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Why Has Putin Chosen To Visit Baku? - Armenian Analyst On Russian Le

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  • Why Has Putin Chosen To Visit Baku? - Armenian Analyst On Russian Le

    WHY HAS PUTIN CHOSEN TO VISIT BAKU? - ARMENIAN ANALYST ON RUSSIAN LEADER'S UPCOMING TOUR

    13:02 13.08.13

    In an interview with Tert.am, the political analyst Alexander
    Iskandaryan has talked of Russian President Vladimir Putin's scheduled
    trip to Baku. The expert has explained the reasons behind the Russian
    leader's choice of country and the timing of the visit. He also
    addresses the upcoming presidential election in Azerbaijan.

    Mr. Iskandaryan, why do you think Vladimir Putin has chosen Azerbaijan
    as his first visit destination since being elected a president?

    Notably enough, the visit is quite impressive in terms of the Russian
    flotilla's presence and the accompaniment of a big delegation.

    Vladimir Putin is visiting Azerbaijan en route to Iran. As for the
    context, Rosneft director Mr [Igor] Sechin was in Azerbaijan quite
    recently, and the possibilities of working in Azerbaijan were very
    probably discussed [in the course of the visit].

    As the delegation includes the chief negotiator on the
    Russian-Azerbaijani affairs, representatives of the Russian Ministry
    of Emergency Situations, the Transport Ministry and the Ministry
    of Defense, wide-profile agreements are going to be discussed. It's
    quite possible that the reported orders for acquiring flotilla will
    be realized. It is necessary to keep in mind that the military base
    on the Turkmenbashi port - the opposite side of the Caspian Sea -
    will be completed in 2015.

    In more general terms, there are two reasons making the visit
    necessary, especially now. The first, as I said, is the trip en route
    to Iran. Secondly, the Russian-Azerbaijani relations faced tensions in
    the recent years due to the Azerbaijani radar stations in Gabala. So
    there is a necessity to improve them.

    It is also important to remember that Azerbaijan is conducting
    [presidential] election; in this respect too, the visit has certain
    components. The opposition in Azerbaijan has managed to unite around
    Roustam Ibrahimbekov, the opposition leader, and the fact is being
    perceived as a Russian project.

    Even if this isn't absolutely true, Ibrahimbekov is definitely a
    Russian project in financial terms. Besides, Mr Ibrahimbekov is
    a Russian citizen who has asked the Russian president to revoke
    his Russian citizenship through rapid procedures because under the
    Azerbaijani Constitution, citizens of other countries cannot nominate
    themselves as candidates. And now Vladimir Putin can either revoke
    his citizenship or choose not to do so.

    The improvement of the Russian-Azerbaijani bilateral relations is
    now on the agenda, the fact having been also confirmed by the Russian
    presidential staff. Do you think the relations are likely to improve to
    an extent to develop into a strategic [alliance] against the backdrop
    of the Russian-Armenian relations which are said to be deteriorating
    day by day?

    Azerbaijan permanently collaborates with Russia in the arms supply
    acquisition sector. I think Russia remains the main weapon supplier
    for the countries on the post-Soviet area, with the exception of
    those which are now NATO member states. As for Azerbaijan proper, it
    purchases things from Ukraine and Israel as well. Russia, I repeat,
    has been selling weapons to Azerbaijan since the very first years since
    the country's gaining independence. The same is the true in relation to
    Armenia and other countries. I don't think it is to Russia's advantage
    to disturb the balance in the South Caucasus. There are two things
    Russia doesn't need in the South Caucasus: the settlement of the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and a renewal of war.

    Also it is important to keep in mind [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey]
    Lavrov's statement on the difficulty to maintain the status quo.

    I am a political analyst familiar with hundreds of statement made by
    different government bodies. And let me note that the important thing
    in any statement is not what it says but where it is said and to whom,
    with what purpose and in what circumstances.

    Yes, things of the kind are said, but they have to be considered within
    the general system of the information flow. The policies Russia has
    been pursuing in the past 25 years remain to same.

    There are six candidates [running for presidency] together with Ilham
    Aliyev? Do you think the elections in Azerbaijan will be held the same
    way as they have always been? And do you find the other candidates'
    presence a 'mob show', as has been in Armenia if we believe the
    radical opposition?

    The situation in Armenia is not absolutely similar to that in
    Azerbaijan. We do not have sultanates; nor do we have any problems
    in terms of the hereditary transfer of power. Presidents here are
    not elected for the third time after serving their second term.

    Presidential elections in Armenia face a real competition. It's a
    different matter that people are probably weak or not powerful enough
    to hold victory.

    After all the March events following the 2008 presidential election
    were not a show or a circus spectacle. They were a proof of a political
    participation, be it though a very bad and unpleasant one.

    The 40-percent votes garnered by [opposition candidate] Raffi
    Hovhannisian in the recent presidential poll also testified to that.

    The fact he didn't manage to benefit from the results of a real
    competition doesn't mean it [the competition] didn't exist.

    It is, of course, difficult to compare Armenia with Switzerland or
    France, but it shouldn't be compared to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan,
    Azerbaijan, Russia and Korea either.

    Hence, Aliyev will be the president. So why is the nominees' number
    six? He wanted that way. If he wanted 40, there would be 40. Mr.

    Ibrahimbekov is the only exception for the simple reason he doesn't
    reside in Azerbaijan. The situation would be different if he did. And
    I think Putin is now visiting Azerbaijan probably to prevent Mr
    Ibrahimbekov from being registered as a candidate.

    Should Aliyev and Putin fail to reach an agreement, Mr Ibrahimbekov
    will not be registered. But if the developments take a different turn
    to make the registration possible, they will have to beat the guys
    after the election.

    Any reaction by the world community will depend on that. But the
    Azerbaijani elections will on average be declared neither good nor bad.

    Observers will write in future that they didn't see any competitiveness
    in Azerbaijan. But repeating myself, I have to say again that
    no one expects elections in Azerbaijan to be similar to those in
    France. Let's keep in mind that Azerbaijan is not a member of the
    World Trade Organization, though it is involved in the [EU] Eastern
    Partnership project. But it cannot conduct negotiations with the
    EU over the Association Agreement. That is why Azerbaijan is what
    it is. After all, Azerbaijan is rated as dictatorship in different
    rankings. That's something which, in general, is right.

    http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/08/13/iskandaryan/

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