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IN BAKU, PUTIN BRINGS GUNBOATS ALONG WITH DIPLOMACY
EurasiaNet.org
Aug 14 2013
August 14, 2013 - 6:46pm, by Joshua Kucera
Russian President Vladimir Putin led a high-powered delegation to Baku
this week, and security issues seemed to be high on the agenda, leading
to renewed speculation about whether the traditional geopolitical
allegiances in the South Caucasus may or may not be shifting.
The fact that the delegation included such a large number of
heavyweights spoke to the significance of the visit. In addition to
Putin, it included Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Defense Minister
Sergey Shoigu, Energy Minister Alexander Novak and the heads of
Russia's biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. Also along for
the visit were some ships from Russia's Caspian Flotilla and the
fleet's commander, Vice Admiral Sergey Alekminsky. Putin's remarks
after his meeting with Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev focused
mainly on economics and business ties, but also touched on security:
During our talks we paid a great deal of attention to resolving
problems in the Caspian region. We are interested in seeing this region
become one in which peace and cooperation reign. There are still many
unresolved issues here, relating to security, border delimitation,
conserving biological diversity in the Caspian Sea and so on. We have
a vested interest in resolving all these problems, naturally taking
into account the interests of all littoral states.
It is symbolic that our talks coincide with a friendly visit of a
detachment of the Russian Caspian Flotilla to Baku. The Dagestan
missile ship and the Volgodonsk small artillery ship are among the
vessels. At the end of 2013 Azerbaijani sailors plan to make a return
visit to Astrakhan.
Naturally, during our talks we touched on current international issues,
including the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. I would like to emphasise that
Russia is actively facilitating the conflict's accelerated settlement,
which is only possible through political means.
For his part, Aliyev noted that the "defense industry collaboration"
between Azerbaijan and Russia totals $4 billion and continues to grow,
though it's not clear what that figure represents and Azerbaijan
has been known to exaggerate the scale of its military activity for
PR purposes.
But what the two men discussed when the cameras were off was the
subject of much curiosity in Moscow, Baku and of course Yerevan,
as Armenians wondered what all this meant for them. While Armenia is
a close ally of Russia, hosting a Russian military base and being a
loyal member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, there
has been some concern between the two partners, as Armenia is being
wooed by the European Union and Russia has been selling some big-ticket
military hardware to Azerbaijan, which would likely use the equipment
against Armenia.
Naturally, much speculation about the visit centered around
Azerbaijan's upcoming presidential elections, since the main opposition
candidate, Rustam Ibraghimbekov, lives in Russia and will depend on
Russian governmental help to get his paperwork in order to run. Might
Russia be dangling Ibraghimbekov's fate in front of Baku for some
sort of concession in foreign policy? It certainly seems possible.
While Russia billed its naval deployment to Baku as a "friendly visit,"
it's not clear that Aliyev saw it that way. Azerbaijan is developing
its navy in large part because it fears Russia's ability to bully
it militarily. So Azerbaijan is caught in the same dilemma as many
post-Soviet states, where military "cooperation" with Russia serves
to bind those countries' foreign policies closer to the Kremlin's.
Rasim Musabekov, a member of parliament and political analyst, told
reporters that one aim of Putin's visit was to give Baku a warning not
to cooperate too closely with the U.S. Baku has become a significant
logistics center for the U.S. shipping military equipment in and out
of Afghanistan, a situation that apparently makes Russia uncomfortable,
Musabekov said:
As for the inclusion of the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu in the
delegation, according to the analyst, "there are questions in the
military sphere which should be discussed.
"This is not just military-technical cooperation. It's very important
to discuss questions which can affect Azerbaijan. For example, the
situation in the Caspian, where military activity is increasing, there
is the context of Iran, developing events in the Middle East, plus
the most important -- settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict,"
Musabekov told journalists.
According to him, Russia cannot but have a certain wariness toward
Baku becoming an important logistics center, through which Afghanistan
transit is conducted. For that reason, Moscow needs a strong guarantee
that American armed forces will not appear here [in Baku] tomorrow.
As for Armenia, the consensus was that the Kremlin seemed to be giving
Yerevan a warning about its growing closeness with the European Union.
But it could also have been the same warning to Baku, for its military
cooperation with the U.S., noted Tom de Waal:
There was no mention of the Gabala radar station, which the Russians
were forced to abandon last year. The very fact of the Putin visit
meant that Russia considered that episode closed. Putin uttered
only a one-line reference to resolution of the Karabakh conflict,
which for a while was the Number One foreign policy initiative of
his predecessor, Dmitry Medvedev-making it obvious once again that
this is an issue that does not especially interest him....
A few other important words did not get uttered in the meetings.
One was "America." The very fact of a Russian head of state arriving
in Baku with half a dozen ministers in tow reminded the Azerbaijanis
where they should put their priorities. A second was "Armenia." One
reason for the visit, with all its talk of Azerbaijani-Russian
military cooperation, was to make the Armenians nervous and think more
seriously about joining Putin's Customs Union. (One prominent face
in the Russian delegation was the head of Russia's defense export
company Rosoboronexport, Anatoly Isaykin. Aliev said publicly that
military cooperation with Russia is worth four billion dollars.)
So to sum up, it's hard to know what to make of all this. It remains
unclear whether we are seeing a tectonic shift underway in the
geopolitics of the South Caucasus, or (excuse the mixed metaphor)
whether this choppiness on the surface hides a deep, stable sea
underneath.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67392
EurasiaNet.org
Aug 14 2013
August 14, 2013 - 6:46pm, by Joshua Kucera
Russian President Vladimir Putin led a high-powered delegation to Baku
this week, and security issues seemed to be high on the agenda, leading
to renewed speculation about whether the traditional geopolitical
allegiances in the South Caucasus may or may not be shifting.
The fact that the delegation included such a large number of
heavyweights spoke to the significance of the visit. In addition to
Putin, it included Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Defense Minister
Sergey Shoigu, Energy Minister Alexander Novak and the heads of
Russia's biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. Also along for
the visit were some ships from Russia's Caspian Flotilla and the
fleet's commander, Vice Admiral Sergey Alekminsky. Putin's remarks
after his meeting with Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev focused
mainly on economics and business ties, but also touched on security:
During our talks we paid a great deal of attention to resolving
problems in the Caspian region. We are interested in seeing this region
become one in which peace and cooperation reign. There are still many
unresolved issues here, relating to security, border delimitation,
conserving biological diversity in the Caspian Sea and so on. We have
a vested interest in resolving all these problems, naturally taking
into account the interests of all littoral states.
It is symbolic that our talks coincide with a friendly visit of a
detachment of the Russian Caspian Flotilla to Baku. The Dagestan
missile ship and the Volgodonsk small artillery ship are among the
vessels. At the end of 2013 Azerbaijani sailors plan to make a return
visit to Astrakhan.
Naturally, during our talks we touched on current international issues,
including the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. I would like to emphasise that
Russia is actively facilitating the conflict's accelerated settlement,
which is only possible through political means.
For his part, Aliyev noted that the "defense industry collaboration"
between Azerbaijan and Russia totals $4 billion and continues to grow,
though it's not clear what that figure represents and Azerbaijan
has been known to exaggerate the scale of its military activity for
PR purposes.
But what the two men discussed when the cameras were off was the
subject of much curiosity in Moscow, Baku and of course Yerevan,
as Armenians wondered what all this meant for them. While Armenia is
a close ally of Russia, hosting a Russian military base and being a
loyal member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, there
has been some concern between the two partners, as Armenia is being
wooed by the European Union and Russia has been selling some big-ticket
military hardware to Azerbaijan, which would likely use the equipment
against Armenia.
Naturally, much speculation about the visit centered around
Azerbaijan's upcoming presidential elections, since the main opposition
candidate, Rustam Ibraghimbekov, lives in Russia and will depend on
Russian governmental help to get his paperwork in order to run. Might
Russia be dangling Ibraghimbekov's fate in front of Baku for some
sort of concession in foreign policy? It certainly seems possible.
While Russia billed its naval deployment to Baku as a "friendly visit,"
it's not clear that Aliyev saw it that way. Azerbaijan is developing
its navy in large part because it fears Russia's ability to bully
it militarily. So Azerbaijan is caught in the same dilemma as many
post-Soviet states, where military "cooperation" with Russia serves
to bind those countries' foreign policies closer to the Kremlin's.
Rasim Musabekov, a member of parliament and political analyst, told
reporters that one aim of Putin's visit was to give Baku a warning not
to cooperate too closely with the U.S. Baku has become a significant
logistics center for the U.S. shipping military equipment in and out
of Afghanistan, a situation that apparently makes Russia uncomfortable,
Musabekov said:
As for the inclusion of the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu in the
delegation, according to the analyst, "there are questions in the
military sphere which should be discussed.
"This is not just military-technical cooperation. It's very important
to discuss questions which can affect Azerbaijan. For example, the
situation in the Caspian, where military activity is increasing, there
is the context of Iran, developing events in the Middle East, plus
the most important -- settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict,"
Musabekov told journalists.
According to him, Russia cannot but have a certain wariness toward
Baku becoming an important logistics center, through which Afghanistan
transit is conducted. For that reason, Moscow needs a strong guarantee
that American armed forces will not appear here [in Baku] tomorrow.
As for Armenia, the consensus was that the Kremlin seemed to be giving
Yerevan a warning about its growing closeness with the European Union.
But it could also have been the same warning to Baku, for its military
cooperation with the U.S., noted Tom de Waal:
There was no mention of the Gabala radar station, which the Russians
were forced to abandon last year. The very fact of the Putin visit
meant that Russia considered that episode closed. Putin uttered
only a one-line reference to resolution of the Karabakh conflict,
which for a while was the Number One foreign policy initiative of
his predecessor, Dmitry Medvedev-making it obvious once again that
this is an issue that does not especially interest him....
A few other important words did not get uttered in the meetings.
One was "America." The very fact of a Russian head of state arriving
in Baku with half a dozen ministers in tow reminded the Azerbaijanis
where they should put their priorities. A second was "Armenia." One
reason for the visit, with all its talk of Azerbaijani-Russian
military cooperation, was to make the Armenians nervous and think more
seriously about joining Putin's Customs Union. (One prominent face
in the Russian delegation was the head of Russia's defense export
company Rosoboronexport, Anatoly Isaykin. Aliev said publicly that
military cooperation with Russia is worth four billion dollars.)
So to sum up, it's hard to know what to make of all this. It remains
unclear whether we are seeing a tectonic shift underway in the
geopolitics of the South Caucasus, or (excuse the mixed metaphor)
whether this choppiness on the surface hides a deep, stable sea
underneath.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67392