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MATEUSZ PISKORSKI: ARMENIA WILL SHORTLY START NEGOTIATIONS ON JOINING EURASIAN UNION IN 2014
ArmInfo's interview with Mateusz Piskorski, Director of the European
Center of Geopolitical Analysis, PhD in Political Science
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Friday, April 19, 12:43
Earlier in February you declared that the OSCE Minsk Group has
exhausted its potential in the Karabakh peace process. Is there any
alternative to the negotiations within the given format?
I just made an assessment of the real achievements of the Minsk Group.
That assessment was not very positive, but the fact of existence of
the negotiation format probably helps easing tension. Let's study the
latest achievements of the Group. The Madrid Principles proved
inadmissible, at least, to one of the parties to the conflict. Despite
the efforts of the negotiators, the Azerbaijani party has again made
provocative operations recently in the course of the presidential race
in Armenia. The first and the crucial moment impeding peaceful
resolution of the Karabakh conflict is absence of one of the direct
parties to the conflict in the format of negotiations. If everyone
realizes the existence of a de-facto state, such as NKR, I think, it
is worth recognizing Stepanakert's status as a party to the
negotiations. The Karabakh conflict directly endangers the interests
and security of some other countries. Turkey and Iran are neighboring
Karabakh, and Ankara is able to seriously influence the political
processes in Baku. As for Tehran, it may also participate in the
negotiations being well aware of the sources of the conflict.
At the Roundtable discussions dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the
Karabakh Movement you said that the only way to resolve the Karabakh
conflict is to recognize independence of Nagorno Karabakh. Did you
mean Armenia or the world community?
Since 2008, when the West recognized Kosovo and Russia recognized
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, we have been in a completely new
situation. I think that President Serzh Sargsyan perfectly understands
that at some moment Armenia will have no other way but to recognize
the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The situation is quite ocmplicate. The
president is right when he says that Armenia is facing a dilemma: on
the one hand, Armenia knows that if it recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh
unilaterally, this may result in growing tensions and even armed
clashes, on the other hand, if it is waiting for other countries to do
it, this may never happen simply because the others are waiting for
Armenia. I think Armenia must still be the first to recognize Nagorno-
Karabakh's independence, but only if it is sure that Russia and maybe
even Iran will follow its example. Then, Armenia will have to use the
potential of the Armenian Diaspora in the West for the similar
purposes.
You were observing the Feb presidential election in Armenia as a
member of ICES Observation Mission. Do you think that the demands of
Raffi Hovanisian's movement are justified and grounded?
Let's not pretending as if we do not know the rules of political
fight. After defeat, any runner-up candidate will blame the winner
for election rigging, especially, when the winner is the incumbent
president. In the meanwhile, I observed quite calm atmosphere on the
voting day in the country, which is not typical for election rigging.
In addition, observers registered no serious violations of the
Election Code and President Sargsyan has got no serious opponents. At
present, Raffi Hovannisian acts in line with PR-game rules. His
headquarters is rather professional and they realized that to become
an opposition leader a politician must work hard and stay in the focus
of Mass Media attention. From the viewpoint of Mass Media, only
extremely harsh statements are of utmost interest, as a matter of
fact.
What foreign forces are, first of all, interested in formation of
"Barevolution" ("Revolution of Greetings") opposition movement in
Armenia? What is their motivation?
All I can say is that there are no preconditions for internal turmoil
and fierce political fight in Armenia. Armenia is not on a paradise
island, but in the center of one of the most instable regions in the
world. Technologies, even logotypes, resemble the Serbian 'Otpor',
with the color reminding the Ukrainian 'orange' revolution. They
probably use the civil resistance technology developed by Gene Sharp,
and Washington took advantage of that. However, Azerbaijan is also
interested in destabilization of the situation in Armenia.
Experts say that the USA and EU have already made the first steps to
expand their influence in the South Caucasus taking advantage of
Russia's inconsistent and uncoordinated policy...
For the United States the South Caucasus is part of the Greater Middle
East or, as Zbigniew Brzezinski calls it, the Eurasian Balkans. And if
so, this region must be in a state of constant chaos, on the verge of
war. Armenia is part of this scenario, especially as it is one of
Russia's few post-Soviet allies. No coincidence that here the United
States has its biggest embassy in the region. The U.S. is one of the
key geo- political players in this area. Turkey and Iran are also
playing, but the key rival is certainly Russia. The EU has almost no
levers of influence in the region. Of course, Armenia is closer to the
EU than any of the other post-Soviet republics may be: the Armenians
have centuries-old cultural ties with Europe and part of its identity.
I think the Armenian Diaspora has more levers of influence on the EU
than the EU has in Armenia. Of course, this is soft power, but the EU
no power here at all. I do not think that the EU will be able to give
more money to the dying Eastern Partnership program. Formerly it was
just 600mln EUR for six countries for five years. Today only Germany
can afford an ambitious foreign policy, but it does not seem to be
very much interested in the South Caucasus.
After the presidential election in Armenia the problem of opposition
between the Customs Union offered to Yerevan and the EU Association
Agreement has become quite relevant. Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Moscow
and Brussels has greatly contributed to that. What possible scenarios
do you anticipate in the given area?
>>From the economic point of view Armenia should consider the option
that will strengthen its security. Given the fact that the European
Union lacks the relevant instruments and potential, Armenia will
shortly start negotiations on joining the Eurasian Union in 2014. I am
surprised wit the fact that most of those coming out against the
Armenian-Russian cooperation stress that integration is impossible due
to the lack of a common border with Russia. In the meantime, they are
dreaming of European integration, but forget that the nearest EU
country is Cyprus. If the project of opening of the Abkhazian railway
succeeds and the Moscow-Tbilisi relations normalize, Yerevan will
become quite close to Russia. At the same time Moscow wants to gain
certain success on the path of integration of the post-Soviet space,
however, it is still hard to hope for success in negotiations with
Ukraine. Armenia may have a good moment to gain beneficial conditions
for participation in the Eurasian integration project. The EU has
exhausted its development potential and the European project for the
post-Soviet countries is actually suspended. As for the Eurasian
project, it has yet to get into full swing. Though it is not known yet
what it can do, nevertheless, thanks to that project, Armenia has at
least one extra option.
ArmInfo's interview with Mateusz Piskorski, Director of the European
Center of Geopolitical Analysis, PhD in Political Science
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Friday, April 19, 12:43
Earlier in February you declared that the OSCE Minsk Group has
exhausted its potential in the Karabakh peace process. Is there any
alternative to the negotiations within the given format?
I just made an assessment of the real achievements of the Minsk Group.
That assessment was not very positive, but the fact of existence of
the negotiation format probably helps easing tension. Let's study the
latest achievements of the Group. The Madrid Principles proved
inadmissible, at least, to one of the parties to the conflict. Despite
the efforts of the negotiators, the Azerbaijani party has again made
provocative operations recently in the course of the presidential race
in Armenia. The first and the crucial moment impeding peaceful
resolution of the Karabakh conflict is absence of one of the direct
parties to the conflict in the format of negotiations. If everyone
realizes the existence of a de-facto state, such as NKR, I think, it
is worth recognizing Stepanakert's status as a party to the
negotiations. The Karabakh conflict directly endangers the interests
and security of some other countries. Turkey and Iran are neighboring
Karabakh, and Ankara is able to seriously influence the political
processes in Baku. As for Tehran, it may also participate in the
negotiations being well aware of the sources of the conflict.
At the Roundtable discussions dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the
Karabakh Movement you said that the only way to resolve the Karabakh
conflict is to recognize independence of Nagorno Karabakh. Did you
mean Armenia or the world community?
Since 2008, when the West recognized Kosovo and Russia recognized
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, we have been in a completely new
situation. I think that President Serzh Sargsyan perfectly understands
that at some moment Armenia will have no other way but to recognize
the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The situation is quite ocmplicate. The
president is right when he says that Armenia is facing a dilemma: on
the one hand, Armenia knows that if it recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh
unilaterally, this may result in growing tensions and even armed
clashes, on the other hand, if it is waiting for other countries to do
it, this may never happen simply because the others are waiting for
Armenia. I think Armenia must still be the first to recognize Nagorno-
Karabakh's independence, but only if it is sure that Russia and maybe
even Iran will follow its example. Then, Armenia will have to use the
potential of the Armenian Diaspora in the West for the similar
purposes.
You were observing the Feb presidential election in Armenia as a
member of ICES Observation Mission. Do you think that the demands of
Raffi Hovanisian's movement are justified and grounded?
Let's not pretending as if we do not know the rules of political
fight. After defeat, any runner-up candidate will blame the winner
for election rigging, especially, when the winner is the incumbent
president. In the meanwhile, I observed quite calm atmosphere on the
voting day in the country, which is not typical for election rigging.
In addition, observers registered no serious violations of the
Election Code and President Sargsyan has got no serious opponents. At
present, Raffi Hovannisian acts in line with PR-game rules. His
headquarters is rather professional and they realized that to become
an opposition leader a politician must work hard and stay in the focus
of Mass Media attention. From the viewpoint of Mass Media, only
extremely harsh statements are of utmost interest, as a matter of
fact.
What foreign forces are, first of all, interested in formation of
"Barevolution" ("Revolution of Greetings") opposition movement in
Armenia? What is their motivation?
All I can say is that there are no preconditions for internal turmoil
and fierce political fight in Armenia. Armenia is not on a paradise
island, but in the center of one of the most instable regions in the
world. Technologies, even logotypes, resemble the Serbian 'Otpor',
with the color reminding the Ukrainian 'orange' revolution. They
probably use the civil resistance technology developed by Gene Sharp,
and Washington took advantage of that. However, Azerbaijan is also
interested in destabilization of the situation in Armenia.
Experts say that the USA and EU have already made the first steps to
expand their influence in the South Caucasus taking advantage of
Russia's inconsistent and uncoordinated policy...
For the United States the South Caucasus is part of the Greater Middle
East or, as Zbigniew Brzezinski calls it, the Eurasian Balkans. And if
so, this region must be in a state of constant chaos, on the verge of
war. Armenia is part of this scenario, especially as it is one of
Russia's few post-Soviet allies. No coincidence that here the United
States has its biggest embassy in the region. The U.S. is one of the
key geo- political players in this area. Turkey and Iran are also
playing, but the key rival is certainly Russia. The EU has almost no
levers of influence in the region. Of course, Armenia is closer to the
EU than any of the other post-Soviet republics may be: the Armenians
have centuries-old cultural ties with Europe and part of its identity.
I think the Armenian Diaspora has more levers of influence on the EU
than the EU has in Armenia. Of course, this is soft power, but the EU
no power here at all. I do not think that the EU will be able to give
more money to the dying Eastern Partnership program. Formerly it was
just 600mln EUR for six countries for five years. Today only Germany
can afford an ambitious foreign policy, but it does not seem to be
very much interested in the South Caucasus.
After the presidential election in Armenia the problem of opposition
between the Customs Union offered to Yerevan and the EU Association
Agreement has become quite relevant. Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Moscow
and Brussels has greatly contributed to that. What possible scenarios
do you anticipate in the given area?
>>From the economic point of view Armenia should consider the option
that will strengthen its security. Given the fact that the European
Union lacks the relevant instruments and potential, Armenia will
shortly start negotiations on joining the Eurasian Union in 2014. I am
surprised wit the fact that most of those coming out against the
Armenian-Russian cooperation stress that integration is impossible due
to the lack of a common border with Russia. In the meantime, they are
dreaming of European integration, but forget that the nearest EU
country is Cyprus. If the project of opening of the Abkhazian railway
succeeds and the Moscow-Tbilisi relations normalize, Yerevan will
become quite close to Russia. At the same time Moscow wants to gain
certain success on the path of integration of the post-Soviet space,
however, it is still hard to hope for success in negotiations with
Ukraine. Armenia may have a good moment to gain beneficial conditions
for participation in the Eurasian integration project. The EU has
exhausted its development potential and the European project for the
post-Soviet countries is actually suspended. As for the Eurasian
project, it has yet to get into full swing. Though it is not known yet
what it can do, nevertheless, thanks to that project, Armenia has at
least one extra option.