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The Times (London), UK
July 21, 2012 Saturday
Edition 1; National Edition
A nation variously at odds with all of its neighbours
by: Amir Taheri
To outsiders, the Middle East has always been a mystery. General de
Gaulle called it "l'Orient compliqué". No other country illustrates
that complexity more than Syria. It is a jumble of geopolitical,
ethnic and religious fault lines, with long-standing regional
rivalries.
The first fault line is ethnic. Although more than 80 per cent of the
people are Arabs, most of the region's other ethnicities also have a
presence. There are Kurds, Armenians, Turks, Turkmens, Circassians and
Greeks.
Because of borders fixed by colonial powers, large segments of the
Arab population have kith and kin in neighbouring countries. Deir
Az-Zawr tribes stretch into Iraq, while the Shammar have branches in
Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The Hauranis have relatives in
Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. President Assad's Alawite community has
branches in Turkey and Lebanon. The Kurds have ties with those in
Iraq, Armenia and Turkey, and the Druze with Lebanon, Jordan and
Israel.
The next fault line is religious. Again, almost all religions and
sects of the region are present. Sunni Muslims account for 72 per cent
of the population and Christians of a dozen denominations represent 12
per cent. The Druze, the Sabaeans and the Nusairis account for 16 per
cent. Syria is the only Arab country in the Middle East outside Israel
still to have a tiny Jewish community.
As for ideology, the ideas that produced the Muslim Brotherhood were
nurtured in Syria when Rashid Rida and his journal al-Manar (The
Lighthouse) campaigned for a new-style Islamic state more than 100
years ago. It was also in Syria that the Baath (Renaissance) Party,
inspired by European fascism, was formed. Michel Aflaq, its principal
theoretician, was a Syrian Christian.
Pan-Arab unity began in Syria with the 1958 merger with Egypt and the
creation of the United Arab Republic. Syria was also the first to tire
of it and walk out in 1961. Since the 1960s Syria has specialised in
hosting radicals ranging from a dozen Palestinian groups to the
Armenian fascist Dashnak Party. And it was in Syria that pan-Kurdism
found its most radical expression in the PKK, seeking a "proletarian
state" in southeastern Turkey.
Then there is the geographical fault-line. For the virtually
landlocked Iraq and Jordan, Syria is the way to the Mediterranean. In
recent years, Syria has also emerged as Iran's bridgehead to the
Mediterranean with the Iranian navy securing "mooring rights" in
Tartus, where Russia maintains a base.
Because the Euphrates passes through its territory, Syria controls 40
per cent of Iraq's water. Until not long ago, Iraq exported almost a
third of its oil via pipelines in Syria.
Syria has irredentist problems with all its neighbours. It hopes to
regain control of the Golan Heights, seized by Israel in 1967, and
claims ownership of Shabaa, which initially belonged to Lebanon. For
decades Syria tried to annex Lebanon in all but name and maintained
30,000 troops there until 2005.
Successive Syrian rulers managed a balancing act by refusing to join
alliance blocs. Hafez Assad, Bashar's father, became the only Arab
leader to have one-on-one summits with all US presidents from Nixon to
Clinton. Bashar scrapped that policy by drawing too close to Iran and
Russia and helping to undermine pro-West Arab regimes. His survival
would be a victory for Russia and Iran, which would use it to raise
their regional profile. Assad's fall would shift the balance of power
in favour of the West and its regional allies in Egypt, Jordan, Turkey
and Saudi Arabia.
Although the Cold War is supposed to be over, we are witnessing a new
version being fought in Syria. The outcome could be as momentous for
the Middle East as the end of the original Cold War was for Europe.
July 21, 2012 Saturday
Edition 1; National Edition
A nation variously at odds with all of its neighbours
by: Amir Taheri
To outsiders, the Middle East has always been a mystery. General de
Gaulle called it "l'Orient compliqué". No other country illustrates
that complexity more than Syria. It is a jumble of geopolitical,
ethnic and religious fault lines, with long-standing regional
rivalries.
The first fault line is ethnic. Although more than 80 per cent of the
people are Arabs, most of the region's other ethnicities also have a
presence. There are Kurds, Armenians, Turks, Turkmens, Circassians and
Greeks.
Because of borders fixed by colonial powers, large segments of the
Arab population have kith and kin in neighbouring countries. Deir
Az-Zawr tribes stretch into Iraq, while the Shammar have branches in
Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The Hauranis have relatives in
Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. President Assad's Alawite community has
branches in Turkey and Lebanon. The Kurds have ties with those in
Iraq, Armenia and Turkey, and the Druze with Lebanon, Jordan and
Israel.
The next fault line is religious. Again, almost all religions and
sects of the region are present. Sunni Muslims account for 72 per cent
of the population and Christians of a dozen denominations represent 12
per cent. The Druze, the Sabaeans and the Nusairis account for 16 per
cent. Syria is the only Arab country in the Middle East outside Israel
still to have a tiny Jewish community.
As for ideology, the ideas that produced the Muslim Brotherhood were
nurtured in Syria when Rashid Rida and his journal al-Manar (The
Lighthouse) campaigned for a new-style Islamic state more than 100
years ago. It was also in Syria that the Baath (Renaissance) Party,
inspired by European fascism, was formed. Michel Aflaq, its principal
theoretician, was a Syrian Christian.
Pan-Arab unity began in Syria with the 1958 merger with Egypt and the
creation of the United Arab Republic. Syria was also the first to tire
of it and walk out in 1961. Since the 1960s Syria has specialised in
hosting radicals ranging from a dozen Palestinian groups to the
Armenian fascist Dashnak Party. And it was in Syria that pan-Kurdism
found its most radical expression in the PKK, seeking a "proletarian
state" in southeastern Turkey.
Then there is the geographical fault-line. For the virtually
landlocked Iraq and Jordan, Syria is the way to the Mediterranean. In
recent years, Syria has also emerged as Iran's bridgehead to the
Mediterranean with the Iranian navy securing "mooring rights" in
Tartus, where Russia maintains a base.
Because the Euphrates passes through its territory, Syria controls 40
per cent of Iraq's water. Until not long ago, Iraq exported almost a
third of its oil via pipelines in Syria.
Syria has irredentist problems with all its neighbours. It hopes to
regain control of the Golan Heights, seized by Israel in 1967, and
claims ownership of Shabaa, which initially belonged to Lebanon. For
decades Syria tried to annex Lebanon in all but name and maintained
30,000 troops there until 2005.
Successive Syrian rulers managed a balancing act by refusing to join
alliance blocs. Hafez Assad, Bashar's father, became the only Arab
leader to have one-on-one summits with all US presidents from Nixon to
Clinton. Bashar scrapped that policy by drawing too close to Iran and
Russia and helping to undermine pro-West Arab regimes. His survival
would be a victory for Russia and Iran, which would use it to raise
their regional profile. Assad's fall would shift the balance of power
in favour of the West and its regional allies in Egypt, Jordan, Turkey
and Saudi Arabia.
Although the Cold War is supposed to be over, we are witnessing a new
version being fought in Syria. The outcome could be as momentous for
the Middle East as the end of the original Cold War was for Europe.