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WILL TIGRAN SARGSYAN LEAVE?
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27844.html
Published: 12:15:25 - 25/10/2012
The U.S. Ambassador to Armenia John Heffern telephoned Prime Minister
Tigran Sargsyan and congratulated him on the improvement of Armenia~Rs
ranking in Doing Business Index by 18. It means that the process of
starting a small or medium business in Armenia has been simplified.
Let us put aside the profile of this subject which makes achievements
appear highly relative.
This issue has a political aspect as well. Interestingly, the press
has recently reported that in November the Russian president Putin
may at last visit Armenia and bring along the ex-head of ARG and
ex-mayor of Yerevan Karen Karapetyan and consecrate him prime minister.
A few days later Doing Business appeared, which is political support
to Tigran Sargsyan, in fact. This support was established by the U.S.
Ambassador Heffern who promised further support of the United States
to business climate improvement in Armenia, which is equal to a
commitment of continuous political support.
What is interesting to know is whether the United States will support
Tigran Sargsyan after leaving the post of prime minister. There is
no doubt that Tigran Sargsyan is a possible presidential candidate
in 2018, one of Serzh Sargsyan~Rs heirs. It is not ruled out that
in order to improve his situation Tigran Sargsyan will need to leave
the post of prime minister.
Even though positive reports build up support, and changes for the
business climate are hailed, they are nevertheless cosmetic in the
context of real systemic problems of the Armenian economic which
are hindrances on the track to state modernization. Either Tigran
Sargsyan should show in action that he is able to boost the speed
and scope of reforms he declared, making its outcome more tangible
for ordinary citizens or he must leave.
Currently it is obvious that even if Tigran Sargsyan sincerely
wishes that, he is not efficient in his reforms in terms of public
legitimacy. The probability is not high that his efficiency will grow.
At least, the key is already in Serzh Sargsyan~Rs, not in Tigran
Sargsyan~Rs hand. So the risk grows for Tigran Sargsyan.
Frankly speaking, there is little probability that any prime minister
will succeed in achieving considerable change in the upcoming 3-4 or
5 years. The system will not permit that while struggle against it
will hardly be so powerful as to achieve a breakthrough. The first
five years will be the second half of the fight against the system
at best and most probably the game will end in a penalty shootout.
The effective way out for Tigran Sargsyan could be an evaluation of
the situation with tough statements including names, sparing Serzh
Sargsyan, of course, and resignation and dealing with party affairs.
Tigran Sargsyan will thus leave as an unsuccessful figure who, however,
was brave enough to take on the responsibility for reforms in this
reactive system.
In other words, the follower of the alternative path of slow but deep
change Tigran Sargsyan will announce that the internal work showed
the situation cannot be changed through the executive body unless the
situation inside the RPA changes. Moreover, by to the end of Serzh
Sargsyan~Rs second term, if he is able to be reelected, the internal
fight will have most probably shifted to the RPA, where an intensive
race for inheriting Serzh Sargsyan~Rs power will have started.
In other words, if currently the issue of power is resolved, at
least in the field of information, is solved in the RPA-PAP setting,
in the next stage the issue will be solved inside the RPA. Is the
United States preparing Tigran Sargsyan for this stage or does the U.S.
imagine him in that stage when it congratulates his success?
It is possible that the United States will bid not only on Tigran
Sargsyan in the stage of solving the issue of power in the RPA.
Moreover, it is not ruled out that the United States is gradually
getting hold of the steering wheel in the RPA-PAP domain and is
actually trying to shape an undefeatable play model evidence to
which is the U.S. attitude to Oskanian~Rs case and his actions. In an
effort to solve the issue of power inside the RPA the U.S. may try
to achieve a similar model, coming close to the undefeatable model
by means of the second candidate.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27844.html
Published: 12:15:25 - 25/10/2012
The U.S. Ambassador to Armenia John Heffern telephoned Prime Minister
Tigran Sargsyan and congratulated him on the improvement of Armenia~Rs
ranking in Doing Business Index by 18. It means that the process of
starting a small or medium business in Armenia has been simplified.
Let us put aside the profile of this subject which makes achievements
appear highly relative.
This issue has a political aspect as well. Interestingly, the press
has recently reported that in November the Russian president Putin
may at last visit Armenia and bring along the ex-head of ARG and
ex-mayor of Yerevan Karen Karapetyan and consecrate him prime minister.
A few days later Doing Business appeared, which is political support
to Tigran Sargsyan, in fact. This support was established by the U.S.
Ambassador Heffern who promised further support of the United States
to business climate improvement in Armenia, which is equal to a
commitment of continuous political support.
What is interesting to know is whether the United States will support
Tigran Sargsyan after leaving the post of prime minister. There is
no doubt that Tigran Sargsyan is a possible presidential candidate
in 2018, one of Serzh Sargsyan~Rs heirs. It is not ruled out that
in order to improve his situation Tigran Sargsyan will need to leave
the post of prime minister.
Even though positive reports build up support, and changes for the
business climate are hailed, they are nevertheless cosmetic in the
context of real systemic problems of the Armenian economic which
are hindrances on the track to state modernization. Either Tigran
Sargsyan should show in action that he is able to boost the speed
and scope of reforms he declared, making its outcome more tangible
for ordinary citizens or he must leave.
Currently it is obvious that even if Tigran Sargsyan sincerely
wishes that, he is not efficient in his reforms in terms of public
legitimacy. The probability is not high that his efficiency will grow.
At least, the key is already in Serzh Sargsyan~Rs, not in Tigran
Sargsyan~Rs hand. So the risk grows for Tigran Sargsyan.
Frankly speaking, there is little probability that any prime minister
will succeed in achieving considerable change in the upcoming 3-4 or
5 years. The system will not permit that while struggle against it
will hardly be so powerful as to achieve a breakthrough. The first
five years will be the second half of the fight against the system
at best and most probably the game will end in a penalty shootout.
The effective way out for Tigran Sargsyan could be an evaluation of
the situation with tough statements including names, sparing Serzh
Sargsyan, of course, and resignation and dealing with party affairs.
Tigran Sargsyan will thus leave as an unsuccessful figure who, however,
was brave enough to take on the responsibility for reforms in this
reactive system.
In other words, the follower of the alternative path of slow but deep
change Tigran Sargsyan will announce that the internal work showed
the situation cannot be changed through the executive body unless the
situation inside the RPA changes. Moreover, by to the end of Serzh
Sargsyan~Rs second term, if he is able to be reelected, the internal
fight will have most probably shifted to the RPA, where an intensive
race for inheriting Serzh Sargsyan~Rs power will have started.
In other words, if currently the issue of power is resolved, at
least in the field of information, is solved in the RPA-PAP setting,
in the next stage the issue will be solved inside the RPA. Is the
United States preparing Tigran Sargsyan for this stage or does the U.S.
imagine him in that stage when it congratulates his success?
It is possible that the United States will bid not only on Tigran
Sargsyan in the stage of solving the issue of power in the RPA.
Moreover, it is not ruled out that the United States is gradually
getting hold of the steering wheel in the RPA-PAP domain and is
actually trying to shape an undefeatable play model evidence to
which is the U.S. attitude to Oskanian~Rs case and his actions. In an
effort to solve the issue of power inside the RPA the U.S. may try
to achieve a similar model, coming close to the undefeatable model
by means of the second candidate.