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IGOR MURADYAN: THERE ARE A LOT OF POLES IN THE WORLD, BUT THERE IS STILL ONLY ONE WORLD OPERATOR - USA
by David Stepanyan
Arminfo
Monday, October 22, 17:23
ArmInfo's interview with Igor Muradyan, a well-known analyst, one of
the initiators and heads of the Karabakh Movement of 1988
Mr. Muradyan, the latest developments around Syria and Iran, deployment
of Turkish troops near the Syrian border, at first sight, testify
to a sooner large-scale regional war. Do you see such trends in the
geopolitical situation?
The analytical community and the mass media are gradually arriving
at a conclusion that a big regional war is possible. I think special
attention should be given to the threats. After all the numerous talks
on failure of the monopolar world, one can come to the conclusion that
there are really very many poles. And these poles of international and
even regional significance are becoming more and more independent,
having a resource base for that. Yes, there are many poles, but the
United States is still the only world operator.
European Union has apparently given up the idea to have an operating
significance in the world, though it still hopes to become the only
arbitrator, moral and legal authority, etc.
The NATO Summit in Chicago contributed to overcoming of the
discrepancies among the NATO countries, because many of the NATO
members and partners realized that they could not do without the
Alliance.
There is a boom of independence in the world and some countries in the
world have suddenly decided that they are insufficiently independent.
All this are not just irrational ambitions, it is motivated by specific
economic goals.
Are the Arab revolutions among them?
Indeed, but even the Arab Spring was not a global threat. Those
revolutions started when it turned out that radical Islam suffered
fiasco.
The last NATO summit has shown that Turkey is a problem not only
because it seeks wider independence from the United States but also
because of its tensed relations with NATO.
The Turks are laying claims that cannot be ignored.
As a result, the Europeans and the Americans have come to a consensus
that they need a strategy to restrain the Turks and are actively
negotiating this project. Their goal is to subdue Turkey while their
mechanism is to create political, diplomatic, economic, social,
religious and ideological problems for the Turks. Today Turkey is
facing a very interesting situation: almost all of its neighbors,
the Arab, Balkan and Caucasus nations, see it as a potential threat
and have asked the Americans to do something about it.
But there are also Russia and Iran. Past year showed that in case of
necessity Ankara demonstrates rapprochement with Moscow...
The USA has never been concerned over possible alliance between Turkey
and Russia or Turkey and Iran, there are too many discrepancies
between them. The United States has always been concerned over the
Middle East, where the fate of Turkish ambitions and neo-Ottomanism
is decided. Therefore, Americans have made a powerful barrier
of Iraq and Syria, thereby creating an irresistible obstacle for
Turkey's promotion. Actually, over the recent years the USA posed
no obstacles in Turkey's way and offered Ankara to move forward and
enjoy its grandeur. Turkey moved forward and came across everybody's
resistance. This is why it should be taken into account that Turkey
is very much diverted from the Caucasus. It is not the power to act
in two directions adequately. It cannot act even in one direction,
as it cannot cross over Iraq and Syria", he said. In addition,
Americans are creating a home front consisting of Kurds.
Therefore, Turkey is trying to involve NATO in its game in every
possible way, but its attempts are in vain. Turkey will declare no
war against Syria all by itself. It's absolute nonsense. I think that
Ankara does not want to face the prospect of suffering immense losses,
remaining alone, and being excluded from NATO.
At a glance it may seem that it is Turkey that must play the key role
in supporting the Syrian rebels...
In reality Turkey is only instructed to ensure communications, delivery
of arms, and the logistic support for the manpower fighting against
Assad. Turkey cannot enter the territory of Syria, as it is not its
zone. It is the zone of the Western community's interests.
And if Turkey invades Syria all by itself, it will become the key
player in the developments and will dominate in the region, which
runs counter to the policy of restraining Turkey.
A question arises as to what makes Syria so important for the West?
Syria is the key country in the region and the fight for that country
has continued for decades; it has not begun recently. However,
now when a new very powerful project of an independent source of
oil is implemented, that fight has become even more important. The
Caspian source is of local importance, even despite Kazakhstan. The
oil reserves explored in Northern Iraq total 31.5 billion tons, which
is more than the total oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. Nearly 40%-45%
of total Iraqi oil is concentrated in the territory of Northern Iraq
far from the Shiite zone and, consequently, far from Iran's influence.
It will allow producing oil independently of Iran and OPEC and laying
oil pipelines via the Syrian territory and Syrian ports independently
from the Persian Gulf, Suez Canal and Turkey.
Via Syria's territory and Syrian ports...
Surely, it is the shortest, cheapest and most reliable way. However,
it is impossible as long as Assad, who ignores the interests of the
West and U.S., is in power in Syria. Therefore, it is necessary to
change the power, to try to maintain the territorial integrity of
Syria federalizing it and pump oil, especially that there is already
a solid oil pipeline with a capacity of 70 million tons in Syria.
But there are also interests of Russia and Iran, which Moscow and
Tehran are protecting by all means possible...
The positions of Russia and Iran on Syria are clear and explained by
the fact that the U.S. tries to oust them from Syria. Nevertheless,
there will be no war against Iran, just growing pressure on Iran and
attempts to break the power of ayatollahs. The decision on Syria,
which had not been adopted yet in the spring, is to achieve full
disorganization of Syria and launch a new dialogue. As a result,
Bashar Assad will leave after he receives security guarantees (maybe
false), and a new government will be appointed in Syria basing on
the Iraqi experience. The Iraqi model of power change is currently
being implemented in Syria with consideration of the previous mistakes.
The key mistake of the U.S. in Iraq was Ba'ath Party's overthrowing.
Now, the Syrian Ba'ath Party will be left at least part of the power
after Assad's leave. As a result of this combination, Turkey has been
shut in the south and it cannot get out independently. The Kurdish
factor is just the filling of the Syrian chocolate, for the entire
Arab world headed by Egypt has been mobilized not to allow Turkey to
the Middle East.
You have drawn the general regional picture, but what about Armenia
and Karabakh?
I am sure that war in Karabakh may begin only when Ankara signals.
Azerbaijan will never war alone. It is a bluff, nonsense, irrespective
of Baku's military budget. Turkey will make that signal only when
it makes sure that the West has left no path for its development
and expansion.
Last summer Americans and Turks had a serious talk. The U.S. blamed
Turkey for rejecting their repeatedly offered effective cooperation
and for preferring single-handed sail. Turkey, in turn, cannot blame
U.S. for impeding its sailing.
The U.S. is also ready to return to that talk, but whether it is
possible now when Turkey has prejudiced everyone against it, even those
who it had certain arrangements with. The U.S. told Turkey that it
has failed its regional policy and cannot return to the past, because
the U.S. cannot assure Turkey's neighbors in the region that it can
safeguard them against Turkey. Turks are so confused now. They have
faced a deadlock. They are making provocations, blasting bombs on the
borders, trying to involve NATO in all that and force a breakthrough
under NATO flag. They do not need Syria; they need the entire Middle
East. In response to their ambitions, the U.S. told Turks that they
could trade in textile, nuts and whatever they want, but oil and gas
and the billions of the Arab world are not theirs.
At the NATO Summit in Chicago Turkey denied the Cypriot reality and
insisted on a communique on regional conflicts aimed against Armenia.
That is why President Serzh Sargsyan did not attend the Summit. At the
Summit Ankara hinted that it is going to wage an independent regional
policy, which was quite unpleasant for NATO, because Turkey's regional
policy is a threat and something extra- systemic for NATO. Observing
the Turkish policy for the last 20 years I can state that it is of
sinusoidal nature. Pan Turkism, Neo-Ottomanism and Anatolian Islamism:
these three Turkish doctrines have never been independent from each
other, as U.S. was interested in those doctrines due to its aspirations
for Turkey's Islamization.
Why?
Few people understand why it was done. Islamization is expansion
of Turkey's foreign policy through clashes with neighbors. Clashes
accompanied with a scandal always lead to a deadlock.
War in the South Caucasus will be possible only when Turkey finds
itself in deadlock and needs to demonstrate who is 'the conductor'
in the region. Turkey and Azerbaijan had a strategic treaty not tested
by NATO. The later closed eyes on it to avoid a conflict with Turkey.
However, that treaty is illegal for it implies that Turkey will help
Azerbaijan in case of an attack on that country.
Nevertheless, Turkey cannot do it without relevant sanctions by
NATO, otherwise it will challenge its membership. Therefore, the
Turkish-Azerbaijan treaty is impossible in practice - these are
trappings of power. At the same time, Turkey has thousands of other
methods to help Azerbaijan in case of war. The military and political
leadership of Armenia is well aware that a new war will not last long,
for within two- three weeks of active, non-siege battle the Azerbaijani
army will not be able to conduct active operations. The results of the
role games held at the general staffs of serious countries exactly show
this. I attended the second political contours of those games. However,
if Azerbaijan suffers failure, non-one can suppose what Turkey will do:
whether it will care for its NATO membership then or not. Therefore,
Ankara will try its best in order the war does not lead to its direct
interference.
What about Iran?
Iran does not fit in the scenario of the regional war either.
Actually Iran helps the U.S. as it is a very important factor of the
USA's presence and even activation in the region, and frightening
of a number of countries in the West and East. Today's Iran cannot
become a partner for either Russia or China, it is just a country
which Russia and Iran take interests in. The U.S. has turned Iran
into a pariah state. For instance, Iran strives to SCO, but it is
not allowed to join the Organization because all the member- states
are system countries, part of the world elite. So, the world elite
cannot deal with a pariah-state. The U.S. has achieved that.
In other words, everything that happens around Iran Syria, Turkey
and the entire region is just imitation...
Imitation that reflects the image of our epoch. Such imitation was
problematic before. Now, in our information epoch when every idiot can
read whatever he wants, imitation has turned into a powerful weapon.
by David Stepanyan
Arminfo
Monday, October 22, 17:23
ArmInfo's interview with Igor Muradyan, a well-known analyst, one of
the initiators and heads of the Karabakh Movement of 1988
Mr. Muradyan, the latest developments around Syria and Iran, deployment
of Turkish troops near the Syrian border, at first sight, testify
to a sooner large-scale regional war. Do you see such trends in the
geopolitical situation?
The analytical community and the mass media are gradually arriving
at a conclusion that a big regional war is possible. I think special
attention should be given to the threats. After all the numerous talks
on failure of the monopolar world, one can come to the conclusion that
there are really very many poles. And these poles of international and
even regional significance are becoming more and more independent,
having a resource base for that. Yes, there are many poles, but the
United States is still the only world operator.
European Union has apparently given up the idea to have an operating
significance in the world, though it still hopes to become the only
arbitrator, moral and legal authority, etc.
The NATO Summit in Chicago contributed to overcoming of the
discrepancies among the NATO countries, because many of the NATO
members and partners realized that they could not do without the
Alliance.
There is a boom of independence in the world and some countries in the
world have suddenly decided that they are insufficiently independent.
All this are not just irrational ambitions, it is motivated by specific
economic goals.
Are the Arab revolutions among them?
Indeed, but even the Arab Spring was not a global threat. Those
revolutions started when it turned out that radical Islam suffered
fiasco.
The last NATO summit has shown that Turkey is a problem not only
because it seeks wider independence from the United States but also
because of its tensed relations with NATO.
The Turks are laying claims that cannot be ignored.
As a result, the Europeans and the Americans have come to a consensus
that they need a strategy to restrain the Turks and are actively
negotiating this project. Their goal is to subdue Turkey while their
mechanism is to create political, diplomatic, economic, social,
religious and ideological problems for the Turks. Today Turkey is
facing a very interesting situation: almost all of its neighbors,
the Arab, Balkan and Caucasus nations, see it as a potential threat
and have asked the Americans to do something about it.
But there are also Russia and Iran. Past year showed that in case of
necessity Ankara demonstrates rapprochement with Moscow...
The USA has never been concerned over possible alliance between Turkey
and Russia or Turkey and Iran, there are too many discrepancies
between them. The United States has always been concerned over the
Middle East, where the fate of Turkish ambitions and neo-Ottomanism
is decided. Therefore, Americans have made a powerful barrier
of Iraq and Syria, thereby creating an irresistible obstacle for
Turkey's promotion. Actually, over the recent years the USA posed
no obstacles in Turkey's way and offered Ankara to move forward and
enjoy its grandeur. Turkey moved forward and came across everybody's
resistance. This is why it should be taken into account that Turkey
is very much diverted from the Caucasus. It is not the power to act
in two directions adequately. It cannot act even in one direction,
as it cannot cross over Iraq and Syria", he said. In addition,
Americans are creating a home front consisting of Kurds.
Therefore, Turkey is trying to involve NATO in its game in every
possible way, but its attempts are in vain. Turkey will declare no
war against Syria all by itself. It's absolute nonsense. I think that
Ankara does not want to face the prospect of suffering immense losses,
remaining alone, and being excluded from NATO.
At a glance it may seem that it is Turkey that must play the key role
in supporting the Syrian rebels...
In reality Turkey is only instructed to ensure communications, delivery
of arms, and the logistic support for the manpower fighting against
Assad. Turkey cannot enter the territory of Syria, as it is not its
zone. It is the zone of the Western community's interests.
And if Turkey invades Syria all by itself, it will become the key
player in the developments and will dominate in the region, which
runs counter to the policy of restraining Turkey.
A question arises as to what makes Syria so important for the West?
Syria is the key country in the region and the fight for that country
has continued for decades; it has not begun recently. However,
now when a new very powerful project of an independent source of
oil is implemented, that fight has become even more important. The
Caspian source is of local importance, even despite Kazakhstan. The
oil reserves explored in Northern Iraq total 31.5 billion tons, which
is more than the total oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. Nearly 40%-45%
of total Iraqi oil is concentrated in the territory of Northern Iraq
far from the Shiite zone and, consequently, far from Iran's influence.
It will allow producing oil independently of Iran and OPEC and laying
oil pipelines via the Syrian territory and Syrian ports independently
from the Persian Gulf, Suez Canal and Turkey.
Via Syria's territory and Syrian ports...
Surely, it is the shortest, cheapest and most reliable way. However,
it is impossible as long as Assad, who ignores the interests of the
West and U.S., is in power in Syria. Therefore, it is necessary to
change the power, to try to maintain the territorial integrity of
Syria federalizing it and pump oil, especially that there is already
a solid oil pipeline with a capacity of 70 million tons in Syria.
But there are also interests of Russia and Iran, which Moscow and
Tehran are protecting by all means possible...
The positions of Russia and Iran on Syria are clear and explained by
the fact that the U.S. tries to oust them from Syria. Nevertheless,
there will be no war against Iran, just growing pressure on Iran and
attempts to break the power of ayatollahs. The decision on Syria,
which had not been adopted yet in the spring, is to achieve full
disorganization of Syria and launch a new dialogue. As a result,
Bashar Assad will leave after he receives security guarantees (maybe
false), and a new government will be appointed in Syria basing on
the Iraqi experience. The Iraqi model of power change is currently
being implemented in Syria with consideration of the previous mistakes.
The key mistake of the U.S. in Iraq was Ba'ath Party's overthrowing.
Now, the Syrian Ba'ath Party will be left at least part of the power
after Assad's leave. As a result of this combination, Turkey has been
shut in the south and it cannot get out independently. The Kurdish
factor is just the filling of the Syrian chocolate, for the entire
Arab world headed by Egypt has been mobilized not to allow Turkey to
the Middle East.
You have drawn the general regional picture, but what about Armenia
and Karabakh?
I am sure that war in Karabakh may begin only when Ankara signals.
Azerbaijan will never war alone. It is a bluff, nonsense, irrespective
of Baku's military budget. Turkey will make that signal only when
it makes sure that the West has left no path for its development
and expansion.
Last summer Americans and Turks had a serious talk. The U.S. blamed
Turkey for rejecting their repeatedly offered effective cooperation
and for preferring single-handed sail. Turkey, in turn, cannot blame
U.S. for impeding its sailing.
The U.S. is also ready to return to that talk, but whether it is
possible now when Turkey has prejudiced everyone against it, even those
who it had certain arrangements with. The U.S. told Turkey that it
has failed its regional policy and cannot return to the past, because
the U.S. cannot assure Turkey's neighbors in the region that it can
safeguard them against Turkey. Turks are so confused now. They have
faced a deadlock. They are making provocations, blasting bombs on the
borders, trying to involve NATO in all that and force a breakthrough
under NATO flag. They do not need Syria; they need the entire Middle
East. In response to their ambitions, the U.S. told Turks that they
could trade in textile, nuts and whatever they want, but oil and gas
and the billions of the Arab world are not theirs.
At the NATO Summit in Chicago Turkey denied the Cypriot reality and
insisted on a communique on regional conflicts aimed against Armenia.
That is why President Serzh Sargsyan did not attend the Summit. At the
Summit Ankara hinted that it is going to wage an independent regional
policy, which was quite unpleasant for NATO, because Turkey's regional
policy is a threat and something extra- systemic for NATO. Observing
the Turkish policy for the last 20 years I can state that it is of
sinusoidal nature. Pan Turkism, Neo-Ottomanism and Anatolian Islamism:
these three Turkish doctrines have never been independent from each
other, as U.S. was interested in those doctrines due to its aspirations
for Turkey's Islamization.
Why?
Few people understand why it was done. Islamization is expansion
of Turkey's foreign policy through clashes with neighbors. Clashes
accompanied with a scandal always lead to a deadlock.
War in the South Caucasus will be possible only when Turkey finds
itself in deadlock and needs to demonstrate who is 'the conductor'
in the region. Turkey and Azerbaijan had a strategic treaty not tested
by NATO. The later closed eyes on it to avoid a conflict with Turkey.
However, that treaty is illegal for it implies that Turkey will help
Azerbaijan in case of an attack on that country.
Nevertheless, Turkey cannot do it without relevant sanctions by
NATO, otherwise it will challenge its membership. Therefore, the
Turkish-Azerbaijan treaty is impossible in practice - these are
trappings of power. At the same time, Turkey has thousands of other
methods to help Azerbaijan in case of war. The military and political
leadership of Armenia is well aware that a new war will not last long,
for within two- three weeks of active, non-siege battle the Azerbaijani
army will not be able to conduct active operations. The results of the
role games held at the general staffs of serious countries exactly show
this. I attended the second political contours of those games. However,
if Azerbaijan suffers failure, non-one can suppose what Turkey will do:
whether it will care for its NATO membership then or not. Therefore,
Ankara will try its best in order the war does not lead to its direct
interference.
What about Iran?
Iran does not fit in the scenario of the regional war either.
Actually Iran helps the U.S. as it is a very important factor of the
USA's presence and even activation in the region, and frightening
of a number of countries in the West and East. Today's Iran cannot
become a partner for either Russia or China, it is just a country
which Russia and Iran take interests in. The U.S. has turned Iran
into a pariah state. For instance, Iran strives to SCO, but it is
not allowed to join the Organization because all the member- states
are system countries, part of the world elite. So, the world elite
cannot deal with a pariah-state. The U.S. has achieved that.
In other words, everything that happens around Iran Syria, Turkey
and the entire region is just imitation...
Imitation that reflects the image of our epoch. Such imitation was
problematic before. Now, in our information epoch when every idiot can
read whatever he wants, imitation has turned into a powerful weapon.