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Paul J. Sullivan: The importance of Turkey to the Arab world

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  • Paul J. Sullivan: The importance of Turkey to the Arab world

    http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/29/151033.html

    Paul J. Sullivan: The importance of Turkey to the Arab world
    Sunday, 29 May 2011

    As we approach the June 12 elections in Turkey and as we observe the
    tumultuous changes happening in the Middle East it is important to
    take a look at the importance of Turkey. Surely in a short article
    like this not enough could be said about Turkey, its importance to the
    region, to NATO, to the European Union, for Western-Islamic relations,
    water security, energy security and so much more. But I will give an
    introduction to some of the main issues and hope that many of you will
    follow through and look more into Turkey. Turkey is one of the most
    populous countries in the Middle East, right up there with Egypt. It
    also has a very powerful military and a quickly growing economy.
    Turkey is the largest investor in northern Iraq and these investments
    and the development from them have helped to stabilize this part of
    Iraq.

    Turkey is also a major investor in Central Asia and its construction
    companies can be found at work in many parts of the world. Although it
    faces unemployment and underemployment problems, economic structural
    issues and more, it has come a long way since the darker days of its
    economy not so long ago. Turkey has bounced back rather well from the
    financial crisis mostly.

    One of the bigger concerns now is that it may be overheating and too
    much investment may be happening - and possibly there may be a bubble
    or two there. There is some fragility in the Turkish economy, but
    overall it could be considered one of the success stories of the
    recent past of a country that is moving forward rather rapidly, but
    without the press and accolades of a China or Brazil. Nonetheless, it
    is an economy to watch and a place where some of the smartest
    investors are either already there or are keeping a keen out for
    opportunity there.

    Turkey is pursuing a full spectrum foreign policy reaching out to as
    many countries as possible. It has its own national goals and security
    issues and many of these are reflected in its foreign policy. It has
    cautiously reached out to its problematic neighbor Iran, but at the
    same time keeps fairly good relations with the United States, the Gulf
    Cooperation Council and the rest of its NATO partners. Importantly,
    Turkey seems to be under no illusions about the nature of the Iranian
    leadership.

    Its relations with Greece, although far from perfect, have improved
    greatly. Turkey has been a big part of NATO operations in Afghanistan
    and has contributed to many UN peacekeeping and other international
    military and security operations. It has walked a fine line on the
    situation in Libya and has tried its mightiest to understand its
    position regarding the Arab Spring. Its relations with Israel are not
    the best and the flotilla incident made things much worse.

    Turkey seems to have distinctly turned to the East on many issues and
    sees itself as a leader within the Muslim world. It still has some
    historical baggage from the Ottoman Empire to deal with regard to the
    Arab states and others. Its relations with Russia are sometimes
    complex, but hardly as they were during the Cold War or during the
    Ottoman days.

    Turkey seems to be coming to terms slowly with Armenia. Many of its
    top business people seem to want to move forward more quickly with
    better relations with that neighbor. However, there are some
    historical sensitivities that needs to be worked out between them and
    amongst the supporters and detractors of each.

    Turkey seems to be struggling, but thankfully peacefully, with its
    identity. Every time I go there I am told it is both east and west,
    Asia and Europe. Indeed it is, but it also seems to be trying to come
    to grips with its Islamic identity and how this fits in with its
    constitution, which is predicated upon a secular state defended by the
    military, and with the social and cultural pressures placed upon it by
    local and regional events. The coming election could be an important
    point in that identity development, which will likely be ongoing for
    many years to come.

    Turkey is a functioning democracy in a country that is predominantly
    Muslim. It is an example, like Malaysia, where democracy and Islam are
    compatible. Actually, the second largest Muslim population in the
    world (after Indonesia) is in India, which is also the largest
    democracy by population.

    Some people in the countries of the Arab Spring are looking to Turkey
    as a possible model for the development of democracy. They should take
    care, however, in seeing the cultural and historical differences
    between them and Turkey, and should also take care to not expect to
    leap forward toward democracy without developing the proper checks and
    balances and liberalizing institutions. Turkey is in many ways still
    struggling with these parts of its democracy development. It is far
    from perfect, and most Turks would agree, it is working through its
    internal contradictions and complexities in what seems to be a very
    productive manner.

    Each and everyone one of the countries now in transition needs to
    work through the very complex issues of its future political and
    economic development. They could learn a lot from Turkey, but a full
    transplantation of the Turkish model could prove to be very difficult.

    Turkey is also an important bridge between Islam and the West and
    will likely be so for many decades, if not centuries, to come. Turkey
    is both east and west and can communicate clearly and effectively in
    both directions, and also from North to South.


    Turkey is also a key player in the water and energy security of some
    important regional players and beyond. It is the major source of the
    waters of the Tigris and Euphrates and what is does with its water
    flowing toward Iraq and Syria can have huge effects downstream. Turkey
    is becoming a hugely important connecting stream via pipelines for
    energy from Central Asia, Russia and more to the Europeans. Pipeline
    systems that are planned could make it one of the most important
    energy connectors in the world. The Bosporus is also an important
    energy linkage, and possible choke point or global importance.

    Turkey is also a transshipment point for vast amounts of cargo and
    other trade. It could also prove to be a major investment and finance
    connector globally if the financial infrastructure and institutions in
    the country are more fully developed.

    The EU could be a bit more welcoming to this growing power on its
    doorstep. When people discuss emerging powers they mostly focus on
    China and India. Turkey should be on their radar screens in a very big
    way.

    Turkey is important for economic, energy, water, diplomatic,
    military, political, inter-religious, intra-regional and
    inter-regional relations. It is a global player. We should all be
    keeping a keen eye toward Turkey in the future. My guess is that it
    will become an even more important global player.

    Ataturk brought Turkey back from the abyss and saved the country in
    many ways. Turkey's present and future leaders have the profound
    responsibility to carry that responsibility further. I have a lot of
    hope that they can succeed at that, even with the significant internal
    and external challenges they will likely face. It is a great country
    with great promise.

    (Professor Paul Sullivan teaches at National Defense University and
    Georgetown University. He can be reached at: [email protected]

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