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STEPAN GRIGORYAN: RUSSIA CANNOT IMPOSE PRESSURE UPON ARMENIA BECAUSE OF THE CUSTOMS UNION AS IT SCARES TO LOSE ITS ONLY ALLY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
Interview of Director of the Centre for Globalization and Regional
Cooperation Stepan Grigoryan with Arminfo news agency
by Ashot Safaryan
ARMINFO Tuesday, April 2, 14:56
Mr Grigoryan, after the presidential election in Armenia the problem of
comparison and even confrontation of the integration projects offered
to us by the global players has again become relevant also thanks to
Serzh Sargsya~Rs visit first to Moscow than to Brussels. What possible
scenarios canwe see here?
I think that by his first after the election visit to Moscow, President
Serzh Sasrgsyan demonstrated the strategic priorities of Armenia. I
think that was a wise and correct step. His visit to Moscow was not a
purely protocol one and contained a certain political gesture. Among
other issues discussed in Moscow, they also touched on the Customs
Union. But I don~Rt agree to the statements according to which . Russia
exerts pressure on Armenia to join the Customs Union.
In addition, one should not forget the recent statement by Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan in an interview with local TV channels
that in the Customs Union they do not wait for Armenia. I think that
the given issue was discussed in the course of the president's last
visit to Moscow and Armenia managed to bring the necessary arguments
in favor is its refusal to join that organizations. Those arguments
have probably satisfied the Kremlin.
Do you rule out raising of then gas tariff by Moscow for Armenia,
as the optimistic authorities of Armenia do not rule out that?
As regards the possibility of increasing the Russian gas tariff for
Armenia in response to Yerevan's refusal to join Moscow's integration
projects. Over the last years the gas tariff has been growing from time
to time without any political reasons. Therefore, it is wrong studying
gas as a measure of pressure on Armenia. Very often we underestimate
the role of Armenia for Russia in the South Caucasus. It is Armenia
that ensures military presence of Moscow in the region.
Russia has a military base in Armenia. As an ally, Armenia has got
more importance for Russia after exploitation of the Gabala radar
station was terminated. Gabala radar station's closing down will put
an end to Russia's military presence in Azerbaijan.
As for joining the Customs Union , Ukraine and its big market is more
important for Russia now.
Of course,. Moscow will not fully dismiss Armenia. Conferences on
the topic of the Customs Union will be regularly held in Armenia,
delegations will arrive in Armenia to persuade, at least, the expert
society, that it is necessary to involve in the integration projects
of Moscow. However, no radical measures or breakthroughs are expected
in the visible future
Against the background of such uncertainty in the matter of the
Customs union, the prospects of signing the EU Association agreement
have been gaining specific outlines. Is enthusiasm of the Armenian
party relevant now, taking into account the recession in the EU?
Europe has been gradually overcoming consequences of the crisis. The
most difficult period is already behind. Today there is a tendency
of the economy growth in several leading European countries -
Germany, Italy, France, etc. For this reason, I think that parallel
to surmounting the recession the EU will enhance cooperation with
its neighbours, including partners at post-Soviet area. Although
the EU has been developing the Eastern Partnership programme with
6 countries, there is no word about their joining the EU. For this
reason, Brussels does not scare that these 6 countries will become a
burden to it. Armenia should be concerned about rapprochement with
the EU most of all, as the European game rules are clear unlike,
for instance, the Customs Union offered by Moscow.
If not everything is clear with the Customs Union, why do the European
functionaries worry about that and put Armenia in front of the dilemma
from time to time?
The Europeans understand that the game rules in the Customs Union
confront their rules. For this reason, they worry. However, one
should understand that this dilemma is regarding only the economic
cooperation. As for the military and political sphere, here the EU
does not pretend to the role of Russia in Armenia.
What developments are expected in the Karabakh settlement in the
near future?
There will be no progress in the Nagorno- Karabakh peace talks in the
near future. Azerbaijan is preparing for a presidential election and
has no time for peace talks. In fact, there have been no high level
meetings between Armenia and Azerbaijan for over a year.
Among the key factors curbing the peace process are no mutual
confidence, the release of Azeri murderer Ramil Safarov and
Azerbaijan's tales about "the Khojaly Genocide."
The Armenian diplomacy must use this pause for active contacts with
other countries. An inter-parliamentary dialogue and mutual visits are
crucial for our efforts to raise the world community's awareness of
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and to prevent any attempts to distort
the truth.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Interview of Director of the Centre for Globalization and Regional
Cooperation Stepan Grigoryan with Arminfo news agency
by Ashot Safaryan
ARMINFO Tuesday, April 2, 14:56
Mr Grigoryan, after the presidential election in Armenia the problem of
comparison and even confrontation of the integration projects offered
to us by the global players has again become relevant also thanks to
Serzh Sargsya~Rs visit first to Moscow than to Brussels. What possible
scenarios canwe see here?
I think that by his first after the election visit to Moscow, President
Serzh Sasrgsyan demonstrated the strategic priorities of Armenia. I
think that was a wise and correct step. His visit to Moscow was not a
purely protocol one and contained a certain political gesture. Among
other issues discussed in Moscow, they also touched on the Customs
Union. But I don~Rt agree to the statements according to which . Russia
exerts pressure on Armenia to join the Customs Union.
In addition, one should not forget the recent statement by Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan in an interview with local TV channels
that in the Customs Union they do not wait for Armenia. I think that
the given issue was discussed in the course of the president's last
visit to Moscow and Armenia managed to bring the necessary arguments
in favor is its refusal to join that organizations. Those arguments
have probably satisfied the Kremlin.
Do you rule out raising of then gas tariff by Moscow for Armenia,
as the optimistic authorities of Armenia do not rule out that?
As regards the possibility of increasing the Russian gas tariff for
Armenia in response to Yerevan's refusal to join Moscow's integration
projects. Over the last years the gas tariff has been growing from time
to time without any political reasons. Therefore, it is wrong studying
gas as a measure of pressure on Armenia. Very often we underestimate
the role of Armenia for Russia in the South Caucasus. It is Armenia
that ensures military presence of Moscow in the region.
Russia has a military base in Armenia. As an ally, Armenia has got
more importance for Russia after exploitation of the Gabala radar
station was terminated. Gabala radar station's closing down will put
an end to Russia's military presence in Azerbaijan.
As for joining the Customs Union , Ukraine and its big market is more
important for Russia now.
Of course,. Moscow will not fully dismiss Armenia. Conferences on
the topic of the Customs Union will be regularly held in Armenia,
delegations will arrive in Armenia to persuade, at least, the expert
society, that it is necessary to involve in the integration projects
of Moscow. However, no radical measures or breakthroughs are expected
in the visible future
Against the background of such uncertainty in the matter of the
Customs union, the prospects of signing the EU Association agreement
have been gaining specific outlines. Is enthusiasm of the Armenian
party relevant now, taking into account the recession in the EU?
Europe has been gradually overcoming consequences of the crisis. The
most difficult period is already behind. Today there is a tendency
of the economy growth in several leading European countries -
Germany, Italy, France, etc. For this reason, I think that parallel
to surmounting the recession the EU will enhance cooperation with
its neighbours, including partners at post-Soviet area. Although
the EU has been developing the Eastern Partnership programme with
6 countries, there is no word about their joining the EU. For this
reason, Brussels does not scare that these 6 countries will become a
burden to it. Armenia should be concerned about rapprochement with
the EU most of all, as the European game rules are clear unlike,
for instance, the Customs Union offered by Moscow.
If not everything is clear with the Customs Union, why do the European
functionaries worry about that and put Armenia in front of the dilemma
from time to time?
The Europeans understand that the game rules in the Customs Union
confront their rules. For this reason, they worry. However, one
should understand that this dilemma is regarding only the economic
cooperation. As for the military and political sphere, here the EU
does not pretend to the role of Russia in Armenia.
What developments are expected in the Karabakh settlement in the
near future?
There will be no progress in the Nagorno- Karabakh peace talks in the
near future. Azerbaijan is preparing for a presidential election and
has no time for peace talks. In fact, there have been no high level
meetings between Armenia and Azerbaijan for over a year.
Among the key factors curbing the peace process are no mutual
confidence, the release of Azeri murderer Ramil Safarov and
Azerbaijan's tales about "the Khojaly Genocide."
The Armenian diplomacy must use this pause for active contacts with
other countries. An inter-parliamentary dialogue and mutual visits are
crucial for our efforts to raise the world community's awareness of
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and to prevent any attempts to distort
the truth.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress