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  • Caucasus 2012 & Sochi 2014

    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    August 10, 2012 Friday

    CAUCASUS'2012 AND SOCHI'2014


    by Vladimir Mukhin
    Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 8, 2012, p. 1
    COMBAT TRAINING; No. 377

    UNITS INVOLVED IN THE MILITARY EXERCISE TO BE RUN WILL HANDLE
    DOMESTIC PROBLEMS OF THE SOUTHERN RUSSIA RATHER THAN GEOPOLITICAL
    ISSUES; Strategic exercise to be run in the southern part of Russia
    upset official Tbilisi.

    Pestered by the Georgian authorities, the U.S. Helsinki Commission
    appealed to Russia to cancel the forthcoming strategic exercise
    Caucasus'2012 scheduled to take place between September 17 and 23 in
    the southern Russia and in the allegedly occupied South Ossetia and
    Abkhazia. Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov repeated
    yesterday that the exercise in question posed no threats to any
    foreign country.

    The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe also known as the
    U.S. Helsinki Commission is an independent U.S. government agency
    created by the Congress to monitor and encourage compliance with the
    Helsinki Final Act. This body monitors the human rights situation in
    56 countries. The Commission includes nine members from the U.S. House
    of Representatives, nine from the U.S. Senate, and one member each
    from the departments of state, defense, and trade. Its appeal to the
    Russian leadership apparently demonstrates the official opinion of the
    American Administration. Like many other countries, the United States
    denies South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two republics established after the
    Five Day War in August 2008, legitimacy and recognition. The conflict
    between Georgia and Russia broke out exactly four years ago. When it
    was over, Russia established military bases on the territories of the
    two republics. It assists Abkhazia and South Ossetia economically and
    from the military standpoint.

    Makarov emphasized that the legend of Caucasus'2012 stipulated actions
    on the territory of the Southern Military District alone. It is known
    meanwhile that the Russian bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia belong
    to the Southern Military District. It means that their personnel will
    participate in the exercise as well. In fact, 58th Army Commander
    Major General Andrei Gurulev already said that the operational group
    of the 4th Military Base (South Ossetia) was going to take part in the
    military exercise ("... like other units of the 58th Army"). Gurulev
    explained that it would perform its tasks in Kapustin Yar in Russia,
    and not in South Ossetia. He added that some tasks would also be
    performed by operational groups of the 7th Military Base from Abkhazia
    and the 102nd from Armenia.

    Armenian Defense Minister Seiran Oganjan recently said that
    Caucasus'2012 was to be preceded by Cooperation'2012, exercise of the
    CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization's Rapid Response
    Collective Forces. According to Russian Airborne Troops Commander
    Colonel General Vladimir Shamanov, units of the 98th Airborne Division
    were handpicked for Cooperation'2012. Shamanov did not say exactly how
    these units were going to make it to Armenia. One might suggest that
    they will be flown in above the territory of Azerbaijan (which is
    unlikely) or Iran (which more probable). It is hard to imagine the
    Russian military to make the trip across Georgia because a year ago
    official Tbilisi banned flights of Russian military aircraft above the
    territory of Georgia.

    Deputy Chief of the General Staff Colonel General Alexander Postnikov
    said, "Exercise Caucasus'2012 has nothing to do with the situation in
    neighbor countries... It is in order to avoid speculations that we
    decided not to involve in the exercise the units from Russian military
    bases abroad."

    Makarov said, "The exercise is to be run to prepare the troops for
    deployment to ensure military security of the southwestern part of
    Russia... The troops will practice in Prudboi, Kapustin Yar, Ashuluk,
    and Rayevskoy i.e. the shooting ranges located on the territory of the
    Southern Military District." Makarov added that operational groups
    from the Interior Ministry, Federal Security Service, Federal Service
    of Protection, and Ministry of Emergencies were to be involved in what
    he called "the largest exercise this year".

    Analysis shows indeed that the exercise in question is to be run with
    an emphasis on Russia's domestic problems and not international
    geopolitical issues. Black Sea Fleet Commander Rear Admiral Alexander
    Fedotenkov recently said that the group of ships representing three
    fleets (Northern, Baltic, Black Sea) currently in the Mediterranean
    was going to take part in Caucasus'2012. According to the Defense
    Ministry, landing ships of the Northern Fleet Alexander Otrakovsky,
    Georgy Pobedonosets, and Kondopoga will visit Novorossiisk on August
    11 and 12. It is believed that assets of the Russian Navy in the Black
    Sea will practice tasks and missions aiming to ensure security of the
    Winter Olympic Games in Sochi in 2014. Ground forces will practice
    dealing with illegal armed formations operating in the Caucasus.

    The Georgian authorities in the meantime claim that Russia will "once
    again" attack Georgia after Caucasus' 2012. Russian defense and
    foreign ministries deny all allegations.




    From: A. Papazian
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