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THERE IS NO PRACTICE OF QUIET CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT
Interview with Gaidz Minassian, expert of French Center for Strategic
Studies
The post-electoral developments culminated in April 9, no dialogue
followed. Should unpredictable results be expected in the mayoral
election of May 5?
There happened what was expected. Raffi Hovannisian lost.
Unfortunately, he made some mistakes while Serzh Sargsyan handled
everything as usual. Nothing new happened, and now Raffi Hovannisian
will try to continue the movement in the regions but will not succeed,
instead he should have focused on the mayoral election. I think the
hunger strike and demonstrations were exaggerations. We saw that these
strategic steps were meaningless, and today Serzh Sargsyan is at the
top of government. The opposition should have united and formed one
front against Taron Margaryan to win. Local elections in Yerevan are
held three months after the presidential election which means that
dynamics and movement must continue. I hope that this movement must
be organized and continued.
The opposition did not unite for this election? Are the results
thus predictable?
It is important who the candidates are. The government has nominated
Taron Margaryan, the opposition candidates are four representing
the ARF, Heritage, Congress and PAP. The government will certainly
win under the present electoral system. It is important that all the
opposition forces unite, separately they will lose. Today the issue
is not in Serzh Sargsyan but in the opposition forces.
In your opinion, why does the opposition always fail in independent
Armenia?
There are several reasons. First, the idea, the concept of opposition
is not well-established in the post-Soviet states. There is no
tradition and culture of having opposition. Second, the person who
leads the opposition. All the parties are weakened by intolerance,
envy towards leaders. Third, the government is guided by the principle
"divide to rule", knowing that all the opposition parties have
been government previously. Last but not least, it is the lack of
confidence, lack of social agreement between the government and the
society, as well as between the opposition and the society. People
will doubt the words and actions of both government and opposition
unless there is confidence.
People would have changed their attitude had the opposition forces -
PAP, Congress, ARF and Heritage - treated all the issues seriously,
created the minimal platform. Opposition forces will not succeed
unless they come up with a joint strategy.
In what case would the regime give up?
The best option is the change of government by elections when another
force receives majority of votes. The worst example is 1998 when Levon
Ter-Petrosyan resigned, and Robert Kocharyan became president. In fact,
the Armenians are not used to change of government, there is no such
practice as quiet change of government. When a political force lacks
sense of responsibility, people think it is not serious. We need
political forces which assume responsibility, which are in people,
not like we have now. We know that most of them are in politics
for the sake of their own interests. This is the reality. The lack
of confidence comes from the lessons of history. People know that
history has always seen treacheries, and this mindset will change if
the political forces are guided by their sense of responsibility.
Siranuysh Papyan 16:40 25/04/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/interview/view/29724
From: A. Papazian
Interview with Gaidz Minassian, expert of French Center for Strategic
Studies
The post-electoral developments culminated in April 9, no dialogue
followed. Should unpredictable results be expected in the mayoral
election of May 5?
There happened what was expected. Raffi Hovannisian lost.
Unfortunately, he made some mistakes while Serzh Sargsyan handled
everything as usual. Nothing new happened, and now Raffi Hovannisian
will try to continue the movement in the regions but will not succeed,
instead he should have focused on the mayoral election. I think the
hunger strike and demonstrations were exaggerations. We saw that these
strategic steps were meaningless, and today Serzh Sargsyan is at the
top of government. The opposition should have united and formed one
front against Taron Margaryan to win. Local elections in Yerevan are
held three months after the presidential election which means that
dynamics and movement must continue. I hope that this movement must
be organized and continued.
The opposition did not unite for this election? Are the results
thus predictable?
It is important who the candidates are. The government has nominated
Taron Margaryan, the opposition candidates are four representing
the ARF, Heritage, Congress and PAP. The government will certainly
win under the present electoral system. It is important that all the
opposition forces unite, separately they will lose. Today the issue
is not in Serzh Sargsyan but in the opposition forces.
In your opinion, why does the opposition always fail in independent
Armenia?
There are several reasons. First, the idea, the concept of opposition
is not well-established in the post-Soviet states. There is no
tradition and culture of having opposition. Second, the person who
leads the opposition. All the parties are weakened by intolerance,
envy towards leaders. Third, the government is guided by the principle
"divide to rule", knowing that all the opposition parties have
been government previously. Last but not least, it is the lack of
confidence, lack of social agreement between the government and the
society, as well as between the opposition and the society. People
will doubt the words and actions of both government and opposition
unless there is confidence.
People would have changed their attitude had the opposition forces -
PAP, Congress, ARF and Heritage - treated all the issues seriously,
created the minimal platform. Opposition forces will not succeed
unless they come up with a joint strategy.
In what case would the regime give up?
The best option is the change of government by elections when another
force receives majority of votes. The worst example is 1998 when Levon
Ter-Petrosyan resigned, and Robert Kocharyan became president. In fact,
the Armenians are not used to change of government, there is no such
practice as quiet change of government. When a political force lacks
sense of responsibility, people think it is not serious. We need
political forces which assume responsibility, which are in people,
not like we have now. We know that most of them are in politics
for the sake of their own interests. This is the reality. The lack
of confidence comes from the lessons of history. People know that
history has always seen treacheries, and this mindset will change if
the political forces are guided by their sense of responsibility.
Siranuysh Papyan 16:40 25/04/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/interview/view/29724
From: A. Papazian