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HOPELESS FRIENDSHIP OF YEREVAN WITH TEHRAN
Trend
Feb 1 2012
Azerbaijan
1 February 2012, 09:25 (GMT+04:00) Trend European news service
commentator Elmira Tariverdiyeva
Rising tension over Iran, new sanctions and oil embargo do not keep
Yerevan from close cooperation with Tehran. It seemed that Armenia
receiving from the U.S. dozens of millions of dollars as financial
assistance should have joined the Western embargo. However though
Armenia has always stressed high level of relations with the West
Yerevan has no other way out and cannot afford to stop supporting Iran.
Because of the territorial claims to all around it Armenia has close
borders with 2 of its 4 neighbors - Azerbaijan and Turkey. If there is
a threat of closure of borders with Iran as well (knowing tough nature
of Iranian leaders, there is no doubt they will do that in case Yerevan
stops fully supporting Tehran), Armenia will sign death penalty for
itself. Poor Armenia which doesn't have own reserves of hydrocarbons,
will not be able to survive under blockade conditions from the
neighbors and the single access to the external world through Georgia.
However today when Western countries do their best to stop Iranian
nuclear program, close cooperation of Armenia and Iran is impossible
not to damage international image of Yerevan. The West understands
that establishing more and more closer relations with Armenia Iran
pursues not so much economical as geopolitical goals, planning in
case of danger secure its rear as represented by Armenia. But does
the West need such Iranian 'rear' in the South Caucasus and won't
the U.S and the EU stop financial assistance to Yerevan in case such
situation emerges? Even if the West turns a blind eye to hopeless
friendship between Yerevan and Iran, issue of suitability of relations'
development remains open.
Iran which ranks fourth in terms of oil reserves and second in the
list of leading natural gas producers suffers from consequences of
Western sanctions much more than officially recognizes it.
Iranian Deputy Oil Minister Ahmad Qalebani took quite surprise step
revealing information on impact of sanctions in his article published
by the Iranian Student's News Agency (ISNA). According to the agency,
the deputy minister said production of crude oil in Iran in 2011
decreased compared to 2010. He said the decrease was caused by lack
of investment in development of oil fields.
In 2010 Iran produced on average about 4 million barrels of oil per
day and 3.5 million barrels in 2011.
The EU sanctions envisaging ban on purchase of oil, freezing of the
European assets of the Iranian Central Bank, as well as export of
equipment and technologies for the Iranian petrochemical industry
threatens Iran with serious economic problems.
Amidst this fate of Armenia which pins its hopes on joint with Iran
projects is seen very regrettable. There were a lot of cooperation
plans. For example, first of all a question arises about projects
of construction of the third power transmission lines from Iran to
Armenia with a capacity of 800-900 MW worth $110 million, construction
of the largest in the South Caucasus hydro power plant at Aras river
worth $500 million.
Construction which should begin in 2012 will be financed by Iranian
companies. However, taking into consideration inflation rate and fall
of the Iranian rial the question arises whether these projects will be
completed. Iranian rial fell by 10 per cent during the trade session
on Jan.23 after it became known that the EU introduced economical
sanctions against the Iranian Republic.
At present one $1 in Iran amounts to about 20,500 rials. During the
last week rise of US dollar towards rial was 15 per cent and during the
month - over 50 per cent. Project of power station, for example, was
expected to take 5 years and one has only to guess what will happen to
the Iranian economy during five years. The same doubts arise in regard
to construction of oil pipeline from Iran to Armenia. New oil products,
diesel fuel and gasoline, should have been delivered via new pipeline.
US sanctions may infringe investment worth over $20 million as
mentioned in the document's text, "directly aimed at strengthening
Iran's opportunities to master its own oil resources", as well
as cooperation with such financial institutions of Iran, as the
Central Bank. And none of the U.S. officials explained whether new
Iranian-Armenia oil pipeline would fall under the sanctions.
Time will show where Armenia will come, clinging to friendship with
Tehran only because Yerevan cannot establish good neighborly relations
with Azerbaijan and Turkey. However time has already showed that
one of the poorest post-Soviet republics cannot boast successes in
economy and depends on welfare of its diaspora and neighboring Iran.
From: A. Papazian
Trend
Feb 1 2012
Azerbaijan
1 February 2012, 09:25 (GMT+04:00) Trend European news service
commentator Elmira Tariverdiyeva
Rising tension over Iran, new sanctions and oil embargo do not keep
Yerevan from close cooperation with Tehran. It seemed that Armenia
receiving from the U.S. dozens of millions of dollars as financial
assistance should have joined the Western embargo. However though
Armenia has always stressed high level of relations with the West
Yerevan has no other way out and cannot afford to stop supporting Iran.
Because of the territorial claims to all around it Armenia has close
borders with 2 of its 4 neighbors - Azerbaijan and Turkey. If there is
a threat of closure of borders with Iran as well (knowing tough nature
of Iranian leaders, there is no doubt they will do that in case Yerevan
stops fully supporting Tehran), Armenia will sign death penalty for
itself. Poor Armenia which doesn't have own reserves of hydrocarbons,
will not be able to survive under blockade conditions from the
neighbors and the single access to the external world through Georgia.
However today when Western countries do their best to stop Iranian
nuclear program, close cooperation of Armenia and Iran is impossible
not to damage international image of Yerevan. The West understands
that establishing more and more closer relations with Armenia Iran
pursues not so much economical as geopolitical goals, planning in
case of danger secure its rear as represented by Armenia. But does
the West need such Iranian 'rear' in the South Caucasus and won't
the U.S and the EU stop financial assistance to Yerevan in case such
situation emerges? Even if the West turns a blind eye to hopeless
friendship between Yerevan and Iran, issue of suitability of relations'
development remains open.
Iran which ranks fourth in terms of oil reserves and second in the
list of leading natural gas producers suffers from consequences of
Western sanctions much more than officially recognizes it.
Iranian Deputy Oil Minister Ahmad Qalebani took quite surprise step
revealing information on impact of sanctions in his article published
by the Iranian Student's News Agency (ISNA). According to the agency,
the deputy minister said production of crude oil in Iran in 2011
decreased compared to 2010. He said the decrease was caused by lack
of investment in development of oil fields.
In 2010 Iran produced on average about 4 million barrels of oil per
day and 3.5 million barrels in 2011.
The EU sanctions envisaging ban on purchase of oil, freezing of the
European assets of the Iranian Central Bank, as well as export of
equipment and technologies for the Iranian petrochemical industry
threatens Iran with serious economic problems.
Amidst this fate of Armenia which pins its hopes on joint with Iran
projects is seen very regrettable. There were a lot of cooperation
plans. For example, first of all a question arises about projects
of construction of the third power transmission lines from Iran to
Armenia with a capacity of 800-900 MW worth $110 million, construction
of the largest in the South Caucasus hydro power plant at Aras river
worth $500 million.
Construction which should begin in 2012 will be financed by Iranian
companies. However, taking into consideration inflation rate and fall
of the Iranian rial the question arises whether these projects will be
completed. Iranian rial fell by 10 per cent during the trade session
on Jan.23 after it became known that the EU introduced economical
sanctions against the Iranian Republic.
At present one $1 in Iran amounts to about 20,500 rials. During the
last week rise of US dollar towards rial was 15 per cent and during the
month - over 50 per cent. Project of power station, for example, was
expected to take 5 years and one has only to guess what will happen to
the Iranian economy during five years. The same doubts arise in regard
to construction of oil pipeline from Iran to Armenia. New oil products,
diesel fuel and gasoline, should have been delivered via new pipeline.
US sanctions may infringe investment worth over $20 million as
mentioned in the document's text, "directly aimed at strengthening
Iran's opportunities to master its own oil resources", as well
as cooperation with such financial institutions of Iran, as the
Central Bank. And none of the U.S. officials explained whether new
Iranian-Armenia oil pipeline would fall under the sanctions.
Time will show where Armenia will come, clinging to friendship with
Tehran only because Yerevan cannot establish good neighborly relations
with Azerbaijan and Turkey. However time has already showed that
one of the poorest post-Soviet republics cannot boast successes in
economy and depends on welfare of its diaspora and neighboring Iran.
From: A. Papazian