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KARS-AKHLKALAKI-TBILISI RAILWAY AND ITS REGIONAL PROSPECTS
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=7042
25.04.2013
Sevak Sarukhanyan
Deputy Director of `Noravank' Foundation;
Ph.D. in Political Studies
The authorities of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey plan to complete
building of Kars-Akhlkalaki-Tbilisi railway by the end of 2013 and
this new transportion hub will be put into commission on January 1,
2014.
The project received a negative evaluation on behalf of the Armenian
analytical community from the very first day, which was substantiated
by several points of view:
The implementation of the project has political subtext and it is
directed to the strengthening of the blockade of the Republic of
Armenia.
Building and even construction works of the railway may bring to the
emerging of the Turkish and Azerbaijani communities in Javakhk. It is
supposed that Azerbaijanis and Turks will be involved in the building
of the railway and they may take their chance and settle in Javakhk.
The project may suspend opening of the Armenian-Turkish border because
one of its main economic components should be Kars-Gyumri railway.
All the forecasts made in these directions for recent 3-4 years either
have not proved true or proved true only partially.
In reality Kars-Akhlkalaki-Tbilisi railway has never deepened the
isolation of Armenia because it is built for the solution of one
primary economic problem - to develop Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey
freight traffic and commodity turnover infrastructure in which Armenia
has never been involved. In this aspect there is absolutely no
difference for Yerevan how the freight traffic from Azerbaijan to
Turkey and vice-versa will be arranged. The railway does not deprive
Armenia of any transportation significance as it connects the
economies and countries which cooperation is implemented without
Armenia's participation.
Though building of the railway is mainly financed by Azerbaijan, the
Azerbaijanis are involved in the project on the professional level.
Building works on the territory of Javakhk is carried out by the
Georgians and most of the workers are Georgians, so there is no
penetration of the Turks and Azerbaijanis to Javakhk.
As for the influence of the project on the prospect of rectification
of Armenia-Turkey relations, cause-and-effect approaches are confused
here. Kars-Gyumri railway has never been considered a main cause which
could or can make Armenian or Turkish parties make concessions in
political issues and give an economic substantiation to impendence of
opening of the border and rectification of the relations. It is
obvious that the issue of settlement of the Armenian-Turkish problems
is first of all in political plane and that is why it cannot be
settled on the assumption of economic expediency. Eventually,
Kars-Akhlkalaki railway is not of great significance because commodity
turnover with Armenia is not of that big financial and economic
importance for Turkey. An finally, putting into service
Kars-Akhlkalaki railway does not imply disappearance or abolishment of
Kars-Gyumri railway which in its turn cannot prevent Yerevan and
Ankara from using it after the rectification of the relations,
meanwhile such prospect seems to be impossible taking into
consideration Turkey's aggressive rhetoric and preconditions they put
forward.
At the same time it should be underlined that Kars-Akhlkalaki-Tbilisi
railway, most probably, may play rather important regional role. First
of all it is referred to the creation of a new transportation hub
between Central Asia and Europe. By connecting Turkish railways with
Baku, this railway, in fact, may create a good opportunity for the
Central Asian countries for gaining access to the international
market: the opportunity which would allow the Central Asian countries
to avoid a necessity of going through the Russian territory and using
Russian railways.
Hence, this is only theoretical, or rather technical opportunity,
which practical use can face a number of serious challenges depending
on the political and economic developments in Central Asia. What is
meant here is first of all a composition of the economies of the
Central Asian countries which are based on the export of oil and gas.
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which are the biggest economies in the
Central Asia, have only one item of export - hydrocarbons. First of
all it is oil, and the second is natural gas. In both of this
directions Turkey-Azerbaijan railway hub can be of no significance,
because there are several active facilities for exporting Kazakh oil -
firstly these are the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and Atasu-Alashanku
(Kazakhstan-China) oil pipelines. However it the future
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline may appear among these pipelines and
it, taking into consideration reduction of the oil production in
Azerbaijan, may serve mainly for the export of Kazakh oil. As for gas,
the railway cannot serve for the gas export.
But even if we assume that potential of the industrial production will
grow in Kazakhstan, which can come true in case of implementation of
N.Nazarbayev's economic development strategy, it does not mean that
production of the Kazakh industry will be exported by means of
Azerbaijan-Turkey railway. It has several main reasons from two can be
distinguished:
1. The Kazakh economy is gradually getting more connected with China -
in 2012 the commodity turnover between two countries went beyond $20
billion and implementation of new industrial projects will make the
markets and economies of these two countries even closer.
2. Kazakhstan is a member of Customs Union and together with Russia
and Belarus it eagerly works over the project of creation of the
Eurasian Union. Both Customs Union and Eurasian Union make
transportation through the Russian territory easier, which questions
the feasibility of using South Caucasus railways.
All these problems should also be supplemented by the influence of the
regional instability on the efficiency and attractiveness of the
transport projects. The railway going through Russian geographically
does not cut any confrontation areas and the same cannot be said about
the South Caucasus - Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation, South Ossetia
and Abkhazia problems, Kurdish factor in Turkey, growing
contradictions and conflicts in the Middle East.
Thus, to the best of our belief, Kars-Akhlkalaki-Tbilisi railway
cannot seriously affect the security of the Republic of Armenia. Even
more, it can have somehow positive influence on the social and
economic life in Akhlkalaki, taking into consideration the fact that
Akhlkalaki can become Georgia's most important railway and logistical
hub.
`Globus' analytical journal, #4, 2013
Another materials of author
QAZVIN-RASHT-ASTARA OR IRAN-ARMENIA? [21.02.2013]
IRAN AND SANCTIONS[10.12.2012]
SIGNIFICANCE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY FOR ARMENIA [27.09.2012]
ON THE REGIONAL POLICY OF IRAN[28.06.2012]
TURKISH FACTOR IN `LEVIATHAN' AND `APHRODITE' ENERGY `WARS'[03.05.2012]
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN AND POSSIBLE IRAN-US COLLISION[22.03.2012]
IRAN AND DEVELOPMENTS IN SYRIA[26.01.2012]
ON REGIONAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS[05.12.2011]
IRAN: DOMESTIC POLITICAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS[26.09.2011]
POLITICAL PROCESSES IN IRAN: IDEOLOGICAL STRUGGLE [21.07.2011]
From: A. Papazian
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=7042
25.04.2013
Sevak Sarukhanyan
Deputy Director of `Noravank' Foundation;
Ph.D. in Political Studies
The authorities of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey plan to complete
building of Kars-Akhlkalaki-Tbilisi railway by the end of 2013 and
this new transportion hub will be put into commission on January 1,
2014.
The project received a negative evaluation on behalf of the Armenian
analytical community from the very first day, which was substantiated
by several points of view:
The implementation of the project has political subtext and it is
directed to the strengthening of the blockade of the Republic of
Armenia.
Building and even construction works of the railway may bring to the
emerging of the Turkish and Azerbaijani communities in Javakhk. It is
supposed that Azerbaijanis and Turks will be involved in the building
of the railway and they may take their chance and settle in Javakhk.
The project may suspend opening of the Armenian-Turkish border because
one of its main economic components should be Kars-Gyumri railway.
All the forecasts made in these directions for recent 3-4 years either
have not proved true or proved true only partially.
In reality Kars-Akhlkalaki-Tbilisi railway has never deepened the
isolation of Armenia because it is built for the solution of one
primary economic problem - to develop Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey
freight traffic and commodity turnover infrastructure in which Armenia
has never been involved. In this aspect there is absolutely no
difference for Yerevan how the freight traffic from Azerbaijan to
Turkey and vice-versa will be arranged. The railway does not deprive
Armenia of any transportation significance as it connects the
economies and countries which cooperation is implemented without
Armenia's participation.
Though building of the railway is mainly financed by Azerbaijan, the
Azerbaijanis are involved in the project on the professional level.
Building works on the territory of Javakhk is carried out by the
Georgians and most of the workers are Georgians, so there is no
penetration of the Turks and Azerbaijanis to Javakhk.
As for the influence of the project on the prospect of rectification
of Armenia-Turkey relations, cause-and-effect approaches are confused
here. Kars-Gyumri railway has never been considered a main cause which
could or can make Armenian or Turkish parties make concessions in
political issues and give an economic substantiation to impendence of
opening of the border and rectification of the relations. It is
obvious that the issue of settlement of the Armenian-Turkish problems
is first of all in political plane and that is why it cannot be
settled on the assumption of economic expediency. Eventually,
Kars-Akhlkalaki railway is not of great significance because commodity
turnover with Armenia is not of that big financial and economic
importance for Turkey. An finally, putting into service
Kars-Akhlkalaki railway does not imply disappearance or abolishment of
Kars-Gyumri railway which in its turn cannot prevent Yerevan and
Ankara from using it after the rectification of the relations,
meanwhile such prospect seems to be impossible taking into
consideration Turkey's aggressive rhetoric and preconditions they put
forward.
At the same time it should be underlined that Kars-Akhlkalaki-Tbilisi
railway, most probably, may play rather important regional role. First
of all it is referred to the creation of a new transportation hub
between Central Asia and Europe. By connecting Turkish railways with
Baku, this railway, in fact, may create a good opportunity for the
Central Asian countries for gaining access to the international
market: the opportunity which would allow the Central Asian countries
to avoid a necessity of going through the Russian territory and using
Russian railways.
Hence, this is only theoretical, or rather technical opportunity,
which practical use can face a number of serious challenges depending
on the political and economic developments in Central Asia. What is
meant here is first of all a composition of the economies of the
Central Asian countries which are based on the export of oil and gas.
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which are the biggest economies in the
Central Asia, have only one item of export - hydrocarbons. First of
all it is oil, and the second is natural gas. In both of this
directions Turkey-Azerbaijan railway hub can be of no significance,
because there are several active facilities for exporting Kazakh oil -
firstly these are the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and Atasu-Alashanku
(Kazakhstan-China) oil pipelines. However it the future
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline may appear among these pipelines and
it, taking into consideration reduction of the oil production in
Azerbaijan, may serve mainly for the export of Kazakh oil. As for gas,
the railway cannot serve for the gas export.
But even if we assume that potential of the industrial production will
grow in Kazakhstan, which can come true in case of implementation of
N.Nazarbayev's economic development strategy, it does not mean that
production of the Kazakh industry will be exported by means of
Azerbaijan-Turkey railway. It has several main reasons from two can be
distinguished:
1. The Kazakh economy is gradually getting more connected with China -
in 2012 the commodity turnover between two countries went beyond $20
billion and implementation of new industrial projects will make the
markets and economies of these two countries even closer.
2. Kazakhstan is a member of Customs Union and together with Russia
and Belarus it eagerly works over the project of creation of the
Eurasian Union. Both Customs Union and Eurasian Union make
transportation through the Russian territory easier, which questions
the feasibility of using South Caucasus railways.
All these problems should also be supplemented by the influence of the
regional instability on the efficiency and attractiveness of the
transport projects. The railway going through Russian geographically
does not cut any confrontation areas and the same cannot be said about
the South Caucasus - Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation, South Ossetia
and Abkhazia problems, Kurdish factor in Turkey, growing
contradictions and conflicts in the Middle East.
Thus, to the best of our belief, Kars-Akhlkalaki-Tbilisi railway
cannot seriously affect the security of the Republic of Armenia. Even
more, it can have somehow positive influence on the social and
economic life in Akhlkalaki, taking into consideration the fact that
Akhlkalaki can become Georgia's most important railway and logistical
hub.
`Globus' analytical journal, #4, 2013
Another materials of author
QAZVIN-RASHT-ASTARA OR IRAN-ARMENIA? [21.02.2013]
IRAN AND SANCTIONS[10.12.2012]
SIGNIFICANCE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY FOR ARMENIA [27.09.2012]
ON THE REGIONAL POLICY OF IRAN[28.06.2012]
TURKISH FACTOR IN `LEVIATHAN' AND `APHRODITE' ENERGY `WARS'[03.05.2012]
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN AND POSSIBLE IRAN-US COLLISION[22.03.2012]
IRAN AND DEVELOPMENTS IN SYRIA[26.01.2012]
ON REGIONAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS[05.12.2011]
IRAN: DOMESTIC POLITICAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS[26.09.2011]
POLITICAL PROCESSES IN IRAN: IDEOLOGICAL STRUGGLE [21.07.2011]
From: A. Papazian