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SOUTH CAUCASUS: WHO IF NOT US?
Once in answer to the question of the Armenian political scientist
who will dominate the South Caucasus, Zbigniew Brzezinski said:
"Who else if not us."
Independent from attention and actuality, the South Caucasus was
always on the table of the Western community as part of one strategy
or another. Besides the United States, France, Germany and the UK have
been active and they had different goals. Earlier the activity of the
United States shaded the policy of its partners but the Americans
and Europeans, despite controversies, reached solutions which were
in line with each other in many aspects of their behavior.
It first of all concerned two topics: which super region the South
Caucasus belongs to and what is the role of Turkey in the establishment
of processes and positions. Neither the United States, nor Europe
has ever viewed the South Caucasus as part of the Greater Near East
but as part of Europe. There has been no explanation from a certain
point of view. At least there seemed to be positive arguments and
counter-arguments.
The South Caucasus was viewed as a region with certain functions,
and this role logically and practically supposes high dynamics and
rotation of these functions. In certain periods commentators with
not enough information thought that it is time to return, which is
the result of short-sightedness and lack of professionalism.
Dynamics of functions does not mean that one of them could be ignored.
On the contrary, at certain periods all the functions intensify
together and at the same time there is no hope that the West will
lose interest in the South Caucasus. Multiplicity of the Western
policy intensified, the U.S. monopoly is eliminated, and part of
responsibility is delegated to the European partners, there is
reconciliation with Russia's goals with support of those positions
which have been acquired and which are expected to be acquired.
>>From the beginning of drafting and elaboration of the Western
strategy on the South Caucasus the concept of the South Caucasian
corridor was put forth which is a space where neither Russia, nor
Turkey dominate.
Over many years, however, the position of Russia was increasingly
unacceptable for the west in strategic terms. This is due to
transformation of the role and place of Russia in the global context.
Russia is transforming from a fragile and vulnerable world power
to a strong regional actor. In addition, the difference of its role
is its active policy in most regions. It favors the West, and under
these conditions achievement of more principled relations is possible.
However, the factor of Turkey remains. It has already excelled Russia
but its role and importance in the South Caucasus. The paradox of the
situation is that Turkey's partners in NATO understand this delicate
situation but definitely view Russia as one of the main factors of
containment of Turkey. Currently, Turkey has gone as far as to predict
the emergence of "clubs" of states within NATO and to create its own
pro-Turkish club, including new partners which are not members of
the alliance.
Everything looks unsteady and conventional but the alliance is
acquiring shades of conventionality. The goal of the west is to limit
the framework of regional policy within this "corridor". Breach
of format and meaning of the "corridor" is perceived by the West,
primarily the U.S. and NATO, as a hostile policy, no matter from whom
it comes.
The South Caucasus is losing the functions of military and other
transit, acquiring more stationery functions, that of the "belt"
of security for the West. Due to its presence in the region
Russia automatically performs the same functions and will sooner
or later demand a pay for these services. Here is what they call
counter-partnership.
A common and serious rival occurs whose interests are not in line
with the interests of the West and Russia, as well as many other
states of the neighboring regions. The sign of formation of a new
reality is that in this stage Turkey failed to use the "classic"
trick of maneuvering between the West and Russia.
Igor Muradyan 20:44 15/04/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29632
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Once in answer to the question of the Armenian political scientist
who will dominate the South Caucasus, Zbigniew Brzezinski said:
"Who else if not us."
Independent from attention and actuality, the South Caucasus was
always on the table of the Western community as part of one strategy
or another. Besides the United States, France, Germany and the UK have
been active and they had different goals. Earlier the activity of the
United States shaded the policy of its partners but the Americans
and Europeans, despite controversies, reached solutions which were
in line with each other in many aspects of their behavior.
It first of all concerned two topics: which super region the South
Caucasus belongs to and what is the role of Turkey in the establishment
of processes and positions. Neither the United States, nor Europe
has ever viewed the South Caucasus as part of the Greater Near East
but as part of Europe. There has been no explanation from a certain
point of view. At least there seemed to be positive arguments and
counter-arguments.
The South Caucasus was viewed as a region with certain functions,
and this role logically and practically supposes high dynamics and
rotation of these functions. In certain periods commentators with
not enough information thought that it is time to return, which is
the result of short-sightedness and lack of professionalism.
Dynamics of functions does not mean that one of them could be ignored.
On the contrary, at certain periods all the functions intensify
together and at the same time there is no hope that the West will
lose interest in the South Caucasus. Multiplicity of the Western
policy intensified, the U.S. monopoly is eliminated, and part of
responsibility is delegated to the European partners, there is
reconciliation with Russia's goals with support of those positions
which have been acquired and which are expected to be acquired.
>>From the beginning of drafting and elaboration of the Western
strategy on the South Caucasus the concept of the South Caucasian
corridor was put forth which is a space where neither Russia, nor
Turkey dominate.
Over many years, however, the position of Russia was increasingly
unacceptable for the west in strategic terms. This is due to
transformation of the role and place of Russia in the global context.
Russia is transforming from a fragile and vulnerable world power
to a strong regional actor. In addition, the difference of its role
is its active policy in most regions. It favors the West, and under
these conditions achievement of more principled relations is possible.
However, the factor of Turkey remains. It has already excelled Russia
but its role and importance in the South Caucasus. The paradox of the
situation is that Turkey's partners in NATO understand this delicate
situation but definitely view Russia as one of the main factors of
containment of Turkey. Currently, Turkey has gone as far as to predict
the emergence of "clubs" of states within NATO and to create its own
pro-Turkish club, including new partners which are not members of
the alliance.
Everything looks unsteady and conventional but the alliance is
acquiring shades of conventionality. The goal of the west is to limit
the framework of regional policy within this "corridor". Breach
of format and meaning of the "corridor" is perceived by the West,
primarily the U.S. and NATO, as a hostile policy, no matter from whom
it comes.
The South Caucasus is losing the functions of military and other
transit, acquiring more stationery functions, that of the "belt"
of security for the West. Due to its presence in the region
Russia automatically performs the same functions and will sooner
or later demand a pay for these services. Here is what they call
counter-partnership.
A common and serious rival occurs whose interests are not in line
with the interests of the West and Russia, as well as many other
states of the neighboring regions. The sign of formation of a new
reality is that in this stage Turkey failed to use the "classic"
trick of maneuvering between the West and Russia.
Igor Muradyan 20:44 15/04/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29632
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress