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Foreign Policy Journal
In Search of Effective Deterrence
by Aram Avetisyan
April 16, 2013
The recent threats of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un about attacks
against the U.S. and its ally South Korea continues to be a source of global
concern. A new wave of aggressive rhetoric elevated tensions to a high level
in the South Asian region, including a risk of nuclear strikes. Regardless
how serious those threats may be, they do threaten stability and regional
security, leading to escalation and increasing possibility of war.
The irresponsible and unpredictable North Korean totalitarian regime
continuously uses escalating rhetoric as a political instrument blackmailing
the world. The aggressive rhetoric and threats of new war have become more
pronounced since the young dictator of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, came to
power after the death of his father in 2012.
American and international figures have reacted. U.S. Secretary of State
John Kerry called Pyongyang's threats of military action against South Korea
and the United States "provocative, dangerous and reckless." U.N.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (originally from South Korea) described the
North Korean behavior as being on a "collision course with the international
community". Condemnations came from many other countries as well.
At the other side of Asia, in Azerbaijan, another dictator who also
inherited power from his father, Ilham Aliev, continuously uses bellicose
rhetoric and threatening to restart a war against its neighboring Armenia
and Nagorno Karabakh. Aliyev and his regime are known as one of the most
corrupted in the world.[1] Fueled by revenues from oil production, Aliyev
and family have stashed their cash in the offshore zones.[2]
Like North Korea's, Azerbaijan's warmongering should not be ignored since a
new war in the South Caucasus could also turn quite catastrophic. Taking
into consideration the arms build-up launched by Azerbaijan and its
continuing weapons accumulation, a new war could devastate a whole region
and cause dire humanitarian consequences for all sides of the conflict.
If the international community desires peace and stability in the South
Caucasus, it should take Azerbaijan to task for North Korean style rhetoric.
Azerbaijan's Aliev should as also stop his hate rhetoric, and prepare his
country for peace by ruling out military solutions and refraining from
threats to use force as urged by the United States and the rest of
international community.[3] Otherwise, while brandishing their arms,
dictators of all kinds will continue to blackmail the world while seeking to
keep their compatriots captive in their dictatorial systems.
Notes
[1] Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), "OCCRP Names
Aliyev "Person Of The Year", December 31, 2012:
https://reportingproject.net/occrp/index.php/en/ccwatch/cc-watch-indepth/177
2-occrp-names-aliyev-qperson-of-the-year-q-
[2] "Offshore Companies Link Corporate Mogul, Azerbaijan's President",
RFR/RL, April 04, 2013:
http://www.rferl.org/content/azerbaijan-aliyev-family-offshore-businesses/24
947900.html?fb_action_ids=508187335906797&fb_actio n_types=og.recommends&fb_s
ource=timeline_og&action_object_map=%7B%2250818733 5906797%22%3A4816709685548
94%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22508187335906797%22%3A% 22og.recommends%22%7D&acti
on_ref_map=%5B%5D; See also "Pricey real estate deals in Dubai raise
questions about Azerbaijan's president", The Washington Post, March 5, 2010:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/04/AR2010030405
390.html
[3] U.S. State Department, April 8, 2013:
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2013/04/207193.htm#AZERBAIJAN See also:
OSCE Minsk Group, Statement by the Heads of Delegation of the OSCE Minsk
Group Co-Chair countries, December 6, 2012:
http://www.osce.org/mg/97882
Foreign Policy Journal
In Search of Effective Deterrence
by Aram Avetisyan
April 16, 2013
The recent threats of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un about attacks
against the U.S. and its ally South Korea continues to be a source of global
concern. A new wave of aggressive rhetoric elevated tensions to a high level
in the South Asian region, including a risk of nuclear strikes. Regardless
how serious those threats may be, they do threaten stability and regional
security, leading to escalation and increasing possibility of war.
The irresponsible and unpredictable North Korean totalitarian regime
continuously uses escalating rhetoric as a political instrument blackmailing
the world. The aggressive rhetoric and threats of new war have become more
pronounced since the young dictator of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, came to
power after the death of his father in 2012.
American and international figures have reacted. U.S. Secretary of State
John Kerry called Pyongyang's threats of military action against South Korea
and the United States "provocative, dangerous and reckless." U.N.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (originally from South Korea) described the
North Korean behavior as being on a "collision course with the international
community". Condemnations came from many other countries as well.
At the other side of Asia, in Azerbaijan, another dictator who also
inherited power from his father, Ilham Aliev, continuously uses bellicose
rhetoric and threatening to restart a war against its neighboring Armenia
and Nagorno Karabakh. Aliyev and his regime are known as one of the most
corrupted in the world.[1] Fueled by revenues from oil production, Aliyev
and family have stashed their cash in the offshore zones.[2]
Like North Korea's, Azerbaijan's warmongering should not be ignored since a
new war in the South Caucasus could also turn quite catastrophic. Taking
into consideration the arms build-up launched by Azerbaijan and its
continuing weapons accumulation, a new war could devastate a whole region
and cause dire humanitarian consequences for all sides of the conflict.
If the international community desires peace and stability in the South
Caucasus, it should take Azerbaijan to task for North Korean style rhetoric.
Azerbaijan's Aliev should as also stop his hate rhetoric, and prepare his
country for peace by ruling out military solutions and refraining from
threats to use force as urged by the United States and the rest of
international community.[3] Otherwise, while brandishing their arms,
dictators of all kinds will continue to blackmail the world while seeking to
keep their compatriots captive in their dictatorial systems.
Notes
[1] Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), "OCCRP Names
Aliyev "Person Of The Year", December 31, 2012:
https://reportingproject.net/occrp/index.php/en/ccwatch/cc-watch-indepth/177
2-occrp-names-aliyev-qperson-of-the-year-q-
[2] "Offshore Companies Link Corporate Mogul, Azerbaijan's President",
RFR/RL, April 04, 2013:
http://www.rferl.org/content/azerbaijan-aliyev-family-offshore-businesses/24
947900.html?fb_action_ids=508187335906797&fb_actio n_types=og.recommends&fb_s
ource=timeline_og&action_object_map=%7B%2250818733 5906797%22%3A4816709685548
94%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22508187335906797%22%3A% 22og.recommends%22%7D&acti
on_ref_map=%5B%5D; See also "Pricey real estate deals in Dubai raise
questions about Azerbaijan's president", The Washington Post, March 5, 2010:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/04/AR2010030405
390.html
[3] U.S. State Department, April 8, 2013:
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2013/04/207193.htm#AZERBAIJAN See also:
OSCE Minsk Group, Statement by the Heads of Delegation of the OSCE Minsk
Group Co-Chair countries, December 6, 2012:
http://www.osce.org/mg/97882