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Challenges to Armenia in The Globalizing World

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  • Challenges to Armenia in The Globalizing World

    CHALLENGES TO ARMENIA IN THE GLOBALIZING WORLD

    http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6829
    27-12-2012 23:45:45 | Armenia | Articles and Analyses


    Gagik Harutyunyan
    Director, Noravank Foundation
    In Arnold Toynbeeâ??s classical formulation, the viability of
    civilizations depends on their ability to adequately respond to
    challenges. In this sense it can be stated that for several millennia
    Armenia has been able to face (to various extent) its challenges.
    Globalization accompanied humankind since ages and at times took the
    shape and essence of so-called â??local globalization/unificationâ?? [1,
    Ñ?. 80]. However, we shall examine the last wave of globalization,
    which resulted, inter alia, in collapse of the socialist system and
    the USSR. Undoubtedly, this phenomenon was a geopolitical,
    civilizational, humanitarian and economic catastrophe and as such, it
    was a serious challenge for Armenia. Nevertheless, Armenia adequately
    responded to the threats, won the war against Azerbaijan and liberated
    Artsakh, as it was the most accomplished state in the region (which
    above all, stemmed from our civilizational, state and military
    traditions and the spiritual, intellectual, scientific, technological
    and industrial potential created in the Second Republic).

    Armenia: the Most Accomplished State of the Region

    As years passed, Armenia (RoA and NKR) maintained the status of the
    most stable state, and this is not just a statement. As known, Foreign
    Policy, a reputable magazine, and Fund for Peace annually publish the
    Failed States Index rankings. These are prepared with a special
    methodology based on assessments made using an evaluation toolkit,
    which are expressed in values of 12 indicators (see Table 1).
    According to this methodology, the lower the score for a country, the
    more stable/accomplished it is, i.e. the lowest ranking country is the
    most accomplished one. Results of the 2012 Failed States Index are
    shown in the Table 2 below1 (the numbered columns correspond to the
    indicators of Table 1). As seen, Armenia has considerably lower scores
    than its neighbors and is a regional leader with a wide margin, i.e.
    Armenia is the most accomplished state in the region, which has been
    traditionally the case for a number of years in this reputable
    international ranking system.

    Table 1



    Table 2
    Failed States Index 2012


    The low value of the 8th indicator, â??Progressive Deterioration of
    Public Servicesâ??, deserves special attention, as it signifies a
    developed state governance system, as compared to the neighbors.

    At the same time Table 2 indicates that Armenia faces serious problems
    in social and demographic dimensions (indicators 1-4), which will be
    discussed later while reviewing internal challenges of Armenia. It has
    to be mentioned that in an accomplished state every professional
    subgroup has to pursue its own professional functions, and in this
    sense one of the primary objectives of the analystsâ?? community is
    predicting the expected challenges and attempting to point out the
    opportunities to adequately respond to those.

    Possible Disruption of the Regional Political and Military Balance

    Under the above mentioned circumstances it is worthwhile to consider
    the known fact that the Greater Middle East is in so-called
    â??turbulentâ??, unstable conditions resulting from developments around
    Iranâ??s nuclear program, war in Syria and ongoing processes in the
    context of â??Arab Springâ??. This new regional situation is a challenge
    not only to the Armenian communities, the very existence of which is
    currently threatened, and possible disintegration of which may
    radically change the shape and essence of the Armenian Diaspora. This
    instability poses a direct threat to the security of Armenia, since in
    some scenarios weakening of Iran2 may disrupt the existing military
    and political balance in the region and lead to strengthening of
    Turkey, which may become a dominant regional power [2]. Attention
    needs to be paid also to the small value of the 12th indicator for
    this country, which points to low dependence of Turkey on foreign
    countries and signifies its endeavor to act independently, without
    much regard to the senior NATO partners. Indoctrinated with
    neo-Ottoman ideology, the Turkish political elite is more than
    ambitious and aspires to build:

    an â??Islamic NATOâ?? and â??Islamic Peacekeeping Forcesâ?? (thus reviving the
    agendas of former prime minister and radical Islamist Erbakan, who is
    ErdoÄ?anâ??s ideological father);
    nuclear weaponry;
    economic zone of Turkish lira.
    Emergence of a Turkey with such military, political and economic
    claims is a very serious challenge to Armenia. Undoubtedly,
    strengthening of Turkey, which has an uncompromising attitude in the
    NKR problem (with some analysts considering Turkey as a party to the
    conflict) and imposes blockade of our borders (equaling to an act of
    war), will toughen its stance against Armenia. Also, Turkeyâ??s nuclear
    program deserves special attention, as its implementation is an
    extremely serious challenge not only to Armenia, but also to Israel
    and Greece [1, p. 247, 3-5].

    Contemplating such scenarios implies complex approaches and in this
    context the scenario of â??Turkeyâ??s weakening and partitionâ?? [1, p. 179]
    has to be considered as well. It is no surprise that currently the
    analystsâ?? community actively discusses the â??bad futureâ?? of not only
    Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but also Turkey. It is more than
    substantiated, because no signs of solutions for ongoing unrest in
    this country are visible on the horizon: the â??Kurdish causeâ?? is on
    agenda again and has been internationalized3, whereas the so-called
    â??identity crisisâ?? deepens in the society, leading to escalation of
    ethno-religious conflicts. In addition, the ideological/political
    standoff increasingly exacerbates between supporters of the current
    Islamic and formerly dominant secular development models. Some
    commentators note that the current neo-Ottomanism based aggressive
    foreign policy of Prime Minister ErdoÄ?an contains considerable risks
    (see for example [6, 7]). However, it has to be considered that such
    seemingly desirable developments also pose a peculiar challenge to
    Armenia, an adequate response to which requires prior planning.

    Armenia as a â??frontier countryâ?? and â??Global governanceâ?? scenarios

    In any circumstances it has to be recognized that ongoing processes in
    the Middle East definitely integrate the Islamic World and detach it
    from theWestern, European World. This is a problem for Armenia not
    only in the event if Turkey becomes dominant, but also in the opposite
    case, if it succumbs. Collapse of secular administrations in the
    Middle East and ongoing religious radicalization of societies
    destabilize the region, and hence, make it unpredictable in military
    and political terms.

    Remarkably, possibility of such trend has been pointed out already in
    2010 in a report titled Global Governance 2025 prepared by the US
    National Intelligence Council (NIC), EU Institute for Security Studies
    (EUISS), as well as by a number of Russian, Chinese and Indian
    experts4. Among other predicted developments, the following scenarios
    deserve attention in this report:

    Fragmentation
    Concert of Europe Redux
    According to the authors of the report, the pessimistic
    â??Fragmentationâ?? scenario implies that trends of â??civilizational
    divisionâ?? begin to dominate in the world, leading to various
    conflicts. In particular, Asia builds its own regional order (which is
    very much reminiscent of the current situation in the Middle East
    ensuing the â??Arab Springâ??), while Europe â??turns its focus inward as it
    wrestlesâ?? with own problems. The second scenario is more optimistic,
    suggesting revival of Vienna Congress System5 (a.k.a. â??Concert of
    Europeâ??), although quite naturally in a new format. In other words, a
    powerful and unified Europe is established.

    The experts who authored this report (2010) viewed the mentioned two
    scenarios separately, whereas the current trends leave an impression
    that such global developments can occur simultaneously. This is
    evidenced by:

    Political and economic systems integration processes of the EU
    member-states, which may result in establishing EU as a unified and
    full-fledged geopolitical structure [8];
    The decision made by presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus to
    establish Eurasian Union (EAU) in 2013;
    The emergence of an idea among political and analyst communities of
    the leading European and post-Soviet states that EU and EAU countries
    should unite politically, so as to face the challenges of the
    â??fragmentingâ?? world (a larger-scale spinoff of the â??Concert of Europeâ??
    scenario that implies â??Greater Europeâ?? from Lisbon to Vladivostok (EU
    + EAU)).
    Against the backdrop of all of this it has to be acknowledged once
    again that Armenia is a frontier state to the Islamic World, which
    adds relevance to the task of putting our civilizational and
    geopolitical orientations in appropriate military/political formats.
    This political necessity prompts Armenia to actively participate in
    European and Eurasian integration processes, which would considerably
    improve the level of Armeniaâ??s security. However, it should be noted
    that in the Armenian analystsâ?? community sometimes one may hear
    opinions that the format of the EU Eastern Partnership and the issue
    of EAU membership are mutually exclusive processes. Apparently, such
    approaches are anachronistic, as they reflect the misconception of the
    first years of post-Soviet era with regard to â??escaping from the
    Russian Empire.â?? Indicatively, in the political circles of Armenia
    (where issues are viewed in a more realistic manner) an approach
    begins to dominate that integration processes within European and
    Eurasian formats are complementary, rather than contradictory.

    At the same time, the problem of â??integrationâ?? is relevant in the
    regional dimension and it needs to be emphasized that Georgia is also
    located on the edge of a geopolitical and civilizational â??fissureâ?? and
    it is a â??frontier stateâ??, too, although in a slightly more auspicious
    version. Potential coordination of efforts between these two regional
    neighboring countries would only contribute to integrating in the
    â??Concert of Europeâ?? in a more beneficial manner. Given the current
    changes happening in Georgia, it is not totally unlikely that such
    cooperation may make possible establishing a region with
    civilizational content stretching from Sukhumi to Stepanakert.

    Internal Challenges to the Security of Armenia

    As it is known, the cornerstone of national security for any country
    is first of all its internal resources. In this sense it is relevant
    to recall the words of Chinese strategist Sun Tzu: â??Being
    unconquerable lies with yourself; being conquerable lies with your
    enemy.â??

    It is known that in the aftermath of the USSR collapse Armenia
    encountered numerous economic and social problems, the ramifications
    of which are yet to be overcome. Armenian society is particularly
    concerned about demographic problems. The situation in this area is
    reflected in the indicators of columns 1, 2 and 4 of the Table 2;
    demographic pressures, massive movement of refugees or internally
    displaced persons and chronic and sustained human flight,
    respectively. These indicators suggest high values for their
    corresponding quantitative numbers, which points to a poor situation
    in this area. What causes concern is not only the high numbers of
    population outflow from Armenia, but also the fact that the number of
    persons involved in â??sophisticated workâ?? (i.e. highly knowledgeable
    professionals in various fields) has drastically diminished (some
    sources suggest as high as tenfold decrease). Also it is
    characteristic that the Third Republic spends dozens of times less
    funds on science and technology than the Second Republic did.

    The ensuing situation is directly related with the overall power of
    the state. There are different methods for quantitative expression of
    this concept (for instance, see [9]), but the formula by Ray S. Cline,
    a CIA analyst, seems most applicable [10]. We have added a new member
    D to this formula in order to reflect the factor of diaspora, which is
    relevant to the Armenian realities, with the resultant formula as
    follows:

    P = (C + E + M + D) Ã - (S + W)
    where:
    P is the power of state;
    C is the critical mass (population and territory);
    E is the economic/industrial capability;
    M is the military capability;
    D is the overall resources of diaspora;
    S is the strategic purpose;
    W is the will to pursue national policy.

    The formula suggests that a stateâ??s power depends not only on its
    population (C), but also on the countryâ??s intellectual and spiritual
    resources (S, W), because without those it is impossible to develop an
    effective national strategy, much less to attain the objectives of
    such strategy. Ostensibly, addressing such problems is impossible
    without mobilization of pertinent resources in both Armenia and
    Diaspora. It has to be also noted that our current understanding and
    knowledge about Diasporaâ??s (and sometimes also Armeniaâ??s) spiritual
    and intellectual potential are from being comprehensive. In this
    regard it seems appropriate to refer once again to the responsibility
    of professional subgroups. We believe one of the primary missions of
    our experts/analysts community is keeping an inventory of
    spiritual/intellectual resources in Armenia and Diaspora, and
    organizing these resources in a coordinated effort towards development
    of national strategic programs. In particular, programs need to be
    developed on halting population outflow and significantly increasing
    the spiritual/intellectual resources.

    Organizing such efforts is not an easy task. Admittedly, the
    scientific/R&D system of Armenia is rather disintegrated and there are
    no tools and methods that would allow experts in Armenia and Diaspora
    to conduct effective activities. For attaining these objectives it is
    worthwhile to establish a Research Network Institute (RNI), which
    should be sponsored both by the Armenian government and Diaspora.

    1 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/failed_states_index_2012_interactive

    2 Scenarios of a potential nuclear war between Israel and Iran deserve
    a separate discussion (see [1, p. 178])

    3 See for example: Ð?Ñ?Ñ?дÑ?кий лабиÑ?инÑ? ТÑ?Ñ?Ñ?ии,
    http://www.rodon.org/polit-121130105832

    4 Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture. National
    Intelligense Council, Europian Union Institute for Security Studies,
    September 2010,http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Global__Governance_2025.pdf

    5 This system was formed by representatives of Great Britain, Russia,
    Austria and other European countries based on agreements they reached
    in 1815 Vienna Congress (in aftermath of the Napoleanic Wars). The
    system quite effectively ensured so to speak â??collective securityâ?? of
    the European countries, until Crimean War broke out in 1853.

    References and Literature

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