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ARAM KARAPETYAN: IF PROSPEROUS ARMENIA PARTY SUPPORTS SERZH SARGSYAN'S CANDIDACY DURING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, IT WILL CONSIDERABLY FACILITATE THE ELECTORALFRAUD
by Ashot Safaryan
ArmInfo's Interview with Leader of New Times Party Aram Karapetyan
arminfo
Wednesday, October 17, 11:38
Mr. Karapetyan, what possible scenarios of developments can you
observe in the process around the ex-foreign minister of Armenia
Vartan Oskanian and his Civilitas Foundation?
The situation with Oskanian is dual. On the one hand, Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan has impartially very bad chances for
re-election. Certainly, the experience of the past years demonstrates
that it is not so difficult for the authorities to draw some figures
to rig the elections. Under equal conditions, Sargsyan will be
ousted by any normal candidate. Consequently, it is necessary to
apply some election technologies as well. In this context, Serzh
Sargsyan wants the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) to support him
during the presidential elections. This will give an opportunity to
the authorities to draw profitable figures, which would be more or less
close to the reality. It is very hard to draw these figures without the
PAP's support, as we all see the situation of the country and the low
public confidence as a result of the authorities' policy. In general,
it is not hard to draw figures; it is much harder to be responsible for
the drawn figures, because certain explanations and arguments will be
needed. In the meantime, there is another version of actions against
Oskanian. Serzh Sargsyan wants to make Oskanian a candidate in order
to defeat him. There is nothing substantial in the Oskanian case,
even from the legal point of view, that's all a soap bubble. Serzh
Sargsyan cannot defeat a pro-Russian candidate.
Therefore, the authorities have decided to "apply" to pro-Western
Oskanian.
Do you rule out the probability that Moscow will stake on an
alternative candidate given that Serzh Sargsyan is a pro-Western
candidate?
The thing is that Moscow itself does not know what it wants; the
Kremlin's policy has reached a deadlock. The Putin policy "power
works with power" is obviously not justified, because almost in all
countries of the post-Soviet space the forces coming to power are
mostly pro-Western. In order to make the geopolitical line of the
big states and their impact in certain countries have succession
and consistency, it is necessary to work with all the political
forces in these countries. For a long time Moscow has been working
exclusively with power in the countries where it had its impact, but
these forces could not stay at power forever, and the other forces
coming to replace them headed for Washington and Brussels. Today
Moscow has come across the same problem in Armenia.
If we take a serious view of the situation in the Armenian-Russian
relations, we'll see that there is nothing in this cooperation, except
the military and political component. Certainly, the matter concerns
$3 bln investments in Armenian economy, but we see no real results.
We are pro-Russian in the military and political context, but in
all the other fields we became pro-Western long ago. Armenia even
lacks a pro-Russian party in the tough sense of the word. There are
pragmatists trying to establish good relations with both Moscow and
Brussels. But nobody has an ideological similarity with Moscow. Even
the Prosperous Armenia, which is considered to be the most pro-Russian
party in our understanding, cannot be a pro-Russian party in the
ideological sense. The capitals of our oligarchs are not in Russia.
Moreover, the Russian elite itself has a pro-Western nature. Then
what should we demand from our allies and friends!
Do you share the opinion that the opposition should nominate a single
candidate for president?
The mutual accusations between the opposition forces in Armenia
minimize the probability of nomination of a single candidate at
the presidential elections. Moreover, Armenia needs an alternative
candidate, who is uncompromising and has a very tough position,
but, unfortunately, there are no such people. All are connected by
mutual arrangements and sometimes by dirt. If we watch the ongoing
developments in many countries experiencing large political reshuffles,
including the Arab countries, we can notice that the society wants
to see at power a man, who has never been at power before. People
have got tired of the same persons. Radical changes are needed;
it is necessary to liquidate the system of "elite mutual relations".
The new candidate should have not ties with the
Ter-Petrosyan-Kocharyan-Sargsyan trinity. It is necessary to destroy
this triangle and create new opportunities for new persons, new
political forces, which are capable and, what is most important,
eager to reform this system. I think the authorities will not stay at
power long no matter whether they want it or not, even if they manage
to retain power at the forthcoming presidential elections. Bloodless
changes are one thing, and changes as a result of a rebellion are quite
another thing. Unfortunately, the latter seems more probable to me.
Do you think it is impossible to improve the political and economic
systems in Armenia as a result of activation of Washington and
Brussels?
I do not think that the relations with the EU and the so-called
European integration will contribute to prevention of force majeure
scenarios in Armenia and will change the situation in the bloodless
way. The Armenia-EU relations themselves lead to no qualitative
changes. We do not become European, on the contrary, we undergo
degradation, and the reason is not our rapprochement with Europe but
the fact that our country is undergoing quite different processes,
which cannot be influenced by the European Union now. The ongoing
processes in the country cannot be changed only by the foreign
political factors; internal forces, factors and motives are needed.
What EU are we talking about if the EU itself cannot deal with Greece,
Spain, Italy, Portugal?! The EU has immense problems and has no time
for us. In order to involve Armenia in the EU space, one should build
a relevant world concept in the political, economic and legal aspects.
But nothing of the kind is expected, unfortunately.
by Ashot Safaryan
ArmInfo's Interview with Leader of New Times Party Aram Karapetyan
arminfo
Wednesday, October 17, 11:38
Mr. Karapetyan, what possible scenarios of developments can you
observe in the process around the ex-foreign minister of Armenia
Vartan Oskanian and his Civilitas Foundation?
The situation with Oskanian is dual. On the one hand, Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan has impartially very bad chances for
re-election. Certainly, the experience of the past years demonstrates
that it is not so difficult for the authorities to draw some figures
to rig the elections. Under equal conditions, Sargsyan will be
ousted by any normal candidate. Consequently, it is necessary to
apply some election technologies as well. In this context, Serzh
Sargsyan wants the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) to support him
during the presidential elections. This will give an opportunity to
the authorities to draw profitable figures, which would be more or less
close to the reality. It is very hard to draw these figures without the
PAP's support, as we all see the situation of the country and the low
public confidence as a result of the authorities' policy. In general,
it is not hard to draw figures; it is much harder to be responsible for
the drawn figures, because certain explanations and arguments will be
needed. In the meantime, there is another version of actions against
Oskanian. Serzh Sargsyan wants to make Oskanian a candidate in order
to defeat him. There is nothing substantial in the Oskanian case,
even from the legal point of view, that's all a soap bubble. Serzh
Sargsyan cannot defeat a pro-Russian candidate.
Therefore, the authorities have decided to "apply" to pro-Western
Oskanian.
Do you rule out the probability that Moscow will stake on an
alternative candidate given that Serzh Sargsyan is a pro-Western
candidate?
The thing is that Moscow itself does not know what it wants; the
Kremlin's policy has reached a deadlock. The Putin policy "power
works with power" is obviously not justified, because almost in all
countries of the post-Soviet space the forces coming to power are
mostly pro-Western. In order to make the geopolitical line of the
big states and their impact in certain countries have succession
and consistency, it is necessary to work with all the political
forces in these countries. For a long time Moscow has been working
exclusively with power in the countries where it had its impact, but
these forces could not stay at power forever, and the other forces
coming to replace them headed for Washington and Brussels. Today
Moscow has come across the same problem in Armenia.
If we take a serious view of the situation in the Armenian-Russian
relations, we'll see that there is nothing in this cooperation, except
the military and political component. Certainly, the matter concerns
$3 bln investments in Armenian economy, but we see no real results.
We are pro-Russian in the military and political context, but in
all the other fields we became pro-Western long ago. Armenia even
lacks a pro-Russian party in the tough sense of the word. There are
pragmatists trying to establish good relations with both Moscow and
Brussels. But nobody has an ideological similarity with Moscow. Even
the Prosperous Armenia, which is considered to be the most pro-Russian
party in our understanding, cannot be a pro-Russian party in the
ideological sense. The capitals of our oligarchs are not in Russia.
Moreover, the Russian elite itself has a pro-Western nature. Then
what should we demand from our allies and friends!
Do you share the opinion that the opposition should nominate a single
candidate for president?
The mutual accusations between the opposition forces in Armenia
minimize the probability of nomination of a single candidate at
the presidential elections. Moreover, Armenia needs an alternative
candidate, who is uncompromising and has a very tough position,
but, unfortunately, there are no such people. All are connected by
mutual arrangements and sometimes by dirt. If we watch the ongoing
developments in many countries experiencing large political reshuffles,
including the Arab countries, we can notice that the society wants
to see at power a man, who has never been at power before. People
have got tired of the same persons. Radical changes are needed;
it is necessary to liquidate the system of "elite mutual relations".
The new candidate should have not ties with the
Ter-Petrosyan-Kocharyan-Sargsyan trinity. It is necessary to destroy
this triangle and create new opportunities for new persons, new
political forces, which are capable and, what is most important,
eager to reform this system. I think the authorities will not stay at
power long no matter whether they want it or not, even if they manage
to retain power at the forthcoming presidential elections. Bloodless
changes are one thing, and changes as a result of a rebellion are quite
another thing. Unfortunately, the latter seems more probable to me.
Do you think it is impossible to improve the political and economic
systems in Armenia as a result of activation of Washington and
Brussels?
I do not think that the relations with the EU and the so-called
European integration will contribute to prevention of force majeure
scenarios in Armenia and will change the situation in the bloodless
way. The Armenia-EU relations themselves lead to no qualitative
changes. We do not become European, on the contrary, we undergo
degradation, and the reason is not our rapprochement with Europe but
the fact that our country is undergoing quite different processes,
which cannot be influenced by the European Union now. The ongoing
processes in the country cannot be changed only by the foreign
political factors; internal forces, factors and motives are needed.
What EU are we talking about if the EU itself cannot deal with Greece,
Spain, Italy, Portugal?! The EU has immense problems and has no time
for us. In order to involve Armenia in the EU space, one should build
a relevant world concept in the political, economic and legal aspects.
But nothing of the kind is expected, unfortunately.