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PUTIN CAN SHOWCASE HIS STRENGTH AND BECOME STAR OF PEACE IN KARABAKH - MICHAEL KAMBECK
tert.am
24.07.12
Michael Kambeck, European Friends of Armenia (EuFoA) organization
Secretary General, is in Armenia during these days. July 18-21 he
was in Nagorno Karabakh to observe the presidential elections.
Tert.am held an interview with Kambeck, who spoke about the Karabakh
polls, negotiations over the NK conflict settlement as well as
causes of postponement of EU donor conference scheduled to take place
in Armenia.
- Authorities in Nagorno Karabakh, as well as in Armenia, view
democratic elections in NK as a step forward towards NK's international
recognition while EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Catherine
Ashton said recently that presidential elections in NK must not result
in any change in NK's status. How would you comment on this?
- The EU and the OSCE have both no longer 'condemned' the elections,
as they have sometimes done in the past. Everybody today understands
that in order to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict we need more
democracy, not less. Only this will prepare the societies for peace.
The good elections in Karabakh increased the pressure on Azerbaijan
to improve also their democracy and to stop threatening the democratic
breakaway region with war.
- Who else could be involved in Karabakh talks any time in the future
should the conflict not be resolved?
- The problem of solving the conflict is not stuck because of the
mediators or the OSCE Minsk Group format, it is stuck because of the
conflict parties, mainly Azerbaijan. Therefore, no change will make
sense and nobody who really wants to solve the conflict wants to burn
their fingers and get newly involved. But I can imagine that the US or
France may start making new initiatives within the Minsk Group, such
as the series of talks initiated by the Russian President Medvedev.
Maybe, if Russia wants to keep this in its own hands, we will also
see a new initiative by Vladimir Putin. He could use and showcase
his strength and become a star of peace, before the Sochi games.
- What is your vision of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict?
- The Kazan meeting had a very balanced text which was very difficult
for both sides. Any peaceful solution will be very close to that, and
without the last-minute amendments of President Aliyev, the first wave
of IDPs would now move back into Aghdam, while Karabakh would have an
interim status and international security guarantees and peacekeepers,
amongst other measures. If Aliyev really cannot imagine any solution
very close to that compromise, the conflict will follow an irrational
path, including war and bombs on Baku and Yerevan. But I believe that
the oil-rich circles in Baku will pull the break and replace him,
before he becomes even more like Gaddafi or Assad. They will not want
to risk their wealth.
- There have been various speculations on the date of the organization
of the EU-backed donor conference in Armenia. You have declared about
the probability of holding it after presidential elections in Armenia
in 2013. What are the main processes that can change that date?
The date is not so relevant. What use is a conference which is
organized in haste and then will bring a weak result? It is more
important for Armenia that all international partners will have
excellent and credible documents and that they have enough time to
prepare. This is possible until around November, but I think that
most participants will say that this is too close to the Presidential
Elections.
- What significance may a donor conference in Armenia have in addition
to financial assistance?
- It is an international recognition of the maturing state of the
Republic of Armenia. It will also be a signal that this country
is moving dynamically and has a strong will to not only talk but
actually implement.
- Other than logistics, what else should Armenia do to host the
donor conference?
- Above all, there must be no Greek-style dream figures. The EU is now
hyper-allergic to falsified or unrealistic statistics and financial
plans and they will verify this intensively. The better the prepared
documents will be, the faster will be this process of verification
and the higher will be the willingness to donate. The Prime Minster,
as ex-chief of the Central Bank, has a better reputation than his
South-European counterparts and this could help.
tert.am
24.07.12
Michael Kambeck, European Friends of Armenia (EuFoA) organization
Secretary General, is in Armenia during these days. July 18-21 he
was in Nagorno Karabakh to observe the presidential elections.
Tert.am held an interview with Kambeck, who spoke about the Karabakh
polls, negotiations over the NK conflict settlement as well as
causes of postponement of EU donor conference scheduled to take place
in Armenia.
- Authorities in Nagorno Karabakh, as well as in Armenia, view
democratic elections in NK as a step forward towards NK's international
recognition while EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Catherine
Ashton said recently that presidential elections in NK must not result
in any change in NK's status. How would you comment on this?
- The EU and the OSCE have both no longer 'condemned' the elections,
as they have sometimes done in the past. Everybody today understands
that in order to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict we need more
democracy, not less. Only this will prepare the societies for peace.
The good elections in Karabakh increased the pressure on Azerbaijan
to improve also their democracy and to stop threatening the democratic
breakaway region with war.
- Who else could be involved in Karabakh talks any time in the future
should the conflict not be resolved?
- The problem of solving the conflict is not stuck because of the
mediators or the OSCE Minsk Group format, it is stuck because of the
conflict parties, mainly Azerbaijan. Therefore, no change will make
sense and nobody who really wants to solve the conflict wants to burn
their fingers and get newly involved. But I can imagine that the US or
France may start making new initiatives within the Minsk Group, such
as the series of talks initiated by the Russian President Medvedev.
Maybe, if Russia wants to keep this in its own hands, we will also
see a new initiative by Vladimir Putin. He could use and showcase
his strength and become a star of peace, before the Sochi games.
- What is your vision of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict?
- The Kazan meeting had a very balanced text which was very difficult
for both sides. Any peaceful solution will be very close to that, and
without the last-minute amendments of President Aliyev, the first wave
of IDPs would now move back into Aghdam, while Karabakh would have an
interim status and international security guarantees and peacekeepers,
amongst other measures. If Aliyev really cannot imagine any solution
very close to that compromise, the conflict will follow an irrational
path, including war and bombs on Baku and Yerevan. But I believe that
the oil-rich circles in Baku will pull the break and replace him,
before he becomes even more like Gaddafi or Assad. They will not want
to risk their wealth.
- There have been various speculations on the date of the organization
of the EU-backed donor conference in Armenia. You have declared about
the probability of holding it after presidential elections in Armenia
in 2013. What are the main processes that can change that date?
The date is not so relevant. What use is a conference which is
organized in haste and then will bring a weak result? It is more
important for Armenia that all international partners will have
excellent and credible documents and that they have enough time to
prepare. This is possible until around November, but I think that
most participants will say that this is too close to the Presidential
Elections.
- What significance may a donor conference in Armenia have in addition
to financial assistance?
- It is an international recognition of the maturing state of the
Republic of Armenia. It will also be a signal that this country
is moving dynamically and has a strong will to not only talk but
actually implement.
- Other than logistics, what else should Armenia do to host the
donor conference?
- Above all, there must be no Greek-style dream figures. The EU is now
hyper-allergic to falsified or unrealistic statistics and financial
plans and they will verify this intensively. The better the prepared
documents will be, the faster will be this process of verification
and the higher will be the willingness to donate. The Prime Minster,
as ex-chief of the Central Bank, has a better reputation than his
South-European counterparts and this could help.