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FARHAD MEHTIYEV: "AZERBAIJAN WILL BE SUBJECTED TO A TEST: WHETHER IT IS AS STRONG A POLITICAL PLAYER AS IT CLAIMS TO BE"
Vestnik Kavkaza
Feb 22 2012
Russia
Independent political expert, professor of "The Caucasus" Institute,
Farhad Mehtiyev, spoke to a VK correspondent about the results of
Azerbaijan's political efforts of the year.
- Was there any actual progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
settlement this year?
- There are no actual steps forward. Azerbaijan wanted to negotiate an
actual peace treaty; Armenia, in its turn, accused Baku of abandoning
the existing principles of the conflict settlement. However, Yerevan
tried to negotiate a new treaty - and Baku couldn't agree to it. We are
still in a dead-end - Armenia wouldn't agree for Nagorno-Karabakh's
territorial re-integration into Azerbaijan, no matter how extensive
its autonomy would be, and Azerbaijan would never recognize Karabakh's
independence. So for now an actual peace treaty is impossible
- How would you characterize the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs' efforts?
- Everyone is disappointed in them, because they've put too much
faith in the Minsk Group in the first place. We shouldn't forget that
they are only mediators, they can't impose any treaty on any of the
conflict parties. Azerbaijan wants the mediators to persuade Armenia
that its position contradicts international legal norms. However,
Baku doesn't trust all Minsk Group members to be objective. Baku is
dissatisfied with the Group's efforts, because it wants the co-chairs
to be more strict with Yerevan.
- There are rumors of possible military actions in the conflict zone.
Is this scenario realistic?
- I don't think that large-scale military actions are possible.
Neither Azerbaijan, nor Armenia, nor external powers would like that.
However, shootouts have been happening throughout the year. 15 people
died in just the last month. I think this situation will continue,
but the peace treaty of 1994 won't be officially broken.
- Azerbaijan was visited by a great number of top-ranking political
figures. What visit was the most important one?
- All visits connected to the 'South Stream' or Trans-Caspian pipeline
projects are very important, as Azerbaijan is a major gas and oil
exporter. I can also mark the visits of Catherine Ashton and Eastern
European Presidents. On the contrary, I don't think that Nicolas
Sarkozy's visit was of any real importance, he just couldn't go to
Armenia without visiting Azerbaijan as well.
- Do you think Azerbaijan will join the 'Nabucco' project in 2012?
- Yes, but at the same time Azerbaijan will carry on with the
Trans-Caspian project, as none of these projects alone is able to
export all the gas Azerbaijan plans to export. The project of importing
Turkmen gas via Azerbaijani territory is also very important for
Europe, at least until the regime in Iran changes. I can't understand
why Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan still can't agree on the details of
the project - the US exercises a great deal of pressure in this matter.
- Does the non-permanent membership in the UN Security Council in
the coming year give Azerbaijan any political advantages?
- Azerbaijan will be subjected to a test: whether it is such a strong
political player on the global scale as it claims to be. We will
experience a lot of difficulties due to our neighboring of Iran,
if the situation escalates. In this case we will have to choose
sides, and you know that Russia and Iran are close partners. If
Moscow supports Teheran, Azerbaijan will also have to vote against
anti-Iranian resolutions, which would lead to a deterioration in
our relations with the West. However, the West should understand
that Azerbaijan isn't strong enough to spoil its relations with its
immediate powerful neighbors such as Russia.
- Could Azerbaijan raise the Karabakh issue at future UN Security
Council sessions?
- I don't think that Azerbaijan's membership of the UN Security
Council will have any direct impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
No single state determines the Council's agenda, and its permanent
members have the right of veto. And Russia, France and the US are
already involved in the problem in the framework of the OSCE Minsk
Group, so they might see putting the same problem on the UN's agenda
to be redundant.
By the way, there are 4 UN resolutions on Karabakh, and none of
them recognizes Armenia as the aggressor, so not all of the Security
Council permanent members are favorable to Azerbaijan's point of view.
- Last spring opposition activists tried to organize unsanctioned
rallies in Baku. What is your attitude to these actions?
- Demonstrations were in fashion this spring - Egypt, Tunisia,
Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria were seized by unrest. And Azerbaijani
oppositionists tried to ride this wave. However, they did gain
popular support.
Interview by Ramin Naziev, exclusively to VK .
From: A. Papazian
Vestnik Kavkaza
Feb 22 2012
Russia
Independent political expert, professor of "The Caucasus" Institute,
Farhad Mehtiyev, spoke to a VK correspondent about the results of
Azerbaijan's political efforts of the year.
- Was there any actual progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
settlement this year?
- There are no actual steps forward. Azerbaijan wanted to negotiate an
actual peace treaty; Armenia, in its turn, accused Baku of abandoning
the existing principles of the conflict settlement. However, Yerevan
tried to negotiate a new treaty - and Baku couldn't agree to it. We are
still in a dead-end - Armenia wouldn't agree for Nagorno-Karabakh's
territorial re-integration into Azerbaijan, no matter how extensive
its autonomy would be, and Azerbaijan would never recognize Karabakh's
independence. So for now an actual peace treaty is impossible
- How would you characterize the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs' efforts?
- Everyone is disappointed in them, because they've put too much
faith in the Minsk Group in the first place. We shouldn't forget that
they are only mediators, they can't impose any treaty on any of the
conflict parties. Azerbaijan wants the mediators to persuade Armenia
that its position contradicts international legal norms. However,
Baku doesn't trust all Minsk Group members to be objective. Baku is
dissatisfied with the Group's efforts, because it wants the co-chairs
to be more strict with Yerevan.
- There are rumors of possible military actions in the conflict zone.
Is this scenario realistic?
- I don't think that large-scale military actions are possible.
Neither Azerbaijan, nor Armenia, nor external powers would like that.
However, shootouts have been happening throughout the year. 15 people
died in just the last month. I think this situation will continue,
but the peace treaty of 1994 won't be officially broken.
- Azerbaijan was visited by a great number of top-ranking political
figures. What visit was the most important one?
- All visits connected to the 'South Stream' or Trans-Caspian pipeline
projects are very important, as Azerbaijan is a major gas and oil
exporter. I can also mark the visits of Catherine Ashton and Eastern
European Presidents. On the contrary, I don't think that Nicolas
Sarkozy's visit was of any real importance, he just couldn't go to
Armenia without visiting Azerbaijan as well.
- Do you think Azerbaijan will join the 'Nabucco' project in 2012?
- Yes, but at the same time Azerbaijan will carry on with the
Trans-Caspian project, as none of these projects alone is able to
export all the gas Azerbaijan plans to export. The project of importing
Turkmen gas via Azerbaijani territory is also very important for
Europe, at least until the regime in Iran changes. I can't understand
why Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan still can't agree on the details of
the project - the US exercises a great deal of pressure in this matter.
- Does the non-permanent membership in the UN Security Council in
the coming year give Azerbaijan any political advantages?
- Azerbaijan will be subjected to a test: whether it is such a strong
political player on the global scale as it claims to be. We will
experience a lot of difficulties due to our neighboring of Iran,
if the situation escalates. In this case we will have to choose
sides, and you know that Russia and Iran are close partners. If
Moscow supports Teheran, Azerbaijan will also have to vote against
anti-Iranian resolutions, which would lead to a deterioration in
our relations with the West. However, the West should understand
that Azerbaijan isn't strong enough to spoil its relations with its
immediate powerful neighbors such as Russia.
- Could Azerbaijan raise the Karabakh issue at future UN Security
Council sessions?
- I don't think that Azerbaijan's membership of the UN Security
Council will have any direct impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
No single state determines the Council's agenda, and its permanent
members have the right of veto. And Russia, France and the US are
already involved in the problem in the framework of the OSCE Minsk
Group, so they might see putting the same problem on the UN's agenda
to be redundant.
By the way, there are 4 UN resolutions on Karabakh, and none of
them recognizes Armenia as the aggressor, so not all of the Security
Council permanent members are favorable to Azerbaijan's point of view.
- Last spring opposition activists tried to organize unsanctioned
rallies in Baku. What is your attitude to these actions?
- Demonstrations were in fashion this spring - Egypt, Tunisia,
Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria were seized by unrest. And Azerbaijani
oppositionists tried to ride this wave. However, they did gain
popular support.
Interview by Ramin Naziev, exclusively to VK .
From: A. Papazian