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NATURE ABHORS A VACUUM...
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Thursday, April 25, 08:55
The recent reports in the Azeri mass media say that Azerbaijan has
suspended all its negotiations with Russia on the purchase of new
weaponry and military equipment. Actually, these reports might seem to
be consistent given Moscow's recent refusal to lease the Gabala radar
station because of the unreasonably high price recently fixed by Baku
- 300 mln USD against the former 7 mln USD. However, after all Azeri
media almost simultaneously disseminated the information that European
producers had unexpectedly softened the terms of weaponry sale to
the South Caucasus countries this started resembling stove-piping.
Baku-based sources say that Azerbaijan has refused to buy new Russian
rescue helicopters, T-90S battle tanks, BMPT armor and air defense
missile systems. To note, over the past 5 years Azerbaijan ordered
Russian arms and military equipment worth a total of over 1.7 mln USD.
Given that Moscow responds to everything concerning military and
technical cooperation with particular sensitivity, the blow has
actually hit the target. However, Baku did not take into account
the fact that even in case of real refusal from new types of Russian
weaponry, Azerbaijan will keep on using the Soviet types of military
equipment and there is no escaping. Consequently, Baku's strategists
seeking to gain Moscow's concessions in the bilateral relations, this
being very important in the context of the Karabakh peace process,
are doomed to purchase at least spare parts in Russia. And the
"ROSOBORONEXPORT" Federal State Unitary Enterprise realizes this
perfectly.
It appears that the Azeri mass media understood the situation quite
well. This is why they disseminated the second piece of information
that in 2013 France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands,
Poland and Croatia softened the obstacles in the way of selling
weaponry to the South Caucasus countries. It is stated that earlier
the military equipment and arms were supplied to the South Caucasus
countries by Finland, Switzerland, Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria, Czech
Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary, whereas the UK, Norway,
and Germany unambiguously stated that they would not supply weaponry
to the South Caucasus until the local conflicts are settled. The
Azeri media do not clarify the causes of such sudden "softening"
for obvious reasons.
To note, due to its petroleum revenues, Azerbaijan increased its
exponential defense spending from 160 mln USD in 2003 to forecasted 3.6
bln USD in 2013. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
(SIPRI) says that in 2012 alone Azerbaijan spent on defense more than
any other country, having increased the expenses by 88%.
Thus, it is easy to guess for which of the South Caucasus countries
Europe might "soften" the terms of weaponry sale all of a sudden. By
comparing and analyzing the two abovementioned pieces of information,
one can arrive at the conclusion that Baku has followed the best
traditions of clumsy diplomacy and has once again decided to
demonstrate to Moscow its desire to deprive Rosoboronexport of orders.
And even if the two pieces of information are true, which may just as
well be doubtful, the desire of Aliyev's entourage to exert pressure
on Moscow is here to stay. In this case the content of Russia's reply
will directly depend on who will give that reply: the so-called "great
power nationalists" who advocate the geopolitical interests of Russia
at all hazards on this side of the Caucasus Mountain Range or the
"Serdyukovs" who are ready to sell these interests for Aliyev's money
and even for black caviar. In the former case Aliyev will be reminded
of his intractability in Kazan in 2011, his overtures to the West,
the problems on the north and south borders, and his open desire
to sell energy resources bypassing Russia. In the latter case "the
problem will be settled on the basis of observance of the bilateral
interests" with the expected results for the real interests of Russia.
Nevertheless, nature abhors a vacuum... Actually, nothing prevents
Baku, which conducts its policy of military cooperation with 12 NATO
member countries, as well as Pakistan, Croatia, Columbia, Kazakhstan,
China, Malaysia, Uzbekistan, Korea, Israel, Austria, Ukraine, Qatar
and Bahrain, from refocusing its military relations on these countries.
The fact that the ruling dynastic regime in Azerbaijan has not taken
that step so far speaks volumes. It demonstrates, first of all, the
vulnerability of the regime and Azerbaijan itself, which was aptly
characterized as a Colossus with Feet of Clay by a European expert.
Baku understands the nuances of the situation and has nothing to
do but play with Russia via the media that disseminate misleading
information, which meets the best traditions of Aliyev's propaganda.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Thursday, April 25, 08:55
The recent reports in the Azeri mass media say that Azerbaijan has
suspended all its negotiations with Russia on the purchase of new
weaponry and military equipment. Actually, these reports might seem to
be consistent given Moscow's recent refusal to lease the Gabala radar
station because of the unreasonably high price recently fixed by Baku
- 300 mln USD against the former 7 mln USD. However, after all Azeri
media almost simultaneously disseminated the information that European
producers had unexpectedly softened the terms of weaponry sale to
the South Caucasus countries this started resembling stove-piping.
Baku-based sources say that Azerbaijan has refused to buy new Russian
rescue helicopters, T-90S battle tanks, BMPT armor and air defense
missile systems. To note, over the past 5 years Azerbaijan ordered
Russian arms and military equipment worth a total of over 1.7 mln USD.
Given that Moscow responds to everything concerning military and
technical cooperation with particular sensitivity, the blow has
actually hit the target. However, Baku did not take into account
the fact that even in case of real refusal from new types of Russian
weaponry, Azerbaijan will keep on using the Soviet types of military
equipment and there is no escaping. Consequently, Baku's strategists
seeking to gain Moscow's concessions in the bilateral relations, this
being very important in the context of the Karabakh peace process,
are doomed to purchase at least spare parts in Russia. And the
"ROSOBORONEXPORT" Federal State Unitary Enterprise realizes this
perfectly.
It appears that the Azeri mass media understood the situation quite
well. This is why they disseminated the second piece of information
that in 2013 France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands,
Poland and Croatia softened the obstacles in the way of selling
weaponry to the South Caucasus countries. It is stated that earlier
the military equipment and arms were supplied to the South Caucasus
countries by Finland, Switzerland, Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria, Czech
Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary, whereas the UK, Norway,
and Germany unambiguously stated that they would not supply weaponry
to the South Caucasus until the local conflicts are settled. The
Azeri media do not clarify the causes of such sudden "softening"
for obvious reasons.
To note, due to its petroleum revenues, Azerbaijan increased its
exponential defense spending from 160 mln USD in 2003 to forecasted 3.6
bln USD in 2013. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
(SIPRI) says that in 2012 alone Azerbaijan spent on defense more than
any other country, having increased the expenses by 88%.
Thus, it is easy to guess for which of the South Caucasus countries
Europe might "soften" the terms of weaponry sale all of a sudden. By
comparing and analyzing the two abovementioned pieces of information,
one can arrive at the conclusion that Baku has followed the best
traditions of clumsy diplomacy and has once again decided to
demonstrate to Moscow its desire to deprive Rosoboronexport of orders.
And even if the two pieces of information are true, which may just as
well be doubtful, the desire of Aliyev's entourage to exert pressure
on Moscow is here to stay. In this case the content of Russia's reply
will directly depend on who will give that reply: the so-called "great
power nationalists" who advocate the geopolitical interests of Russia
at all hazards on this side of the Caucasus Mountain Range or the
"Serdyukovs" who are ready to sell these interests for Aliyev's money
and even for black caviar. In the former case Aliyev will be reminded
of his intractability in Kazan in 2011, his overtures to the West,
the problems on the north and south borders, and his open desire
to sell energy resources bypassing Russia. In the latter case "the
problem will be settled on the basis of observance of the bilateral
interests" with the expected results for the real interests of Russia.
Nevertheless, nature abhors a vacuum... Actually, nothing prevents
Baku, which conducts its policy of military cooperation with 12 NATO
member countries, as well as Pakistan, Croatia, Columbia, Kazakhstan,
China, Malaysia, Uzbekistan, Korea, Israel, Austria, Ukraine, Qatar
and Bahrain, from refocusing its military relations on these countries.
The fact that the ruling dynastic regime in Azerbaijan has not taken
that step so far speaks volumes. It demonstrates, first of all, the
vulnerability of the regime and Azerbaijan itself, which was aptly
characterized as a Colossus with Feet of Clay by a European expert.
Baku understands the nuances of the situation and has nothing to
do but play with Russia via the media that disseminate misleading
information, which meets the best traditions of Aliyev's propaganda.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress