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  • Armenian General Threatens Azeri Economic Facilities

    ARMENIAN GENERAL THREATENS AZERI ECONOMIC FACILITIES

    Eurasia Daily Monitor - Jamestown Foundation
    Nov 8 2012

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 9 Issue: 205
    November 8, 2012 05:12 PM Age: 1 days

    By: Fuad Huseinzadeh

    Armenian S-300 missile battery

    In a little-noticed development last month, a senior Armenian military
    official has announced Armenia's willingness to use military force
    against Azeri economic facilities in the event of an outbreak of war
    in Karabakh. On October 15, Major General Artak Davtyan, Chief of the
    Operative Department, Armenian Armed Forces, made an oblique reference
    to Armenia's S-300s which it recently acquired from Russia as a measure
    of retaliation against Azerbaijan. During a press conference, General
    Davtyan told journalists on October 15 that the Armenian Armed Forces
    consider long-range missiles a priority and, if necessary, are ready
    to attack the enemy's economic facilities, particularly gas and oil
    pipelines (http://www.tert.am/en/news/2012/10/15/artak-davtyan/).

    Armenia first acknowledged receipt of the S-300s in December 2010, and
    a few days later showcased a video of the missiles being tested (see
    EDM, January 11, 2011). The surface-to-air missiles went on display to
    the public in January 2011 when they were featured during a military
    parade (http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/24335604.html).

    Immediately following General Davtyan's comments, Azerbaijani military
    officials in Baku responded, noting the economic impact Armenia's
    actions would have, as well as Azerbaijan's ability to protect its
    threatened assets. According to Colonel Eldar Sabiroglu, a spokesman
    for Azerbaijan's defense ministry, "Firstly, Azerbaijan's oil and gas
    fields are being used jointly with the biggest states and companies.

    Secondly, Azerbaijan is able to protect its oil and gas fields, all
    measures needed for missile defense are in the focus of attention. The
    enemy should understand that the new missile systems of Azerbaijani
    Armed Forces can strike any strategic facility of Armenia"
    (http://news.az/articles/politics/70257).

    At the same time that the statement by the Armenian military appeared,
    information was released by Yerevan announcing that Armenia had
    actually placed Russian-made S-300PS surface-to-air missiles
    within seven kilometers of the border with Karabakh. Information
    released by IMINT & Analysis, a US-based open-source military
    analysis group, stated that according to Google Earth satellite
    imagery of air defense systems, the deployment of the highly mobile
    S-300PS complexes would allow Armenia, with Russian assistance,
    to cover the entire air space over the occupied territories
    of Azerbaijan. "[T]he placement of Armenian S-300PS batteries
    adjacent to Karabakh, represent significant occurrences potentially
    impacting various future scenarios in the region," the source noted
    (http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/127592/).

    More importantly, what does this all mean? First of all, the statement
    by General Davtyan is likely the first instance in recent years of a
    senior Armenian military officer quite clearly threatening Azerbaijan.

    At the same time, his statement would also be a direct threat
    against US and European oil investments since Azerbaijan's major oil
    facilities, such as the Sangachal oil terminal and other facilities,
    are jointly operated in cooperation with western oil companies.

    Officials in Baku also did not interpret the statements as solely an
    impulsive statement made by Yerevan, but assumed they were made at the
    likely urging of Moscow. As Azerbaijan's defense ministry spokesman
    Sabiroglu noted, "[Armenia's] strength and sense do not belong
    to itself," which is a diplomatic way of indicating that Yerevan's
    posturing is directly backed and possibly inspired by Russian military
    and political guarantees (http://news.az/articles/politics/70257).

    With the peace process in a virtual deadlock, the recent statements
    by such a senior ranking Armenian defense official and the subsequent
    announcement of the deployment of the S-300s near the Armenian-occupied
    territory of Karabakh stand to further inflame regional tensions. While
    Russian forces based in Armenia have had S-300s in their hands for
    over ten years, the actual transfer of the S-300s to the control
    of Armenian forces is an entirely different matter. Moreover,
    the announcement that they have been deployed near the border with
    Karabakh is a destabilizing move. The highly mobile missile system
    can easily be redeployed, but in the event of an armed conflict,
    its current location would invite a potential retaliatory response
    from Azerbaijan on a target within Armenia proper. Such a response
    is legally vastly different than attacking a mobile battery within
    the disputed Karabakh territory, which is internationally recognized
    to be inside Azerbaijan.

    Finally, these developments are occurring against the backdrop of a
    complete absence of US activity in the South Caucasus as Washington
    has largely deferred its role in the Karabakh peace talks to Moscow.

    With the transfer of S-300s to the control of Armenian forces
    next to Karabakh, and the Russian sale of S-300s to Azerbaijan in
    mid-2011 (Armenianow.com, June 30, 2011), Moscow is now both the lead
    negotiator in the talks over the future of Karabakh and the supplier
    of destabilizing weapons to both Yerevan and Baku. This stands to
    leave Moscow as the sole arbiter of regional stability in the South
    Caucasus, both in the negotiating room and on the battlefield.

    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Bswords%5D=8fd5893941d69d0b e3f378576261ae3e&tx_ttnews%5Bany_of_the_words%5D=A rmenia&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=40080&tx_ttnews%5Bba ckPid%5D=7&cHash=a0e4d8d69aeab988ba314f7ad934c046

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