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GEORGE TARKHAN-MOURAVI: ARMENIA SIMPLY HAS NO ALTERNATIVE TO BEING PART OF CSTO AND IS NO LESS EAGER TO BE PART OF THE WEST
ArmInfo's interview with George Tarkhan-Mouravi, Director of the
Institute for Policy Studies (Tbilisi)
by David Stepanyan
Tuesday, April 16, 15:08
Judging by meetings of Russian Deputy FM Grigory Karasin and Georgian
Special Representative for Russia Zurab Abashidze, Moscow is currently
trying to build relations with new authorities in Tbilisi. Do you
see any risks for the Georgian Dream and Georgia in this cooperation?
Everything depends on the extent of that cooperation. There are red
lines nobody is going to cross, such as diplomatic relations or the
recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia, and this is
exactly what may pose some risks for our country.
Is Georgian Dream free in decision-making and from the pressure of
Washington and Brussels on Saakashvili?
No one is free from pressure. Today Georgian Dream is less dependent
on the West than Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is, but
dependence is not always bad, especially when things are moving in
the right direction.
Minister for Reintegration of Georgia Paata Zakareishvili characterized
the perspectives of restoration of the Abkhazian section of the railway
as an idea that was not negotiated for. He cast doubt on readiness of
Moscow to study the railway issue and directly linked it to revision
of Russia's policy on Abkhazia's independence. Can one suppose that
restoration of the Abkhazian railway is not on agenda of Tbilisi but
'a bait' for Moscow?
I think the issue was raised seriously, but without necessary
preliminary processing. It has become clear that Georgia does not need
the restart of the Abkhazian railway for the moment but may well need
additional transportation lines in the near future.
At a glance, change of power in Georgia seems to open new opportunities
for total change of the dividing lines in the region. In Georgia
they are seriously concerned over the country's dependence on the
Turkish-Azerbaijani transit and influence of those countries on
Georgia. Now, Georgia together with Russia, Armenia and Iran can
theoretically make a geopolitical breach of the situation in the
region forming a new north-south axis and get rid of that dependence.
Why doesn't Tbilisi display interest in such large-scale project?
The Georgian authorities are not very much concerned over their
dependence on the Turkish-Azeri transit and do not seem to be very
much interested in the project to form a north-south axis from Russia
through Georgia and Armenia to Iran. I think these are just hopes. And
Tbilisi thinks in the same way judging by the low interest it displays
in the project.
NATO represented by Turkey influences Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Armenia is a CSTO member. Georgia strives for NATO. Is it right to say
that Russia's influence on the South Caucasus is maintained only at the
expense of Armenia, while the balance of forces is in favor of NATO?
Armenia is also active in cooperating with NATO, and nobody there
seems to be eager to join the newly formed Eurasian structures.
Armenia simply has no alternative to being part of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization and is no less eager to be part of the
West. Armenia is one of the ways for Russia to realize its influence
on our region, but let's not forget that Russia's key friends are
the army and the navy.
All regional projects involving Turkey and Azerbaijan aim to even more
oust Armenia. Is Georgia interested in Armenia's isolation given that
it is the key transit country for those projects?
I think you overestimate Armenia's role in the plans and interests of
Georgia. I do not think that Armenia's isolation - something Georgia's
key partners Turkey and Azerbaijan are trying to realize - is not a
priority or even a goal for Georgia - even though this process might
give the country certain benefits.
One should not overestimate Armenia's role in Georgia's plans and
priorities. Just like Armenia, Georgia pursues its own goals, and
these goals have western rather than northern orientation. I would
rather not advise Armenia on how to overcome this isolation, but the
roots of this problem are certainly not in Georgia.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=581759D0-A686-11E2-A3F0F6327207157C
From: A. Papazian
ArmInfo's interview with George Tarkhan-Mouravi, Director of the
Institute for Policy Studies (Tbilisi)
by David Stepanyan
Tuesday, April 16, 15:08
Judging by meetings of Russian Deputy FM Grigory Karasin and Georgian
Special Representative for Russia Zurab Abashidze, Moscow is currently
trying to build relations with new authorities in Tbilisi. Do you
see any risks for the Georgian Dream and Georgia in this cooperation?
Everything depends on the extent of that cooperation. There are red
lines nobody is going to cross, such as diplomatic relations or the
recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia, and this is
exactly what may pose some risks for our country.
Is Georgian Dream free in decision-making and from the pressure of
Washington and Brussels on Saakashvili?
No one is free from pressure. Today Georgian Dream is less dependent
on the West than Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is, but
dependence is not always bad, especially when things are moving in
the right direction.
Minister for Reintegration of Georgia Paata Zakareishvili characterized
the perspectives of restoration of the Abkhazian section of the railway
as an idea that was not negotiated for. He cast doubt on readiness of
Moscow to study the railway issue and directly linked it to revision
of Russia's policy on Abkhazia's independence. Can one suppose that
restoration of the Abkhazian railway is not on agenda of Tbilisi but
'a bait' for Moscow?
I think the issue was raised seriously, but without necessary
preliminary processing. It has become clear that Georgia does not need
the restart of the Abkhazian railway for the moment but may well need
additional transportation lines in the near future.
At a glance, change of power in Georgia seems to open new opportunities
for total change of the dividing lines in the region. In Georgia
they are seriously concerned over the country's dependence on the
Turkish-Azerbaijani transit and influence of those countries on
Georgia. Now, Georgia together with Russia, Armenia and Iran can
theoretically make a geopolitical breach of the situation in the
region forming a new north-south axis and get rid of that dependence.
Why doesn't Tbilisi display interest in such large-scale project?
The Georgian authorities are not very much concerned over their
dependence on the Turkish-Azeri transit and do not seem to be very
much interested in the project to form a north-south axis from Russia
through Georgia and Armenia to Iran. I think these are just hopes. And
Tbilisi thinks in the same way judging by the low interest it displays
in the project.
NATO represented by Turkey influences Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Armenia is a CSTO member. Georgia strives for NATO. Is it right to say
that Russia's influence on the South Caucasus is maintained only at the
expense of Armenia, while the balance of forces is in favor of NATO?
Armenia is also active in cooperating with NATO, and nobody there
seems to be eager to join the newly formed Eurasian structures.
Armenia simply has no alternative to being part of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization and is no less eager to be part of the
West. Armenia is one of the ways for Russia to realize its influence
on our region, but let's not forget that Russia's key friends are
the army and the navy.
All regional projects involving Turkey and Azerbaijan aim to even more
oust Armenia. Is Georgia interested in Armenia's isolation given that
it is the key transit country for those projects?
I think you overestimate Armenia's role in the plans and interests of
Georgia. I do not think that Armenia's isolation - something Georgia's
key partners Turkey and Azerbaijan are trying to realize - is not a
priority or even a goal for Georgia - even though this process might
give the country certain benefits.
One should not overestimate Armenia's role in Georgia's plans and
priorities. Just like Armenia, Georgia pursues its own goals, and
these goals have western rather than northern orientation. I would
rather not advise Armenia on how to overcome this isolation, but the
roots of this problem are certainly not in Georgia.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=581759D0-A686-11E2-A3F0F6327207157C
From: A. Papazian