Tweet
LAST CHANCE FOR BAREV MOVEMENT
In fact, Raffi Hovannisian did not succeed in disputing the election
results. Raffi's and Heritage Party's unexpected success of receiving
half a million votes was not translated to capital.
The PAP and ANC state every now and then that Raffi's success was
ensured by their electorates. Raffi did not believe this thesis. The
only stable electorate is that of the government composed of civil
servants, officials, pro-government businesses. The opposition's
electorate makes up its mind by situation. In other words, the
political force which is the leader of the opposition, represents the
"revolt" will appeal the dissatisfied electorate.
The problem is that the dissatisfied electorate is not capitalized
and remains in the air after post-electoral processes. Creation of
a new ANC including non-partisan participants of the movement could
be such a step. However, there are several reservations because
capitalization takes place at another level, not so political in
nature, such as loyalty etc.
Returning to Raffi, actually Raffi did not stand this thesis. The
capital which the Heritage had never had before was not fixed.
As a political tool the street is an important factor indeed. However,
it is not stable. It could be a territory for political behavior
in critical situations. Frequency of street opposition and fight in
Armenia is due to imperfection of the classic mechanisms of political
dialogue. In other words, there is no opposition that represents the
society except for the electoral, pre-electoral and post-electoral
periods.
It turns out that oppositional behavior lasts until after the voting
and grows into a movement and eventually disappears. The street is a
very important political tool in situations when classic mechanisms
of struggle do not function. Besides, street fight repeats which may
be a pleasant process but it is not political.
One of the most important fragments of political processes is the
fixation of the electoral process. It still remains a problem. The
opposition sector is not ready for the electoral processes because it
lacks a toolkit and human resources. It never recruits human resources,
this time either.
Barev Movement received different assessments. It has both good and
bad sides. One thing is clear. The achievements were underestimated,
the results were not capitalized, and it will not be a surprise if
the expectations from the mayoral election do not come true.
The RPA with its governmental resource will continue with the same
logic. The PAP with its financial and social resources will resist. As
a result, the huge opposition will be wasted or left in the air. The
reason is the discrepancy between the goals and possibilities of
Barev Movement. All the chances for a dialogue with the government
were wasted. PAP and ARF turned out to be temporary companions.
The election to the municipal council of Yerevan will be the last
trial for Raffi Hovannisian and his supporters. If Barev fails to
keep up the results of the presidential election, the political fight
will end. It will be hard to capitalize resources by then. There
is very little time left, and the street, despite all its positive
and pleasant aspects, is not a tool for protecting votes at polling
stations. And if Barev fails in the local election, the presidential
election will go without saying.
The main rival of Barev is PAP with its financial and economic
resources. Independent from the mindset of the public, the PAP is the
only extra-governmental force which will be able to protect its votes,
of course using the same tools as the government, such as vote buying
and local strongmen. Even though these are unacceptable and illegal
resources, these are resources which PAP can use successfully.
Levon Margaryan 13:34 12/04/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29605
In fact, Raffi Hovannisian did not succeed in disputing the election
results. Raffi's and Heritage Party's unexpected success of receiving
half a million votes was not translated to capital.
The PAP and ANC state every now and then that Raffi's success was
ensured by their electorates. Raffi did not believe this thesis. The
only stable electorate is that of the government composed of civil
servants, officials, pro-government businesses. The opposition's
electorate makes up its mind by situation. In other words, the
political force which is the leader of the opposition, represents the
"revolt" will appeal the dissatisfied electorate.
The problem is that the dissatisfied electorate is not capitalized
and remains in the air after post-electoral processes. Creation of
a new ANC including non-partisan participants of the movement could
be such a step. However, there are several reservations because
capitalization takes place at another level, not so political in
nature, such as loyalty etc.
Returning to Raffi, actually Raffi did not stand this thesis. The
capital which the Heritage had never had before was not fixed.
As a political tool the street is an important factor indeed. However,
it is not stable. It could be a territory for political behavior
in critical situations. Frequency of street opposition and fight in
Armenia is due to imperfection of the classic mechanisms of political
dialogue. In other words, there is no opposition that represents the
society except for the electoral, pre-electoral and post-electoral
periods.
It turns out that oppositional behavior lasts until after the voting
and grows into a movement and eventually disappears. The street is a
very important political tool in situations when classic mechanisms
of struggle do not function. Besides, street fight repeats which may
be a pleasant process but it is not political.
One of the most important fragments of political processes is the
fixation of the electoral process. It still remains a problem. The
opposition sector is not ready for the electoral processes because it
lacks a toolkit and human resources. It never recruits human resources,
this time either.
Barev Movement received different assessments. It has both good and
bad sides. One thing is clear. The achievements were underestimated,
the results were not capitalized, and it will not be a surprise if
the expectations from the mayoral election do not come true.
The RPA with its governmental resource will continue with the same
logic. The PAP with its financial and social resources will resist. As
a result, the huge opposition will be wasted or left in the air. The
reason is the discrepancy between the goals and possibilities of
Barev Movement. All the chances for a dialogue with the government
were wasted. PAP and ARF turned out to be temporary companions.
The election to the municipal council of Yerevan will be the last
trial for Raffi Hovannisian and his supporters. If Barev fails to
keep up the results of the presidential election, the political fight
will end. It will be hard to capitalize resources by then. There
is very little time left, and the street, despite all its positive
and pleasant aspects, is not a tool for protecting votes at polling
stations. And if Barev fails in the local election, the presidential
election will go without saying.
The main rival of Barev is PAP with its financial and economic
resources. Independent from the mindset of the public, the PAP is the
only extra-governmental force which will be able to protect its votes,
of course using the same tools as the government, such as vote buying
and local strongmen. Even though these are unacceptable and illegal
resources, these are resources which PAP can use successfully.
Levon Margaryan 13:34 12/04/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29605