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TURKMENISTAN AND ARMENIA UNITE AGAINST AZERBAIJAN?
WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
April 15, 2013 Monday
BYLINE: Victor Krestyaninon
Source: Argumenty Nedeli, No. 14, April 11-17, 2013, p. 2
SITUATION IN RELATIONS BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN AND TURKMENISTAN GREW WORSE
IN THE CASPIAN SEA AGAIN; Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan quarrel about
disputable oil and gas field Kyapaz (Serdar) again.
The quarrel was caused by disputable oil and gas field Kyapaz
(Serdar). Its reserves are estimated at 50-100 million tons of oil and
more than 30 billion cubic meters of gas. Last year, Azerbaijani
border guards did not let the Turkmens conduct research there and the
incident nearly ended with a war. According to Azerbaijani experts,
this time the matter came to shelling of an Azerbaijani drilling
platform by the Turkmen navy.
This was not the end of the story. President of Turkmenistan G.
Berdymukhamedov who was reportedly very angry even phoned President of
Azerbaijan I. Aliyev and promised to destroy him. It is not known for
sure if such conversation has taken place. However, it is easy to
confirm this version by other facts. The Turkmen leader has paid
increased attention to his army lately.
Ashkhabad is actively modernizing combat airplanes. Su-25 attack
airplanes passed repair at the aviation repair plant in Kubinka in
Moscow Region. In total, the air force of Turkmenistan has more than
40 such airplanes. It is necessary to say that after breakup of the
USSR the country has inherited the aviation group the biggest in
Central Asia. More than 200 helicopters and airplanes remain from it
now including 22 fighters MiG-29.
In 2011, the navy included two big missile boats Molniya built in
Russia (Tarantul corvettes according to NATO classification). Three
others were ordered. They are armed with Uran-E systems with 16 cruise
missiles KH-35. Flight range of the missiles amounts to 130 kilometers
(flight range of modernized missiles amounts to 260 kilometers). This
means that Turkmens can fire through the whole Caspian Sea without
leaving of the port. Nobody except for Russia has such weapons in the
region. In any case, Azerbaijanis wish to buy KH-35 too but supply of
the missiles may begin not earlier than in 2014.
In September of 2012, President of Turkmenistan conducted the first
operational tactical exercises with combat firing practice
Khazar-2012.
Of course, in general the army of Azerbaijan looks stronger than its
opponent. For many years Baku increased the ground group against
Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. However, in a maritime war these forces
will be mostly useless. Besides, according to military experts, the
capital of Azerbaijan looks very vulnerable in case of this
hypothetical conflict. Aviation of Turkmenistan will be able to strike
at Baku flying from the airfield of Turkmenbashi (former Krasnovodsk).
Azerbaijanis will not reach Ashkhabad. Of course, it is possible to
defend the capital with S-300 systems but it is risky to weaken the
Armenian front. In other words, the country will be unable to fight at
two fronts.
Thus, it will be necessary to choose against whom to fight first of
all. War for oil and gas looks more logical and in case of victory it
is possible at least to pay back the expenses. However, Azerbaijan
cannot forgive the past defeat to Armenians. In the last few days,
press of the country has actively discussed the date of beginning of a
war for Nagorno-Karabakh.
Such situation pushes Armenia and Turkmenistan to each others'
embrace. An enemy of my enemy is my friend. Definitely understanding
this, on April 9 Berdymukhamedov sent S. Sargsian, deputy prime
minister of his government, to inauguration of newly elect President
S. Sargsian in Yerevan. It is clear that there will be no Azerbaijanis
at this event. In any case, the matter will not be confined to the
ceremony alone. The top-ranking official will also take part in the
meeting of heads of the intergovernmental Turkmen-Armenian commission
for economic cooperation.
Besides, the hands of Moscow are untied towards Azerbaijan now. At the
end of the last week, Russia finally quit its radar station in Gabala.
It seemed that this circumstance forced Aliyev to stake his all. To
prevent worsening of relations with the Kremlin and to block all
claims of Turkmenistan simultaneously, he requested Russia to relocate
a part of its Caspian Flotilla to Baku (the report about this was not
confirmed or denied officially). However, Azerbaijan is not a part of
the CSTO and Moscow has no reasons to take such step.
[Translated from Russian]
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
April 15, 2013 Monday
BYLINE: Victor Krestyaninon
Source: Argumenty Nedeli, No. 14, April 11-17, 2013, p. 2
SITUATION IN RELATIONS BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN AND TURKMENISTAN GREW WORSE
IN THE CASPIAN SEA AGAIN; Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan quarrel about
disputable oil and gas field Kyapaz (Serdar) again.
The quarrel was caused by disputable oil and gas field Kyapaz
(Serdar). Its reserves are estimated at 50-100 million tons of oil and
more than 30 billion cubic meters of gas. Last year, Azerbaijani
border guards did not let the Turkmens conduct research there and the
incident nearly ended with a war. According to Azerbaijani experts,
this time the matter came to shelling of an Azerbaijani drilling
platform by the Turkmen navy.
This was not the end of the story. President of Turkmenistan G.
Berdymukhamedov who was reportedly very angry even phoned President of
Azerbaijan I. Aliyev and promised to destroy him. It is not known for
sure if such conversation has taken place. However, it is easy to
confirm this version by other facts. The Turkmen leader has paid
increased attention to his army lately.
Ashkhabad is actively modernizing combat airplanes. Su-25 attack
airplanes passed repair at the aviation repair plant in Kubinka in
Moscow Region. In total, the air force of Turkmenistan has more than
40 such airplanes. It is necessary to say that after breakup of the
USSR the country has inherited the aviation group the biggest in
Central Asia. More than 200 helicopters and airplanes remain from it
now including 22 fighters MiG-29.
In 2011, the navy included two big missile boats Molniya built in
Russia (Tarantul corvettes according to NATO classification). Three
others were ordered. They are armed with Uran-E systems with 16 cruise
missiles KH-35. Flight range of the missiles amounts to 130 kilometers
(flight range of modernized missiles amounts to 260 kilometers). This
means that Turkmens can fire through the whole Caspian Sea without
leaving of the port. Nobody except for Russia has such weapons in the
region. In any case, Azerbaijanis wish to buy KH-35 too but supply of
the missiles may begin not earlier than in 2014.
In September of 2012, President of Turkmenistan conducted the first
operational tactical exercises with combat firing practice
Khazar-2012.
Of course, in general the army of Azerbaijan looks stronger than its
opponent. For many years Baku increased the ground group against
Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. However, in a maritime war these forces
will be mostly useless. Besides, according to military experts, the
capital of Azerbaijan looks very vulnerable in case of this
hypothetical conflict. Aviation of Turkmenistan will be able to strike
at Baku flying from the airfield of Turkmenbashi (former Krasnovodsk).
Azerbaijanis will not reach Ashkhabad. Of course, it is possible to
defend the capital with S-300 systems but it is risky to weaken the
Armenian front. In other words, the country will be unable to fight at
two fronts.
Thus, it will be necessary to choose against whom to fight first of
all. War for oil and gas looks more logical and in case of victory it
is possible at least to pay back the expenses. However, Azerbaijan
cannot forgive the past defeat to Armenians. In the last few days,
press of the country has actively discussed the date of beginning of a
war for Nagorno-Karabakh.
Such situation pushes Armenia and Turkmenistan to each others'
embrace. An enemy of my enemy is my friend. Definitely understanding
this, on April 9 Berdymukhamedov sent S. Sargsian, deputy prime
minister of his government, to inauguration of newly elect President
S. Sargsian in Yerevan. It is clear that there will be no Azerbaijanis
at this event. In any case, the matter will not be confined to the
ceremony alone. The top-ranking official will also take part in the
meeting of heads of the intergovernmental Turkmen-Armenian commission
for economic cooperation.
Besides, the hands of Moscow are untied towards Azerbaijan now. At the
end of the last week, Russia finally quit its radar station in Gabala.
It seemed that this circumstance forced Aliyev to stake his all. To
prevent worsening of relations with the Kremlin and to block all
claims of Turkmenistan simultaneously, he requested Russia to relocate
a part of its Caspian Flotilla to Baku (the report about this was not
confirmed or denied officially). However, Azerbaijan is not a part of
the CSTO and Moscow has no reasons to take such step.
[Translated from Russian]
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress