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SOMEONE WANTS TO DEPLOY TROOPS
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26439.html
Published: 14:44:38 - 05/06/2012
Azerbaijan has decided to shift the escalation from Karabakh to
the border with Armenia, Tavush region, said the foreign minister
of Armenia Edward Nalbandyan yesterday in the press conference with
Hillary Clinton. He did not go into details why it is done though it
is evident that someone wants to involve Armenia into a full-scale war,
or to find an excuse to deploy troops of third forces in Armenia.
Although Armenia does not hide its responsibility for the security
of the people of Karabakh, official Yerevan does not have a defense
agreement with NKR, hence officially Armenia can also refrain from
entering into a war for Karabakh. But when the point is the borders
of Armenia, there is nothing one can do about it.
Who will benefit from Armenia's involvement into a war against
Azerbaijan? Who would like to deploy its troops in Armenia or to
activate the existing ones? The deployment of any troops in Karabakh
is complicated by the fact that it is unrecognized. Meanwhile, Armenia
has defense commitments within the framework of the CSTO and Russia
and escalation on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan may lead to
deployment of the CSTO forces there.
On the other hand, the West would not mind having mobile groups in
Armenia which has a small border with Iran. But the West would hardly
initiate subversive acts just on the eve of its top official's visit
to the region.
Most analysts note that Armenia is gradually facing the West. In any
case, the acting authorities of Armenia do not hide the pro-European
orientation of the country and the desire to have closer ties with
the U.S., so Russia must be worried. And perhaps, it will need
strong arguments to "persuade" the Armenian people to vote against
"pro-Western" Sargsyan and for "its" pro-Russian candidate. The best
way is escalation on the border, which has been used for a number
of times for the improvement of domestic political situations in the
South Caucasian countries.
By the way, this is a good way for the Azerbaijani authorities to
resolve domestic issues, to strengthen legitimacy at home, "mobilize"
the society against the hostile moods of the West and its democratic
opposition.
Most analysts think that the escalation at the Armenian-Azerbaijani
border might be initiated by those who want Armenia to finally
"get angry" and hit Azerbaijan. It is clear that Yerevan, without
100% guarantees, will never take this step, and the analysts think
Armenia could receive such guarantees. That is why escalation is on
the Armenian and not Karabakh border.
There can be many options but one thing is clear -reports from
the Armenian-Azerbaijani border remind war chronicles. People die,
subversive acts are initiated by someone, someone's interests are
concerned, the Armenian leadership should clearly and honestly tell its
society who stands behind these acts and what Armenia is going to do.
From: A. Papazian
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26439.html
Published: 14:44:38 - 05/06/2012
Azerbaijan has decided to shift the escalation from Karabakh to
the border with Armenia, Tavush region, said the foreign minister
of Armenia Edward Nalbandyan yesterday in the press conference with
Hillary Clinton. He did not go into details why it is done though it
is evident that someone wants to involve Armenia into a full-scale war,
or to find an excuse to deploy troops of third forces in Armenia.
Although Armenia does not hide its responsibility for the security
of the people of Karabakh, official Yerevan does not have a defense
agreement with NKR, hence officially Armenia can also refrain from
entering into a war for Karabakh. But when the point is the borders
of Armenia, there is nothing one can do about it.
Who will benefit from Armenia's involvement into a war against
Azerbaijan? Who would like to deploy its troops in Armenia or to
activate the existing ones? The deployment of any troops in Karabakh
is complicated by the fact that it is unrecognized. Meanwhile, Armenia
has defense commitments within the framework of the CSTO and Russia
and escalation on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan may lead to
deployment of the CSTO forces there.
On the other hand, the West would not mind having mobile groups in
Armenia which has a small border with Iran. But the West would hardly
initiate subversive acts just on the eve of its top official's visit
to the region.
Most analysts note that Armenia is gradually facing the West. In any
case, the acting authorities of Armenia do not hide the pro-European
orientation of the country and the desire to have closer ties with
the U.S., so Russia must be worried. And perhaps, it will need
strong arguments to "persuade" the Armenian people to vote against
"pro-Western" Sargsyan and for "its" pro-Russian candidate. The best
way is escalation on the border, which has been used for a number
of times for the improvement of domestic political situations in the
South Caucasian countries.
By the way, this is a good way for the Azerbaijani authorities to
resolve domestic issues, to strengthen legitimacy at home, "mobilize"
the society against the hostile moods of the West and its democratic
opposition.
Most analysts think that the escalation at the Armenian-Azerbaijani
border might be initiated by those who want Armenia to finally
"get angry" and hit Azerbaijan. It is clear that Yerevan, without
100% guarantees, will never take this step, and the analysts think
Armenia could receive such guarantees. That is why escalation is on
the Armenian and not Karabakh border.
There can be many options but one thing is clear -reports from
the Armenian-Azerbaijani border remind war chronicles. People die,
subversive acts are initiated by someone, someone's interests are
concerned, the Armenian leadership should clearly and honestly tell its
society who stands behind these acts and what Armenia is going to do.
From: A. Papazian