
from Azerbaijan to help, but on the other hand it understands that by
that step it will worsen its relations with Russia. Besides, Turkey
is a NATO member and will not start any military operations without
permission," says Freizer.
According to the ICG expert, Turkey "extremely" values relations with
Russia, even more than its relations with the United States. "And
considering this fact, Turkey will never go against Russia in the
Karabakh settlement process," adds Freizer.
Freizer also addressed the process of resettlement in territories
outside Karabakh proper now controlled by the Karabakh military,
calling it "very dangerous".
"Settling people in occupied territories, whose status is not clear,
just means that they are putting them in a very dangerous and unsure
situation, so I think that it is very bad and there is no reason, as
in principles Armenia says that they will return occupied territories,
so this means that these people will have to be displaced again,"
says Freizer.
From: A. Papazian