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BETWEEN KOCHARYAN AND OLIGARCHY
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments25850.html
Published: 17:40:47 - 17/04/2012
Having nominated 250 people for parliament, Serzh Sargsyan conducts
the campaign of the Republican Party almost alone. He visits community
by community, region by region, and he is accompanied only by local
majority candidates and local lords, heads of communities, mayors. It
looks like a protocol more than a campaign.
Serzh Sargsyan handled the campaigns similarly in 2007 and and 2008.
The result is hardly any better than it would be if other Republicans
were involved in the campaign.
Perhaps the goal is not the result but the political message. Serzh
Sargsyan is trying to keep a distance from the traditional Republican
Party to hint to the society that it is not his team.
On the other hand, in the past 4 years Serzh Sargsyan was unable to
show the society where his team is, who its members are.
Serzh Sargsyan who speaks about change and modernization was expected
to introduce a team that would be suitable for his declarations. No
team is introduced to the society while the old team is pushed to
parliament.
Although it is possible that the old team pushes Serzh Sargsyan and
has him work for them in return for their support in the presidential
election in 2013.
For Serzh Sargsyan, the key issue is the presidential election in 2013.
It was clearly felt from his New Year message on the eve of 2012. Then
he stated that the parliament is not a means of holding on to power,
it is not an end in itself.
Perhaps the reason is that Serzh Sargsyan does not have a team to
form parliament. Therefore, he delegated formation of parliament
to the criminal oligarchy, hoping that he will rely on the criminal
oligarchy in the presidential election of 2013.
At the same time, Sargsyan thus expects to impede the advancement
of the Prosperous Armenia and its shadow leader Robert Kocharyan,
depriving Kocharyan of the possibility to play in the field of the
criminal oligarchy.
The point is that the criminal oligarchic system which crystallized
and institutionalized during Robert Kocharyan was perceived as the
most suitable platform for his political return or revenge.
The point is that the criminal oligarchic system had grievances
during Serzh Sargsyan's presidency and Tigran Sargsyan's tenure for
several reasons. On the one hand, commitments to reforms, monopolies
and oligopolies were unpleasant for the system. On the other hand,
it was unpleasant that in the absence of real resistance to these
systems a process of redistribution of the economic resource was
underway which was activated from time to time.
It was difficult for the criminal-oligarchic system to accept the
rules established by Serzh Sargsyan and Tigran Sargsyan, and they
were nostalgic about Robert Kocharyan's quiet period. Some people
even openly expressed their preference, such as Gurgen Arsenyan who
is N4 on the Prosperous Armenia list.
Hence, there was a high possibility that Robert Kocharyan would use
the dissatisfaction of the criminal and oligarchic resource for his
political return either personally or represented by Gagik Tsarukyan
or Vartan Oskanian.
Public support could be a resistance resource for Serzh Sargsyan by
means of a relationship based on new values and content, as well as
the constitution of a new team and a new system.
However, the lack of political will and the financial crisis did
not allow Serzh Sargsyan to act more effectively and look far beyond
propaganda.
In this situation, ahead of the parliamentary election all Sargsyan
can do is to choose between compromise with Kocharyan and a compromise
with the criminal oligarchic resource by giving the latter possibly
big pre-election freedom. Sargsyan has chosen the second, perhaps
expecting that his second term will be in a more favorable period to
form his own government and ensure post-presidential guarantees in
the face of this team.
At the same time, Serzh Sargsyan has sent Robert Kocharyan into a
complicated or maybe unusual situation by forcing him to play in the
so-called social and civil field, depriving him of the criminal and
oligarchic platform. And this platform, besides being alien to Robert
Kocharyan, contains a number of objective hindrances and opponents.
And even if the Armenian National Congress agrees to cooperate with
him, this prospect is, nevertheless, vague because the Congress-PAP
cooperation will be too vulnerable in the same social and civil sense.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments25850.html
Published: 17:40:47 - 17/04/2012
Having nominated 250 people for parliament, Serzh Sargsyan conducts
the campaign of the Republican Party almost alone. He visits community
by community, region by region, and he is accompanied only by local
majority candidates and local lords, heads of communities, mayors. It
looks like a protocol more than a campaign.
Serzh Sargsyan handled the campaigns similarly in 2007 and and 2008.
The result is hardly any better than it would be if other Republicans
were involved in the campaign.
Perhaps the goal is not the result but the political message. Serzh
Sargsyan is trying to keep a distance from the traditional Republican
Party to hint to the society that it is not his team.
On the other hand, in the past 4 years Serzh Sargsyan was unable to
show the society where his team is, who its members are.
Serzh Sargsyan who speaks about change and modernization was expected
to introduce a team that would be suitable for his declarations. No
team is introduced to the society while the old team is pushed to
parliament.
Although it is possible that the old team pushes Serzh Sargsyan and
has him work for them in return for their support in the presidential
election in 2013.
For Serzh Sargsyan, the key issue is the presidential election in 2013.
It was clearly felt from his New Year message on the eve of 2012. Then
he stated that the parliament is not a means of holding on to power,
it is not an end in itself.
Perhaps the reason is that Serzh Sargsyan does not have a team to
form parliament. Therefore, he delegated formation of parliament
to the criminal oligarchy, hoping that he will rely on the criminal
oligarchy in the presidential election of 2013.
At the same time, Sargsyan thus expects to impede the advancement
of the Prosperous Armenia and its shadow leader Robert Kocharyan,
depriving Kocharyan of the possibility to play in the field of the
criminal oligarchy.
The point is that the criminal oligarchic system which crystallized
and institutionalized during Robert Kocharyan was perceived as the
most suitable platform for his political return or revenge.
The point is that the criminal oligarchic system had grievances
during Serzh Sargsyan's presidency and Tigran Sargsyan's tenure for
several reasons. On the one hand, commitments to reforms, monopolies
and oligopolies were unpleasant for the system. On the other hand,
it was unpleasant that in the absence of real resistance to these
systems a process of redistribution of the economic resource was
underway which was activated from time to time.
It was difficult for the criminal-oligarchic system to accept the
rules established by Serzh Sargsyan and Tigran Sargsyan, and they
were nostalgic about Robert Kocharyan's quiet period. Some people
even openly expressed their preference, such as Gurgen Arsenyan who
is N4 on the Prosperous Armenia list.
Hence, there was a high possibility that Robert Kocharyan would use
the dissatisfaction of the criminal and oligarchic resource for his
political return either personally or represented by Gagik Tsarukyan
or Vartan Oskanian.
Public support could be a resistance resource for Serzh Sargsyan by
means of a relationship based on new values and content, as well as
the constitution of a new team and a new system.
However, the lack of political will and the financial crisis did
not allow Serzh Sargsyan to act more effectively and look far beyond
propaganda.
In this situation, ahead of the parliamentary election all Sargsyan
can do is to choose between compromise with Kocharyan and a compromise
with the criminal oligarchic resource by giving the latter possibly
big pre-election freedom. Sargsyan has chosen the second, perhaps
expecting that his second term will be in a more favorable period to
form his own government and ensure post-presidential guarantees in
the face of this team.
At the same time, Serzh Sargsyan has sent Robert Kocharyan into a
complicated or maybe unusual situation by forcing him to play in the
so-called social and civil field, depriving him of the criminal and
oligarchic platform. And this platform, besides being alien to Robert
Kocharyan, contains a number of objective hindrances and opponents.
And even if the Armenian National Congress agrees to cooperate with
him, this prospect is, nevertheless, vague because the Congress-PAP
cooperation will be too vulnerable in the same social and civil sense.