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A Presidential Election in Armenia with Predictable Results
http://www.mirrorspectator.com/2012/12/28/a-presidential-election-in-armenia-with-predictable-results/
OPINION | DECEMBER 28, 2012 4:30 PM
By Edmond Y. Azadian
No matter what topic we choose today and no matter how festive a mood
we pretend we are in, we cannot avoid expressing our sentiments about
the brutal massacre of innocent children in Connecticut because the
tragedy strikes a sensitive chord in all of us. It reminds us all of
the traumatic experiences we all have faced as human beings. In the
case of the Armenians, it brings back tragic events from our
collective memory; we cannot help remembering the Armenian children
loaded onto boats in Trabzon during the Genocide and drowned at sea.
While forensic experts, psychologists and the police try to unravel
the motive behind the Connecticut massacre, no expertise is necessary
to find a motive for drowning the Armenian children; that was part and
parcel of a planned extermination of an entire nation.
Today, only a fragment of that nation is huddled in 10 percent of its
historic homeland and is struggling to survive - 21 years of
independence giving a new lease on life to a nation trying to make
sense of 21stcentury realities.
One of those realities is holding presidential elections, observing
democratic norms, all within the context of the political culture of
the Caucasus.
The Caucasus region is a powder keg where major power interests
converge and collide and any action by local actors may trigger
uncontrollable conflagrations. Therefore, Armenia is treading
carefully in a tug of war between the emerging Russian empire and Cold
War veterans of the West who try to clip Russia's budding wings.
For months, speculations have abounded regarding the presidential
election campaign, which will culminate on February 18, 2013, when
President Serge Sargisian will be reelected to a second term.
The campaign was manipulated so skillfully that the result is already
predictable to any citizen in Armenia.
For months, alliances and coalition collapses were predicted, with
potential candidates scrambling to capture the limelight. But after
the political opposition was cut to size during last year's
parliamentary elections, the forum was left to two major parties,
namely, the Republican Party of Sargisian and the Prosperous Armenia
Party of Gagik Tsarukyan. As it is well known, the latter was formed
by the former President Robert Kocharian in order to serve as a
launching pad for his political comeback. After testing the waters,
Kocharian quietly and cautiously retired to the background and the
party began promoting the candidacy of Vartan Oskanian, former
minister of foreign affairs for 10 years. Oskanian, being from the
diaspora, generated a knee- jerk opposition in Armenia, whether
expressed or tacit.
Additionally he had not partaken in the local mafia culture, which, in
essence, disqualifies someone from rising to power in Armenia.
Therefore, because he was a legitimate target, this prompted the
authorities to publicly intimidate him with a criminal investigation
into his financial dealings, that shifted the speculation on Mr.
Tsarukyan himself, as to whether he would run as a candidate or not.
It is believed that he has the following of half a million voters,
which makes a lot of difference given the Armenian election context.
Tsarukyan's meteoric rise exhilarated the opposition's hope to have
found a viable candidate to rally around.
HAK - or the Armenian National Congress - was weighing for a long time
whether to propose its own candidate in the person of former President
Levon Ter-Petrosian or rally around a candidate uniting all opposition
factions. And that candidate could potentially be Mr. Tsarukyan. The
first option presented only a dismal exit for the former president
from the political life, because the odds were obviously against him.
The Tsarukyan scenario seemed more pragmatic. The ARF (Dashnag Party),
perhaps would also hang its hat on the Tsarukyan candidacy despite
lingering rancor against the potential coalition partner Ter-Petrosian
from the past.
Mr. Tsarukyan kept waiting and teasing all the groups about his
decision, and then on 12-12-12 he dropped the other shoe and revealed
he would not submit his candidacy; his party offered a terse
announcement that it would not endorse any candidate, including former
hopeful Oskanian.
It is anyone's guess which way Mr. Tsarukyan's constituency would
vote. But the ruling Republican Party was relieved and certainly
gained from the elimination of a powerful contender and the opposition
lost its potential candidate.
The Dashnag party faces a crossroads; the leadership is split between
nominating its own candidate or not participating at all. In the first
case, they may be testing the incumbent; in the second case they may
benefit from the crumbs of power in paving the way for Mr. Sargisian
in his march to the presidential palace.
At this time there are some eight candidates, most of them don't enjoy
name recognition. Only Paruyr Hayrikyan is known as a perennial
candidate who has yet to win an office. Raffi Hovannisian is the
candidate of the Heritage Party, which has its own original platform,
but his candidacy also faces the same reservation which the voters
secretly have towards individuals or party from the Diaspora.
In this background the Republican Party held its 14th convention to
propose its candidate for Armenia's presidency. The Country of Laws
(Orinants Yerkir) Party , the ARF, ADL, Hunchuk and Democrats were
invited. The Heritage and Prosperous Armenian parties were excluded.
In a major speech, Mr. Sargisian outlined Armenia's achievements
during the last five years of his presidency and developed his plan
for the next five years.
His major theme was a secure Armenia as a military power, as an
economically prosperous country, a land of laws and a country on its
way to eradicating corruption.
Armenia is squeezed between the great powers and is confronted by
restless enemies at its borders. People instinctively realize the
situation and they know there is no time for political turmoil. They
take the president at his own word and believe he is sincere.
Barring any unforeseen developments, Serge Sargisian's election seems
to be a forgone conclusion.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
http://www.mirrorspectator.com/2012/12/28/a-presidential-election-in-armenia-with-predictable-results/
OPINION | DECEMBER 28, 2012 4:30 PM
By Edmond Y. Azadian
No matter what topic we choose today and no matter how festive a mood
we pretend we are in, we cannot avoid expressing our sentiments about
the brutal massacre of innocent children in Connecticut because the
tragedy strikes a sensitive chord in all of us. It reminds us all of
the traumatic experiences we all have faced as human beings. In the
case of the Armenians, it brings back tragic events from our
collective memory; we cannot help remembering the Armenian children
loaded onto boats in Trabzon during the Genocide and drowned at sea.
While forensic experts, psychologists and the police try to unravel
the motive behind the Connecticut massacre, no expertise is necessary
to find a motive for drowning the Armenian children; that was part and
parcel of a planned extermination of an entire nation.
Today, only a fragment of that nation is huddled in 10 percent of its
historic homeland and is struggling to survive - 21 years of
independence giving a new lease on life to a nation trying to make
sense of 21stcentury realities.
One of those realities is holding presidential elections, observing
democratic norms, all within the context of the political culture of
the Caucasus.
The Caucasus region is a powder keg where major power interests
converge and collide and any action by local actors may trigger
uncontrollable conflagrations. Therefore, Armenia is treading
carefully in a tug of war between the emerging Russian empire and Cold
War veterans of the West who try to clip Russia's budding wings.
For months, speculations have abounded regarding the presidential
election campaign, which will culminate on February 18, 2013, when
President Serge Sargisian will be reelected to a second term.
The campaign was manipulated so skillfully that the result is already
predictable to any citizen in Armenia.
For months, alliances and coalition collapses were predicted, with
potential candidates scrambling to capture the limelight. But after
the political opposition was cut to size during last year's
parliamentary elections, the forum was left to two major parties,
namely, the Republican Party of Sargisian and the Prosperous Armenia
Party of Gagik Tsarukyan. As it is well known, the latter was formed
by the former President Robert Kocharian in order to serve as a
launching pad for his political comeback. After testing the waters,
Kocharian quietly and cautiously retired to the background and the
party began promoting the candidacy of Vartan Oskanian, former
minister of foreign affairs for 10 years. Oskanian, being from the
diaspora, generated a knee- jerk opposition in Armenia, whether
expressed or tacit.
Additionally he had not partaken in the local mafia culture, which, in
essence, disqualifies someone from rising to power in Armenia.
Therefore, because he was a legitimate target, this prompted the
authorities to publicly intimidate him with a criminal investigation
into his financial dealings, that shifted the speculation on Mr.
Tsarukyan himself, as to whether he would run as a candidate or not.
It is believed that he has the following of half a million voters,
which makes a lot of difference given the Armenian election context.
Tsarukyan's meteoric rise exhilarated the opposition's hope to have
found a viable candidate to rally around.
HAK - or the Armenian National Congress - was weighing for a long time
whether to propose its own candidate in the person of former President
Levon Ter-Petrosian or rally around a candidate uniting all opposition
factions. And that candidate could potentially be Mr. Tsarukyan. The
first option presented only a dismal exit for the former president
from the political life, because the odds were obviously against him.
The Tsarukyan scenario seemed more pragmatic. The ARF (Dashnag Party),
perhaps would also hang its hat on the Tsarukyan candidacy despite
lingering rancor against the potential coalition partner Ter-Petrosian
from the past.
Mr. Tsarukyan kept waiting and teasing all the groups about his
decision, and then on 12-12-12 he dropped the other shoe and revealed
he would not submit his candidacy; his party offered a terse
announcement that it would not endorse any candidate, including former
hopeful Oskanian.
It is anyone's guess which way Mr. Tsarukyan's constituency would
vote. But the ruling Republican Party was relieved and certainly
gained from the elimination of a powerful contender and the opposition
lost its potential candidate.
The Dashnag party faces a crossroads; the leadership is split between
nominating its own candidate or not participating at all. In the first
case, they may be testing the incumbent; in the second case they may
benefit from the crumbs of power in paving the way for Mr. Sargisian
in his march to the presidential palace.
At this time there are some eight candidates, most of them don't enjoy
name recognition. Only Paruyr Hayrikyan is known as a perennial
candidate who has yet to win an office. Raffi Hovannisian is the
candidate of the Heritage Party, which has its own original platform,
but his candidacy also faces the same reservation which the voters
secretly have towards individuals or party from the Diaspora.
In this background the Republican Party held its 14th convention to
propose its candidate for Armenia's presidency. The Country of Laws
(Orinants Yerkir) Party , the ARF, ADL, Hunchuk and Democrats were
invited. The Heritage and Prosperous Armenian parties were excluded.
In a major speech, Mr. Sargisian outlined Armenia's achievements
during the last five years of his presidency and developed his plan
for the next five years.
His major theme was a secure Armenia as a military power, as an
economically prosperous country, a land of laws and a country on its
way to eradicating corruption.
Armenia is squeezed between the great powers and is confronted by
restless enemies at its borders. People instinctively realize the
situation and they know there is no time for political turmoil. They
take the president at his own word and believe he is sincere.
Barring any unforeseen developments, Serge Sargisian's election seems
to be a forgone conclusion.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress