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RUSSIAN-TURKISH DEAL AGAINST ARMENIA
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/politics/view/28296
Press secretary of Russia's president Dmitri Peskov told the Russia's
Voice about Putin's visit to Turkey. He in particular said that
Moscow would be happy to meet Turkey's possible desire to join the
Customs Union.
Actually, Peskov hints that Putin proposed this idea to Turkey during
his visit. In addition, Turkey may have accepted it. This is the
reason why Peskov uses the "possible desire" term. Peskov may also
want to intrigue.
It will be interesting to see Turkey's reaction. Perhaps, Russia
invites Turkey to join the union through Peskov's statement. In other
words, it is possible that this idea occurred to the Russian side
after Putin's visit to Turkey in order to maintain the intrigue and
the geopolitical significance of the visit because the Russian-Turkish
high-level meeting, in this sense, passed without any significant
events.
It is not ruled out that Russia puts forward the idea on Turkey's
membership ahead of the CIS summit in Ashgabat in order to exert
psychological pressure on Armenia or to confuse Serzh Sargsyan who
will most probably try to understand before leaving for Ashgabat what
they talked about Turkey's membership to the Customs' Union.
Some Russian experts already say that Turkey's possible membership
to the Customs Union may change Yerevan's position depriving it of
arguments. One of them, Guy Borisov, said that Turkey's membership
will lead to the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, and Yerevan
will not longer have the argument of the lack of a common border
which helps it eliminate Putin's pressure.
It is difficult to say whether Turkey is interested in the Customs
Union. But Turkey will probably say nothing before the Ashgabat
summit. Most probably, Putin asked has them not to talk before Yerevan
agrees or issues a relevant statement.
In other words, we are now dealing with a new Russian-Turkish deal
against Yerevan, which has historical precedents. In this sense, it
could be predicted that Putin's visit to Turkey would bring about a
similar deal since Russians are used to improve their relations with
Turks at the expense of Armenians.
But the statement of the Russian president's spokesman may be a simple
"bluff", and the Armenian side should not panic and review its stances
of the Eurasian Union. It is necessary to continue the policy of
protracting time but it should not be done without a purpose and must
be aimed at further integration with the EU. The positive influence
on Armenia will be the guarantee to retort Russia's Eurasian attack.
Russia hints that the Eurasian prospect may promise the opening of
the Armenian-Turkish border. Russia has promised to "open" it in 2008
urging Serzh Sargsyan to announce the start of football diplomacy.
This tactics was about to end in the return of some territories of
Karabakh regarding which the Russian foreign minister hinted that
compromise on the territories may ensure progress towards opening
the Armenian-Turkish border.
Fortunately, the West intervened and the Armenian-Turkish football
diplomacy was frozen and they did not go beyond the status quo of
the Karabakh issue.
This is the second attempt of Russia to tempt Armenia with the prospect
of opening of the border. The border of course won't open. In the
first case, it was just a bail for Moscow to deploy Russian troops
in the Karabakh zone. In the second case, it is Russia's attempt to
seize Armenia's agreement to join the Eurasian Union but the border
will not open anyway because it would be a regional challenge for
Russia both in political and economic terms.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/politics/view/28296
Press secretary of Russia's president Dmitri Peskov told the Russia's
Voice about Putin's visit to Turkey. He in particular said that
Moscow would be happy to meet Turkey's possible desire to join the
Customs Union.
Actually, Peskov hints that Putin proposed this idea to Turkey during
his visit. In addition, Turkey may have accepted it. This is the
reason why Peskov uses the "possible desire" term. Peskov may also
want to intrigue.
It will be interesting to see Turkey's reaction. Perhaps, Russia
invites Turkey to join the union through Peskov's statement. In other
words, it is possible that this idea occurred to the Russian side
after Putin's visit to Turkey in order to maintain the intrigue and
the geopolitical significance of the visit because the Russian-Turkish
high-level meeting, in this sense, passed without any significant
events.
It is not ruled out that Russia puts forward the idea on Turkey's
membership ahead of the CIS summit in Ashgabat in order to exert
psychological pressure on Armenia or to confuse Serzh Sargsyan who
will most probably try to understand before leaving for Ashgabat what
they talked about Turkey's membership to the Customs' Union.
Some Russian experts already say that Turkey's possible membership
to the Customs Union may change Yerevan's position depriving it of
arguments. One of them, Guy Borisov, said that Turkey's membership
will lead to the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, and Yerevan
will not longer have the argument of the lack of a common border
which helps it eliminate Putin's pressure.
It is difficult to say whether Turkey is interested in the Customs
Union. But Turkey will probably say nothing before the Ashgabat
summit. Most probably, Putin asked has them not to talk before Yerevan
agrees or issues a relevant statement.
In other words, we are now dealing with a new Russian-Turkish deal
against Yerevan, which has historical precedents. In this sense, it
could be predicted that Putin's visit to Turkey would bring about a
similar deal since Russians are used to improve their relations with
Turks at the expense of Armenians.
But the statement of the Russian president's spokesman may be a simple
"bluff", and the Armenian side should not panic and review its stances
of the Eurasian Union. It is necessary to continue the policy of
protracting time but it should not be done without a purpose and must
be aimed at further integration with the EU. The positive influence
on Armenia will be the guarantee to retort Russia's Eurasian attack.
Russia hints that the Eurasian prospect may promise the opening of
the Armenian-Turkish border. Russia has promised to "open" it in 2008
urging Serzh Sargsyan to announce the start of football diplomacy.
This tactics was about to end in the return of some territories of
Karabakh regarding which the Russian foreign minister hinted that
compromise on the territories may ensure progress towards opening
the Armenian-Turkish border.
Fortunately, the West intervened and the Armenian-Turkish football
diplomacy was frozen and they did not go beyond the status quo of
the Karabakh issue.
This is the second attempt of Russia to tempt Armenia with the prospect
of opening of the border. The border of course won't open. In the
first case, it was just a bail for Moscow to deploy Russian troops
in the Karabakh zone. In the second case, it is Russia's attempt to
seize Armenia's agreement to join the Eurasian Union but the border
will not open anyway because it would be a regional challenge for
Russia both in political and economic terms.