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BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE: THE ARMENIANS IN SYRIA
by Nanore Barsoumian
http://www.armenianweekly.com/2012/02/16/17959/
February 16, 2012
ALEPPO, Syria (A.W.)-Two suicide car bombs targeting Syrian regional
military and security headquarters shook Aleppo on Feb. 10, claiming
28 victims, among them army conscript Viken Hairabedian. The explosion
was one of the worst instances of violence to hit the country since
the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al Assad began in March
2011. Hairabedian's death shocked the Syrian-Armenian community,
which has thus far maintained an official line of neutrality, although
unofficially many support the Assad government. As the most recent
attack demonstrated, violence is moving closer to major cities like
Aleppo and Damascus where thousands of Armenians call home.
Viken Hairabedian's funeral in Aleppo The Armenian Weekly this week
reached out to Syrian-Armenians to shed light on the challenges facing
Syrian Christians, in general, and Armenians, specifically.
***
Syrian-Armenians want to be optimistic about the community's future.
"We always hear the sound of explosions and tank shells, but we are
safe-at least for now," said one activist, who spoke with the Weekly
on condition of anonymity.
The Armenian community-and, in general, the Syrian Christian community
that makes up roughly 8-10 percent of the population-is weary of the
uncertain future. "They are facing a new phase. Armenians, like all
minorities in the country, are vulnerable and fear a collapse of the
security structures in Syria," Nora Arissian, a historian and lecturer
at Damascus University, told the Weekly.
Fr. Karekin Bedourian, who traveled to Syria in November 2011,
observed how lives had been put on hold and a general atmosphere of
fear dominated every activity. "We could not travel from city to city
without concern for our safety. The rebels were everywhere. They were
even persecuting those who were not joining them and participating
in the protests," he said.
"In the past, we used to travel at night throughout the country without
any fear, even in cities considered fanatically Islamic. Now, people
are afraid to come out in their own cities," he added.
Originally from Aleppo, Fr. Bedourian recently moved to North Andover,
Mass., where he is the pastor of St. Gregory Armenian Church.
The insecurity Bedourian describes hit closer to home for Armenians
about a week before Hairabedian's death, when another young Armenian
man, Kevork Chubukchian, was abducted in Aleppo. His kidnappers have
demanded a large sum of money for his release.
Chubukchian "was targeted perhaps not for his identity, but most
likely for his wealth," said a Syrian Armenian from Aleppo (hereafter
referred to as T.N.). The blame cannot rest squarely on the shoulders
of the opposition, he explained, as the Syrian government is ultimately
responsible for the security in the country. "The government is not
only failing to do its job, but it is also killing civilians," he
said, and accused authorities of freeing criminals under the guise of
"general amnesty for political prisoners," while, in reality, most
political prisoners remain behind bars.
"The regime thinks that when the level of fear rises, the demand for
security will overshadow the demand for freedom," T.N. said.
Fr. Bedourian, however, lays the blame squarely on the shoulders
of the opposition. The rebels do not comprehend the true meaning of
freedom and patriotism, he said, and instead choose to act as pawns
in the hands of foreign governments, and take arms against their own.
A neutral course
Despite high tensions and increasing violence, the Syrian-Armenian
community strives to navigate a neutral course. It has refrained from
taking an official and public position, although members continuously
voice their willingness to stand by the government-regardless of who
holds power-for the sake of peace and stability, said T.N.
Historian Ara Sanjian believes there is nothing the Syrian Armenians
can do in this internal conflict. "They only need to save their
heads, and hope that the lightning won't strike them too hard,"
he told the Weekly.
"The community does not have faith in the alternative, and thus it is
attached to this regime-especially because they have the example of
Iraq right in front of their eyes. Saddam was a ruthless dictator,
but he kept certain elements-especially religious extremist-in his
country in check. Now, they've been let loose, and the violence is
widespread," said Sanjian, adding that as a result, half of Iraq's
Christian population has fled and will most likely never return. The
Americans did not anticipate some of the consequences when they decided
to invade the country in 2003, he said. "Now there is an attempt to
establish some sort of American-style freedom... but in the process
a centuries-old Christian culture in the country is being erased."
What happened to Iraq's Christians is in Assad's favor, Sanjian
explained, because Syrians see what happened post-Saddam. "They prefer
to put up with the current regime and enjoy social freedoms, rather
than turn into another Iraq. Those freedoms may disappear tomorrow
if the Muslim Brotherhood or other hard-line Sunni Muslim groups come
to power."
In fact, according to T.N., some Syrian Armenians have vocalized
their support for Assad by taking to the streets in pro-government
rallies, while a few are working for the Syrian intelligence service,
reporting on the activities of fellow Armenians.
Members of the Syrian-Armenian community would face a heavy-handed
response if they were to veer off course, and voice support for the
opposition: Dissenters would be labeled "traitors" and fall victim to a
"witch hunt," he said.
T.N. believes the path of neutrality is the wisest choice. "Any wrong
step could cost innocent lives now or in the future. We must have the
Lebanese-Armenian community as an example during that country's 15
years of civil war. If you can stay neutral, that is the best option.
If you can't, try to put your eggs in more than one basket."
Yet, some Armenians in the community have joined the opposition. A
Syrian Armenian activist from Raqqa, 27-year-old Jimmy Shahinian,
was imprisoned by authorities after he was accused of being part of
the opposition. Shahinian was freed on Dec. 19.
The question of how much support the opposition enjoys is a contentious
one among the Syrian-Armenians interviewed for this piece, as many
believe the majority of Syrians are too fearful to voice their
position.
While T.N. asserts the rebels enjoy the sympathy and support of
broad segments of the public, another activist, who wished to remain
anonymous, said the real numbers of opposition supporters are unknown,
since many avoid speaking out. "Perhaps 20 percent of Syrians are
openly opposed to the system," she said. "An equal proportion are
supporters of the regime, and the rest of us are afraid to express
our views."
"You should know that the website of the Armenian Weekly will be closed
in Syria if you write anything against the system or the Mukhabarat
[the Syrian intelligence service] in your article," she added.
Revolution or reform
Arissian, who is a member of the Arab Writers' Union, thinks the
uprisings stemmed from corruption and economic hardships affecting a
segment of Syrian society. Assad responded to the initial discontent
by signing new laws and assembling a committee tasked with rewriting
the Syrian Constitution. "These reforms would transfer Syria into a
multi-party political system," she said.
Unlike Arissian, Sanjian is skeptical about any real reform taking
root in Syria. Although he believes that Assad may be more generous
in guaranteeing social freedoms for the country's inhabitants than a
successor regime-likely to be dominated by hard-line Sunni Islamists-he
is unhappy with the way the issue of reform has been tackled by the
government so far.
The Syrian government and its security agencies have long infiltrated
every aspect of Syrian society. Since the uprisings began, the
government has been on the offensive, accusing rebels of being foreign
agents. "I still don't have much faith in the proposed reforms because
there have not been many practical steps, or even a widely publicized
national debate on the matter," Sanjian said.
For T.N., what is happening is no less than a full-blown revolution,
and it is a breakthrough for a public used to the watchful eye of the
secret intelligence services. "It broke the wall of fear and silence,
and people started to talk about taboos," he said.
Foreign intervention
Regardless of their position, most Syrian-Armenians seem apprehensive
of foreign intervention, believing that Syrians' interests do not
factor prominently in the calculations of foreign governments.
Specifically, Turkey's role in supporting the opposition is a cause
for concern for many Syrian-Armenians. "Turkey is creating problems,"
said Fr. Bedourian, adding that he distrusts the Turkish position and
believes there is an element of "evil" in Turkey's policies towards
Syria. During his visit to the country in November, Fr. Bedourian
frequently heard news and anecdotes about Syrian citizens who
trained in Turkey for months before returning to Syria and joining
the opposition. Some of those were apprehended by Syrian authorities,
he said.
Syrian opposition members have formed a semi-official government in
exile, the Syrian National Council (SNC), headquartered in Istanbul.
The SNC is supported by the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, as well as
other dissident groups and individuals.
"There was some talk that when [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei]
Lavrov visited Syria a few days ago, the Syrians sent back with him
to Turkey over 40 Turkish operatives they had arrested in recent weeks.
If this is true, what is also significant is that the Syrian government
did not make much fuss about it," said Sanjian. Lavrov's visit to
Syria on Feb. 7 came days after Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution
supporting an Arab plan to urge Assad to step down.
According to Sanjian, Turkey, having gained confidence from its
significant economic growth in recent years, is trying to find a shoe
that fits. "Turkey is acting like a fresh college graduate without
a job, sending resumes everywhere. We don't know who will ultimately
accept her for a full-time job, which will determine Turkey's future
course in international affairs. Her resume has not gotten so far a
response from the Europeans, and that is why she is also knocking at
other doors," he said.
Arissian, too, is skeptical of foreign intervention, which she
considers driven by narrow interests. Turkey is merely using the
unrest in Syria to advance its influence in the region, she said.
Fr. Bedourian thinks "outside intervention led Syria to this
unfortunate situation. Here, in the U.S., the concept [of freedom]
is different and they want to see the same type of freedom in Syria,
which I think is currently impossible [to achieve]."
"I agree that Syria needs a lot of changes and reforms...but not
this way," he added. "Every country needs reforms, changes, and
improvements-even first-world countries-but no one has the right to
sow the seeds of hatred and destruction in the country where they
live and work. The world must leave Syria and its people alone to
solve their own problems."
According to Sanjian, the U.S. is pursuing its own, as well as
Israel's, interests in the region. "There's the issue of Israel
finally relaxing; for that to happen, Iran must weaken, Hezbollah must
weaken. These things are more important to the U.S., and if they can
evoke the cause of democracy in the process, that's a bonus for them
in public diplomacy. The West, they say, wants democracy. Well, if
that is its major objective, why don't they want the same in Bahrain?"
"The majority of the population in Bahrain is Shiite, hence believed
to be close to Iran. The Bahraini king, who is Sunni, crushed the
rebellion with direct Saudi assistance. In Syria, the situation is the
reverse: The minority Alawi community dominates the country's politics
and has been close to Iran. Most of the regime's opponents come from
the majority Sunni community in the country," Sanjian explained.
Muslim Brotherhood: a threat?
Many observers fear that if the Assad government falls, its replacement
will be much more authoritarian. "Many voices warn that the Arab
Spring will lead to an Islamic winter," said Arissian.
According to Sanjian, the Muslim Brotherhood is the only organized
opposition in Syria. "If this regime falls, and Syria remains intact,
it is the most likely force that will gain control, similar to what
happened in Egypt," he said. "The rest of the opposition leaders
who are sitting in France and Istanbul say a lot of things that are
palatable for Western media, but on the ground, I don't think they hold
any real power, or that they can score substantial gains during any
hypothetical post-Assad elections. We saw an example of that in Egypt."
The electability of the Muslim Brotherhood lies in the fact that the
majority of the population has little education and would be moved
by religious rhetoric, argued Sanjian, who takes the possibility of a
Sunni Islamic belt forming in the Middle East seriously. "In Tunisia
the Sunni Islamists are already in power. Libya will likely fall
to them as well. The Muslim Brotherhood is now the largest party in
Egypt. Hamas in Palestine is a local version of the Muslim Brotherhood;
Syria-and, and if it falls, then the Jordanian Parliament, too-will
probably be taken over by the local Brotherhood branch. And finally,
there's Turkey, where the ruling party is another version of the
Muslim Brotherhood," he said.
But there is no guarantee that these forces will cooperate after
gaining power in their respective countries, he said, and it is
probable that they may form rivalries. "For instance, there will
possibly be a struggle to decide which foreign capital will control
any post-Assad Syrian government. Will it be under Ankara's thumb?
Riyadh's? Or Cairo's?"
More than posing a threat to Christians, there is a greater chance of
the Muslim Brotherhood repressing Syria's Alawis, whom they consider
heretics. If the central power structure collapses, there is even a
chance of the Alawis, Druzes, and Kurds seeking control over certain
regions, according to Sanjian.
T.N., however, argues that it is unlikely that fundamental Islamists
will come to power, or suppress minorities. Armenians, he said,
believe that the only alternative to the Assad regime is fundamental
Islam, and that is false. "Even if Islamists win, the possibility
of targeting minorities and Armenians is highly exaggerated by the
current regime, to portray themselves as the only possible option
for minorities. The only fear might be the transitional period from
collapse to rebuilding. If the transition is accompanied with chaos,
anything might happen. If the transition goes smoother and easier,
it won't be that dangerous."
Fr. Bedourian maintains the threat against Christian minorities is
real-and already palpable. "Looking at the situation in Egypt and
especially [as it relates] to the Christians in Egypt, there is a
serious fear in Syria for the Christians and minority groups," he said.
Armenians in Syria, past and present
Between 60,000-70,000 Armenians call Syria home, constituting less
than 0.5 percent of the country's total population. More than half
of them live in Aleppo, with the other half scattered in such cities
as Latakia, Homs, Kamishli, Hasake, Yakoubiye, Raqqa, Kessab, and,
of course, the capital Damascus.
The community is not a politically active one-not from the lack of
want, but because they are not given the opportunity, said Sanjian.
Their position was worse before the current president's father, Hafez
al Assad, came to power. For instance, in the early 1950's, Armenian
schools, along with other foreign institutions, were closed for the
purpose of "Arabization" and to rid the country of alleged foreign
influence. Lengthy negotiations eventually secured their reopening.
In 1967, after the Arabs lost the war to Israel, Armenian schools were
once again threatened with permanent closure. Again, an arrangement
was made: Armenian was to be taught only as a language of religious
ritual, as a tool to understand the liturgy and teachings of the
Armenian Apostolic, Catholic, and Evangelical churches, explained
Sanjian. Armenian classes, however, would encompass other topics
as well, from history to literature. It is a system, said Sanjian,
where authorities know of what is being taught, but they continue to
turn a blind eye because they know that the maintenance of Armenian
ethnic identity poses no threat to Syria.
Over the past 10-20 years, the number of students in Armenian schools
has remained high, now even surpassing the number in Lebanese-Armenian
schools, and Armenian-language textbooks have been produced in Aleppo
at an impressive rate.
Arissian pointed out that during the presidency of Hafez Assad,
and later Bashar Assad, Armenians held to the right to teach their
language in their schools, and to hold Mass in their churches.
"Armenians in Syria are full citizens who enjoy equal rights," she
said. "They never faced any problems on the grounds of religious
discrimination in Syria."
Arissian also noted that Syria and Armenia enjoy close relations,
although she acknowledged that cozy relations between Turkey and
Syria over the last decade affected the media's handling of topics
relating to Armenians.
Armenians are keeping their options open, including the idea of
moving to Armenia. "It is not a secret that a considerable number
of Syrian-Armenians have applied for Armenian citizenship. But this
doesn't mean that they are ready or willing to immediately go to
Armenia. Despite the escalation of the situation, Armenians in Syria
are standing with the state, with their country Syria," said Arissian.
From: Baghdasarian
by Nanore Barsoumian
http://www.armenianweekly.com/2012/02/16/17959/
February 16, 2012
ALEPPO, Syria (A.W.)-Two suicide car bombs targeting Syrian regional
military and security headquarters shook Aleppo on Feb. 10, claiming
28 victims, among them army conscript Viken Hairabedian. The explosion
was one of the worst instances of violence to hit the country since
the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al Assad began in March
2011. Hairabedian's death shocked the Syrian-Armenian community,
which has thus far maintained an official line of neutrality, although
unofficially many support the Assad government. As the most recent
attack demonstrated, violence is moving closer to major cities like
Aleppo and Damascus where thousands of Armenians call home.
Viken Hairabedian's funeral in Aleppo The Armenian Weekly this week
reached out to Syrian-Armenians to shed light on the challenges facing
Syrian Christians, in general, and Armenians, specifically.
***
Syrian-Armenians want to be optimistic about the community's future.
"We always hear the sound of explosions and tank shells, but we are
safe-at least for now," said one activist, who spoke with the Weekly
on condition of anonymity.
The Armenian community-and, in general, the Syrian Christian community
that makes up roughly 8-10 percent of the population-is weary of the
uncertain future. "They are facing a new phase. Armenians, like all
minorities in the country, are vulnerable and fear a collapse of the
security structures in Syria," Nora Arissian, a historian and lecturer
at Damascus University, told the Weekly.
Fr. Karekin Bedourian, who traveled to Syria in November 2011,
observed how lives had been put on hold and a general atmosphere of
fear dominated every activity. "We could not travel from city to city
without concern for our safety. The rebels were everywhere. They were
even persecuting those who were not joining them and participating
in the protests," he said.
"In the past, we used to travel at night throughout the country without
any fear, even in cities considered fanatically Islamic. Now, people
are afraid to come out in their own cities," he added.
Originally from Aleppo, Fr. Bedourian recently moved to North Andover,
Mass., where he is the pastor of St. Gregory Armenian Church.
The insecurity Bedourian describes hit closer to home for Armenians
about a week before Hairabedian's death, when another young Armenian
man, Kevork Chubukchian, was abducted in Aleppo. His kidnappers have
demanded a large sum of money for his release.
Chubukchian "was targeted perhaps not for his identity, but most
likely for his wealth," said a Syrian Armenian from Aleppo (hereafter
referred to as T.N.). The blame cannot rest squarely on the shoulders
of the opposition, he explained, as the Syrian government is ultimately
responsible for the security in the country. "The government is not
only failing to do its job, but it is also killing civilians," he
said, and accused authorities of freeing criminals under the guise of
"general amnesty for political prisoners," while, in reality, most
political prisoners remain behind bars.
"The regime thinks that when the level of fear rises, the demand for
security will overshadow the demand for freedom," T.N. said.
Fr. Bedourian, however, lays the blame squarely on the shoulders
of the opposition. The rebels do not comprehend the true meaning of
freedom and patriotism, he said, and instead choose to act as pawns
in the hands of foreign governments, and take arms against their own.
A neutral course
Despite high tensions and increasing violence, the Syrian-Armenian
community strives to navigate a neutral course. It has refrained from
taking an official and public position, although members continuously
voice their willingness to stand by the government-regardless of who
holds power-for the sake of peace and stability, said T.N.
Historian Ara Sanjian believes there is nothing the Syrian Armenians
can do in this internal conflict. "They only need to save their
heads, and hope that the lightning won't strike them too hard,"
he told the Weekly.
"The community does not have faith in the alternative, and thus it is
attached to this regime-especially because they have the example of
Iraq right in front of their eyes. Saddam was a ruthless dictator,
but he kept certain elements-especially religious extremist-in his
country in check. Now, they've been let loose, and the violence is
widespread," said Sanjian, adding that as a result, half of Iraq's
Christian population has fled and will most likely never return. The
Americans did not anticipate some of the consequences when they decided
to invade the country in 2003, he said. "Now there is an attempt to
establish some sort of American-style freedom... but in the process
a centuries-old Christian culture in the country is being erased."
What happened to Iraq's Christians is in Assad's favor, Sanjian
explained, because Syrians see what happened post-Saddam. "They prefer
to put up with the current regime and enjoy social freedoms, rather
than turn into another Iraq. Those freedoms may disappear tomorrow
if the Muslim Brotherhood or other hard-line Sunni Muslim groups come
to power."
In fact, according to T.N., some Syrian Armenians have vocalized
their support for Assad by taking to the streets in pro-government
rallies, while a few are working for the Syrian intelligence service,
reporting on the activities of fellow Armenians.
Members of the Syrian-Armenian community would face a heavy-handed
response if they were to veer off course, and voice support for the
opposition: Dissenters would be labeled "traitors" and fall victim to a
"witch hunt," he said.
T.N. believes the path of neutrality is the wisest choice. "Any wrong
step could cost innocent lives now or in the future. We must have the
Lebanese-Armenian community as an example during that country's 15
years of civil war. If you can stay neutral, that is the best option.
If you can't, try to put your eggs in more than one basket."
Yet, some Armenians in the community have joined the opposition. A
Syrian Armenian activist from Raqqa, 27-year-old Jimmy Shahinian,
was imprisoned by authorities after he was accused of being part of
the opposition. Shahinian was freed on Dec. 19.
The question of how much support the opposition enjoys is a contentious
one among the Syrian-Armenians interviewed for this piece, as many
believe the majority of Syrians are too fearful to voice their
position.
While T.N. asserts the rebels enjoy the sympathy and support of
broad segments of the public, another activist, who wished to remain
anonymous, said the real numbers of opposition supporters are unknown,
since many avoid speaking out. "Perhaps 20 percent of Syrians are
openly opposed to the system," she said. "An equal proportion are
supporters of the regime, and the rest of us are afraid to express
our views."
"You should know that the website of the Armenian Weekly will be closed
in Syria if you write anything against the system or the Mukhabarat
[the Syrian intelligence service] in your article," she added.
Revolution or reform
Arissian, who is a member of the Arab Writers' Union, thinks the
uprisings stemmed from corruption and economic hardships affecting a
segment of Syrian society. Assad responded to the initial discontent
by signing new laws and assembling a committee tasked with rewriting
the Syrian Constitution. "These reforms would transfer Syria into a
multi-party political system," she said.
Unlike Arissian, Sanjian is skeptical about any real reform taking
root in Syria. Although he believes that Assad may be more generous
in guaranteeing social freedoms for the country's inhabitants than a
successor regime-likely to be dominated by hard-line Sunni Islamists-he
is unhappy with the way the issue of reform has been tackled by the
government so far.
The Syrian government and its security agencies have long infiltrated
every aspect of Syrian society. Since the uprisings began, the
government has been on the offensive, accusing rebels of being foreign
agents. "I still don't have much faith in the proposed reforms because
there have not been many practical steps, or even a widely publicized
national debate on the matter," Sanjian said.
For T.N., what is happening is no less than a full-blown revolution,
and it is a breakthrough for a public used to the watchful eye of the
secret intelligence services. "It broke the wall of fear and silence,
and people started to talk about taboos," he said.
Foreign intervention
Regardless of their position, most Syrian-Armenians seem apprehensive
of foreign intervention, believing that Syrians' interests do not
factor prominently in the calculations of foreign governments.
Specifically, Turkey's role in supporting the opposition is a cause
for concern for many Syrian-Armenians. "Turkey is creating problems,"
said Fr. Bedourian, adding that he distrusts the Turkish position and
believes there is an element of "evil" in Turkey's policies towards
Syria. During his visit to the country in November, Fr. Bedourian
frequently heard news and anecdotes about Syrian citizens who
trained in Turkey for months before returning to Syria and joining
the opposition. Some of those were apprehended by Syrian authorities,
he said.
Syrian opposition members have formed a semi-official government in
exile, the Syrian National Council (SNC), headquartered in Istanbul.
The SNC is supported by the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, as well as
other dissident groups and individuals.
"There was some talk that when [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei]
Lavrov visited Syria a few days ago, the Syrians sent back with him
to Turkey over 40 Turkish operatives they had arrested in recent weeks.
If this is true, what is also significant is that the Syrian government
did not make much fuss about it," said Sanjian. Lavrov's visit to
Syria on Feb. 7 came days after Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution
supporting an Arab plan to urge Assad to step down.
According to Sanjian, Turkey, having gained confidence from its
significant economic growth in recent years, is trying to find a shoe
that fits. "Turkey is acting like a fresh college graduate without
a job, sending resumes everywhere. We don't know who will ultimately
accept her for a full-time job, which will determine Turkey's future
course in international affairs. Her resume has not gotten so far a
response from the Europeans, and that is why she is also knocking at
other doors," he said.
Arissian, too, is skeptical of foreign intervention, which she
considers driven by narrow interests. Turkey is merely using the
unrest in Syria to advance its influence in the region, she said.
Fr. Bedourian thinks "outside intervention led Syria to this
unfortunate situation. Here, in the U.S., the concept [of freedom]
is different and they want to see the same type of freedom in Syria,
which I think is currently impossible [to achieve]."
"I agree that Syria needs a lot of changes and reforms...but not
this way," he added. "Every country needs reforms, changes, and
improvements-even first-world countries-but no one has the right to
sow the seeds of hatred and destruction in the country where they
live and work. The world must leave Syria and its people alone to
solve their own problems."
According to Sanjian, the U.S. is pursuing its own, as well as
Israel's, interests in the region. "There's the issue of Israel
finally relaxing; for that to happen, Iran must weaken, Hezbollah must
weaken. These things are more important to the U.S., and if they can
evoke the cause of democracy in the process, that's a bonus for them
in public diplomacy. The West, they say, wants democracy. Well, if
that is its major objective, why don't they want the same in Bahrain?"
"The majority of the population in Bahrain is Shiite, hence believed
to be close to Iran. The Bahraini king, who is Sunni, crushed the
rebellion with direct Saudi assistance. In Syria, the situation is the
reverse: The minority Alawi community dominates the country's politics
and has been close to Iran. Most of the regime's opponents come from
the majority Sunni community in the country," Sanjian explained.
Muslim Brotherhood: a threat?
Many observers fear that if the Assad government falls, its replacement
will be much more authoritarian. "Many voices warn that the Arab
Spring will lead to an Islamic winter," said Arissian.
According to Sanjian, the Muslim Brotherhood is the only organized
opposition in Syria. "If this regime falls, and Syria remains intact,
it is the most likely force that will gain control, similar to what
happened in Egypt," he said. "The rest of the opposition leaders
who are sitting in France and Istanbul say a lot of things that are
palatable for Western media, but on the ground, I don't think they hold
any real power, or that they can score substantial gains during any
hypothetical post-Assad elections. We saw an example of that in Egypt."
The electability of the Muslim Brotherhood lies in the fact that the
majority of the population has little education and would be moved
by religious rhetoric, argued Sanjian, who takes the possibility of a
Sunni Islamic belt forming in the Middle East seriously. "In Tunisia
the Sunni Islamists are already in power. Libya will likely fall
to them as well. The Muslim Brotherhood is now the largest party in
Egypt. Hamas in Palestine is a local version of the Muslim Brotherhood;
Syria-and, and if it falls, then the Jordanian Parliament, too-will
probably be taken over by the local Brotherhood branch. And finally,
there's Turkey, where the ruling party is another version of the
Muslim Brotherhood," he said.
But there is no guarantee that these forces will cooperate after
gaining power in their respective countries, he said, and it is
probable that they may form rivalries. "For instance, there will
possibly be a struggle to decide which foreign capital will control
any post-Assad Syrian government. Will it be under Ankara's thumb?
Riyadh's? Or Cairo's?"
More than posing a threat to Christians, there is a greater chance of
the Muslim Brotherhood repressing Syria's Alawis, whom they consider
heretics. If the central power structure collapses, there is even a
chance of the Alawis, Druzes, and Kurds seeking control over certain
regions, according to Sanjian.
T.N., however, argues that it is unlikely that fundamental Islamists
will come to power, or suppress minorities. Armenians, he said,
believe that the only alternative to the Assad regime is fundamental
Islam, and that is false. "Even if Islamists win, the possibility
of targeting minorities and Armenians is highly exaggerated by the
current regime, to portray themselves as the only possible option
for minorities. The only fear might be the transitional period from
collapse to rebuilding. If the transition is accompanied with chaos,
anything might happen. If the transition goes smoother and easier,
it won't be that dangerous."
Fr. Bedourian maintains the threat against Christian minorities is
real-and already palpable. "Looking at the situation in Egypt and
especially [as it relates] to the Christians in Egypt, there is a
serious fear in Syria for the Christians and minority groups," he said.
Armenians in Syria, past and present
Between 60,000-70,000 Armenians call Syria home, constituting less
than 0.5 percent of the country's total population. More than half
of them live in Aleppo, with the other half scattered in such cities
as Latakia, Homs, Kamishli, Hasake, Yakoubiye, Raqqa, Kessab, and,
of course, the capital Damascus.
The community is not a politically active one-not from the lack of
want, but because they are not given the opportunity, said Sanjian.
Their position was worse before the current president's father, Hafez
al Assad, came to power. For instance, in the early 1950's, Armenian
schools, along with other foreign institutions, were closed for the
purpose of "Arabization" and to rid the country of alleged foreign
influence. Lengthy negotiations eventually secured their reopening.
In 1967, after the Arabs lost the war to Israel, Armenian schools were
once again threatened with permanent closure. Again, an arrangement
was made: Armenian was to be taught only as a language of religious
ritual, as a tool to understand the liturgy and teachings of the
Armenian Apostolic, Catholic, and Evangelical churches, explained
Sanjian. Armenian classes, however, would encompass other topics
as well, from history to literature. It is a system, said Sanjian,
where authorities know of what is being taught, but they continue to
turn a blind eye because they know that the maintenance of Armenian
ethnic identity poses no threat to Syria.
Over the past 10-20 years, the number of students in Armenian schools
has remained high, now even surpassing the number in Lebanese-Armenian
schools, and Armenian-language textbooks have been produced in Aleppo
at an impressive rate.
Arissian pointed out that during the presidency of Hafez Assad,
and later Bashar Assad, Armenians held to the right to teach their
language in their schools, and to hold Mass in their churches.
"Armenians in Syria are full citizens who enjoy equal rights," she
said. "They never faced any problems on the grounds of religious
discrimination in Syria."
Arissian also noted that Syria and Armenia enjoy close relations,
although she acknowledged that cozy relations between Turkey and
Syria over the last decade affected the media's handling of topics
relating to Armenians.
Armenians are keeping their options open, including the idea of
moving to Armenia. "It is not a secret that a considerable number
of Syrian-Armenians have applied for Armenian citizenship. But this
doesn't mean that they are ready or willing to immediately go to
Armenia. Despite the escalation of the situation, Armenians in Syria
are standing with the state, with their country Syria," said Arissian.
From: Baghdasarian