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Global Insight
May 4, 2012
Election 2012: Armenian Opposition Pushes for End to Ruling Party's
Power Monopoly
BYLINE: Lilit Gevorgyan
The Armenian opposition parties have united to break the ruling
Republican party's grip on parliament, pledging to turn the
rubber-stamping legislature into a vibrant political forum and
possibly pave the way for a parliamentary democracy.
"The E-Day"
Today (4 May) is the last day before all Armenian parties cease their
almost-month-long election campaign and enter a day of silence
followed by a crucial parliamentary vote on 6 May. Most of the
opposition parties have called the upcoming vote Armenia's last chance
to remedy the dire situation of the ineffective economy and
large-scale emigration that was identified as an alarming development
for the country even by the UN.
The vote is also important as it will be the first nationwide poll
since the election of President Serzh Sargsyan of the Republican Party
in 2008. Then, the legitimacy of Sargsyan was challenged by the
opposition led by Levon Ter-Petrossian, the first president of the
Third Armenian Republic created in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet
Union. The ensuing clashes between opposition protesters and the
police on 1 March 2008 turned deadly and cast a long shadow on
Sargsyan and his coalition government. Hence the upcoming election
will be a test for his legitimacy and popularity ahead of 2013
presidential race.
The upcoming vote is also important as for the first time in 15 years
Armenia is seeing an unprecedented political awakening both across the
nation, most importantly in the rural areas. There has been a very
noticeable improvement in freedom of campaigning through rallies,
television debates, and the use of all types of media by all involved
parties. In a welcome development the public space was not occupied by
the presidential party but was open to the opposition--which did not
shy away from sustained and harsh criticism of the current government.
Meanwhile, the president and his party themselves have taken a more
apologetic stance throughout the campaign and admitted their failings,
including poor economic performance, which is a novelty in the last
decade of Armenia's political life. Both the opposition and the
current members of the two-party coalition government are hoping to
capitalise on this political awakening and also cultivate their
powerbase ahead of the presidential vote in 2013.
Fake Versus Real Opposition
One recurring theme in the election campaign was the accusations often
thrown at each other by various parties of not being genuine
opposition forces but rather fielded by the Republican Party to split
the true opposition vote. The election campaign has also consolidated
into a fewer blocs a number of political parties with often unclear
political agendas for voters. This consolidation has also created
unlikely partnerships united by a desire to see an end to Republican
Party's monopoly.
Prosperous Armenia (BH):Led by millionaire businessman Gagik
Tsarukyan, this party in reality is part of the current government
coalition with the Republican Party. However, in a surprise move, BH
launched a campaign highly critical of the current president. There
are widespread speculations that the party is becoming the main
political force for the previous president Robert Kocharian to bid for
the presidency next year. BH has refuted these claims but the
appearance of Vartan Oskanian, Kocharian's foreign minister as the
second candidate in BH's list of candidates under the proportional
election law, has certainly contributed to these speculations. The
opinion polls conducted by Gallup International reported that 29.9% of
voters support BH compared to 39% for the Republican Party. Many
voters believe that BH is not really a true opposition party.
Armenian National Congress (ANC):This is an umbrella organisation that
unites 18 parties and is headed by Levon Ter-Petrossian. He has led a
long lasting anti -government campaign against President Sargsyan and
his government that he has branded as "gangsters". However, ANC is
likely to gain around 12% of the votes according to the opinion polls.
Many voters believe that Ter-Petrossian is really part of the same
political elite that he installed in the first place and he will not
be able to bring any real changes.
Heritage:Headed by US-born and educated Raffi Hovannisian, it is the
only truly opposition party that has seats in the parliament. This
small party has made an emphasis on political agenda rather than
personalities and if favoured mostly by urban intellectuals. It is
likely to attract 6% of the votes.
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) - Dashnaktsutyun:Over 100
years old, it is widely respected and is seen an independent player
although its credentials have been somewhat tarnished after ARF joined
the ruling coalition in 2008 which it left following disagreements
over Sargsyan's decision to sign the failed Armenian-Turkish protocols
in 2010. This is reflected in the thinning support of 5.3%.
"The Cleanest Election"
Hopes are high that the upcoming vote will be one of the most
transparent in the past 15 years, a pledge also made by President
Sargsyan. The government has invited a number of international
observers to monitor the quality of the vote, including the
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe/Office for
Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR); the
Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe's (PACE),the International
Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), the European Parliament, and
the International Expert Center for Electoral Systems (ICES). In total
54 international and local organisations have fielded thousands of
monitors while Armenia's Human Rights Ombudsman Karen Andreasyan will
be in charge of the so-called "rapid reaction" mobile units that would
respond to any reports of election fraud on 6 May. There are already
first encouraging reaction from OSCE/ODIHR which on 27 April issued a
statement describing a "vibrant" campaign where the contestants were
"generally able to campaign and have been provided with free venues
and poster space". But the report also highlighted that there were
instances of obstructions, including violent scuffles.
In an unprecedented move the opposition parties have also united in a
multi-party anti-fraud headquarters where the participants have signed
a document not to be involved in vote-rigging. However, the ruling
Republican Party has refrained from joining the initiative and has
unveiled its own commission, raising concerns about the credibility of
their pledges to hold an honest vote. Furthermore, the opposition's
own initiative has been undermined after one of its leaders, Tsarukyan
of the Prosperous Armenia party, refused to personally sign the
pledge. This triggered an exit from the pact by the Heritage party led
by Raffi Hovannisian. While many have criticised Heritage's move it
also gained the party credibility. This is because many view
Tsarukyan's tactics of unfurling an expensive charity campaign in the
lead-up to the vote, especially in the regions as a blatant violation
of election campaigning rules. The OSCE/ODIHR report also backed this
view.
Outlook and Implications
If the upcoming election is successful, Armenia could serve as a model
for political changes in South Caucasus, an opinion also shared by the
US ambassador to Yerevan John Heffern. Given its serious security
problems with Azerbaijan and the threat of a new war, the Armenian
public is reluctant to chose a revolutionary path of change of
government. This was one of the reasons behind the absence of a
"coloured revolution" in the country. But the political opposition is
aware that the current state of affairs has to change to prevent the
mass emigration and remedy the economic situation but also to keep up
the morale in the country in the face of serious security threat from
Azerbaijan.
In some ways these security concerns have made the current government
realise that to garner international support it has to be a
legitimately elected government in the first place. These security
concerns have also forced all the players to agree to a peaceful
change which will have to come through sometimes unwanted compromises
between unlikely bedfellows such as BH and former foreign minister
Vartan Oskanian and the ANC. However, this appears to be the best way
to begin step-by-step changes, where the first step would be
dismantling the monopoly of power of the top party and creating an
active parliament.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
May 4, 2012
Election 2012: Armenian Opposition Pushes for End to Ruling Party's
Power Monopoly
BYLINE: Lilit Gevorgyan
The Armenian opposition parties have united to break the ruling
Republican party's grip on parliament, pledging to turn the
rubber-stamping legislature into a vibrant political forum and
possibly pave the way for a parliamentary democracy.
"The E-Day"
Today (4 May) is the last day before all Armenian parties cease their
almost-month-long election campaign and enter a day of silence
followed by a crucial parliamentary vote on 6 May. Most of the
opposition parties have called the upcoming vote Armenia's last chance
to remedy the dire situation of the ineffective economy and
large-scale emigration that was identified as an alarming development
for the country even by the UN.
The vote is also important as it will be the first nationwide poll
since the election of President Serzh Sargsyan of the Republican Party
in 2008. Then, the legitimacy of Sargsyan was challenged by the
opposition led by Levon Ter-Petrossian, the first president of the
Third Armenian Republic created in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet
Union. The ensuing clashes between opposition protesters and the
police on 1 March 2008 turned deadly and cast a long shadow on
Sargsyan and his coalition government. Hence the upcoming election
will be a test for his legitimacy and popularity ahead of 2013
presidential race.
The upcoming vote is also important as for the first time in 15 years
Armenia is seeing an unprecedented political awakening both across the
nation, most importantly in the rural areas. There has been a very
noticeable improvement in freedom of campaigning through rallies,
television debates, and the use of all types of media by all involved
parties. In a welcome development the public space was not occupied by
the presidential party but was open to the opposition--which did not
shy away from sustained and harsh criticism of the current government.
Meanwhile, the president and his party themselves have taken a more
apologetic stance throughout the campaign and admitted their failings,
including poor economic performance, which is a novelty in the last
decade of Armenia's political life. Both the opposition and the
current members of the two-party coalition government are hoping to
capitalise on this political awakening and also cultivate their
powerbase ahead of the presidential vote in 2013.
Fake Versus Real Opposition
One recurring theme in the election campaign was the accusations often
thrown at each other by various parties of not being genuine
opposition forces but rather fielded by the Republican Party to split
the true opposition vote. The election campaign has also consolidated
into a fewer blocs a number of political parties with often unclear
political agendas for voters. This consolidation has also created
unlikely partnerships united by a desire to see an end to Republican
Party's monopoly.
Prosperous Armenia (BH):Led by millionaire businessman Gagik
Tsarukyan, this party in reality is part of the current government
coalition with the Republican Party. However, in a surprise move, BH
launched a campaign highly critical of the current president. There
are widespread speculations that the party is becoming the main
political force for the previous president Robert Kocharian to bid for
the presidency next year. BH has refuted these claims but the
appearance of Vartan Oskanian, Kocharian's foreign minister as the
second candidate in BH's list of candidates under the proportional
election law, has certainly contributed to these speculations. The
opinion polls conducted by Gallup International reported that 29.9% of
voters support BH compared to 39% for the Republican Party. Many
voters believe that BH is not really a true opposition party.
Armenian National Congress (ANC):This is an umbrella organisation that
unites 18 parties and is headed by Levon Ter-Petrossian. He has led a
long lasting anti -government campaign against President Sargsyan and
his government that he has branded as "gangsters". However, ANC is
likely to gain around 12% of the votes according to the opinion polls.
Many voters believe that Ter-Petrossian is really part of the same
political elite that he installed in the first place and he will not
be able to bring any real changes.
Heritage:Headed by US-born and educated Raffi Hovannisian, it is the
only truly opposition party that has seats in the parliament. This
small party has made an emphasis on political agenda rather than
personalities and if favoured mostly by urban intellectuals. It is
likely to attract 6% of the votes.
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) - Dashnaktsutyun:Over 100
years old, it is widely respected and is seen an independent player
although its credentials have been somewhat tarnished after ARF joined
the ruling coalition in 2008 which it left following disagreements
over Sargsyan's decision to sign the failed Armenian-Turkish protocols
in 2010. This is reflected in the thinning support of 5.3%.
"The Cleanest Election"
Hopes are high that the upcoming vote will be one of the most
transparent in the past 15 years, a pledge also made by President
Sargsyan. The government has invited a number of international
observers to monitor the quality of the vote, including the
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe/Office for
Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR); the
Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe's (PACE),the International
Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), the European Parliament, and
the International Expert Center for Electoral Systems (ICES). In total
54 international and local organisations have fielded thousands of
monitors while Armenia's Human Rights Ombudsman Karen Andreasyan will
be in charge of the so-called "rapid reaction" mobile units that would
respond to any reports of election fraud on 6 May. There are already
first encouraging reaction from OSCE/ODIHR which on 27 April issued a
statement describing a "vibrant" campaign where the contestants were
"generally able to campaign and have been provided with free venues
and poster space". But the report also highlighted that there were
instances of obstructions, including violent scuffles.
In an unprecedented move the opposition parties have also united in a
multi-party anti-fraud headquarters where the participants have signed
a document not to be involved in vote-rigging. However, the ruling
Republican Party has refrained from joining the initiative and has
unveiled its own commission, raising concerns about the credibility of
their pledges to hold an honest vote. Furthermore, the opposition's
own initiative has been undermined after one of its leaders, Tsarukyan
of the Prosperous Armenia party, refused to personally sign the
pledge. This triggered an exit from the pact by the Heritage party led
by Raffi Hovannisian. While many have criticised Heritage's move it
also gained the party credibility. This is because many view
Tsarukyan's tactics of unfurling an expensive charity campaign in the
lead-up to the vote, especially in the regions as a blatant violation
of election campaigning rules. The OSCE/ODIHR report also backed this
view.
Outlook and Implications
If the upcoming election is successful, Armenia could serve as a model
for political changes in South Caucasus, an opinion also shared by the
US ambassador to Yerevan John Heffern. Given its serious security
problems with Azerbaijan and the threat of a new war, the Armenian
public is reluctant to chose a revolutionary path of change of
government. This was one of the reasons behind the absence of a
"coloured revolution" in the country. But the political opposition is
aware that the current state of affairs has to change to prevent the
mass emigration and remedy the economic situation but also to keep up
the morale in the country in the face of serious security threat from
Azerbaijan.
In some ways these security concerns have made the current government
realise that to garner international support it has to be a
legitimately elected government in the first place. These security
concerns have also forced all the players to agree to a peaceful
change which will have to come through sometimes unwanted compromises
between unlikely bedfellows such as BH and former foreign minister
Vartan Oskanian and the ANC. However, this appears to be the best way
to begin step-by-step changes, where the first step would be
dismantling the monopoly of power of the top party and creating an
active parliament.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress