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Armenia's "Turkish Package"
The new ambassador of Switzerland handed his letters of credentials to
Serzh Sargsyan. The president of Armenia discussed with the new
ambassador issues relating to bilateral relations, as well as the
region. Usually the protocol information on the ceremony of handing
letters of credentials of ambassadors does not get so much attention.
But a little more attention would not harm the case of the Swiss
ambassador.
The point is that for the Armenian officials Switzerland is not only a
country of confidential bank accounts but also a mediator to the
Armenian-Turkish normalization which committed to continue its
mediation efforts even after the failure of the football diplomacy.
Nothing seems to be happening in the process of the Armenian-Turkish
normalization since the successful failure of the football diplomacy.
Moreover, some developments brought more tension and ice into the
current relations. There were some recent interesting developments.
Serzh Sargsyan put forth a semi-condition or an indirect condition
before the EU on opening the border with Turkey, announcing that
otherwise the FTA between Armenia and the EU is meaningless.
Afterwards the Armenian prosecutor general announced that the grounds
for claims to Turkey should be prepared. Turkey called such statements
frivolous, and announced that those who put forth territorial claims
to Turkey must go on to think about regional stability and security.
In other words, Turkey threatened Armenia with a war.
Then the deputy foreign minister Shavarsh Kocharyan announced in an
interview that Armenia's attitude to normalization has not changed,
Armenia is committed to a process without preconditions. Apparently,
Yerevan had a problem on the international arena where the Armenian
adventure of irritating Turkey with prosecutor general's territorial
claims was not welcome.
Then there was an incident on the Armenian-Turkish border, a shepherd
trespassed and was killed. According to the so-called Turkish official
version, he crossed the border to retrieve his animals. The Russian
border guards controlling the Armenian border stated that the shepherd
shot at the border guards first and the latter fired in response.
Investigation is underway, no evidence has been presented in support
of any of the versions. The only fact is that shepherds often cross
the border to retrieve their animals but this is the first time when a
shepherd is killed for trespassing.
The discussion of regional issues with the new Swiss ambassador must
have gone beyond the framework of the usual protocol.
In this regard an interesting situation has occurred in the
Armenian-Turkish domain. On the one hand, it is obvious that as the
100th anniversary of the genocide is drawing nearer, the Armenian
issue will get more vociferous, and messages to Turkey will be tenser,
including at the level of the great powers. On the other hand, the
anniversary date cannot be a substantial reason for the great powers
to recognize the genocide. Recognition is determined by the political
situation, past, present and future plans, equally the great powers
will need grounds to explain the absence of recognition of the
genocide on the 100thanniversary unless there is a situation when they
have to recognize the genocide and impose something on Turkey.
At least temporary mending of the Armenian-Turkish normalization
process could serve as grounds. So, it is not ruled out that a
proposal has been made to Yerevan. Certainly, the Armenian government
will put forth its conditions for its consent, trying to upsell its
consent to mending. It is not accidental that despite Turkey's stance
Yerevan keeps on the agenda the Armenian-Turkish protocols containing
dangerous and unacceptable points.
In the meantime, the Azerbaijani press reported that the Turkish
president Abdullah Gul stated during the summit of Turkic-speaking
nations in Gabala that Karabakh is a big issue for Turkic-speaking
nations, and the status quo is unacceptable. At the same time, Gul
extended hope that one day the Turkic-speaking summit will be held in
one of the towns of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Apparently, ahead of the 100th anniversary Turkey has figured out that
attack is the best defense, opting for aggressive and ambitious
statements. Ankara is now cornered, which might be the explanation of
its behavior. Apart from the permanent urgency of the Armenian issue,
the Kurdish issue is emerging, which is Turkey's other Achilles heel.
The issue has gone so far that even official Yerevan dares to send the
delegation of its ministry of economy to meet with the foreign
minister of the government of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Cornered Turkey is getting dangerous. Although, it is hard to tell
which Turkey is more dangerous for Armenia, cornered or
self-confident. So, in any case the key issue for Armenia is to
internationalize the issue of dangers coming from Turkey. Ahead of the
100th anniversary Armenia had better focus on security in modern
developments rather than plunge into territorial claims.
Hakob Badalyan
16:52 17/08/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30721
The new ambassador of Switzerland handed his letters of credentials to
Serzh Sargsyan. The president of Armenia discussed with the new
ambassador issues relating to bilateral relations, as well as the
region. Usually the protocol information on the ceremony of handing
letters of credentials of ambassadors does not get so much attention.
But a little more attention would not harm the case of the Swiss
ambassador.
The point is that for the Armenian officials Switzerland is not only a
country of confidential bank accounts but also a mediator to the
Armenian-Turkish normalization which committed to continue its
mediation efforts even after the failure of the football diplomacy.
Nothing seems to be happening in the process of the Armenian-Turkish
normalization since the successful failure of the football diplomacy.
Moreover, some developments brought more tension and ice into the
current relations. There were some recent interesting developments.
Serzh Sargsyan put forth a semi-condition or an indirect condition
before the EU on opening the border with Turkey, announcing that
otherwise the FTA between Armenia and the EU is meaningless.
Afterwards the Armenian prosecutor general announced that the grounds
for claims to Turkey should be prepared. Turkey called such statements
frivolous, and announced that those who put forth territorial claims
to Turkey must go on to think about regional stability and security.
In other words, Turkey threatened Armenia with a war.
Then the deputy foreign minister Shavarsh Kocharyan announced in an
interview that Armenia's attitude to normalization has not changed,
Armenia is committed to a process without preconditions. Apparently,
Yerevan had a problem on the international arena where the Armenian
adventure of irritating Turkey with prosecutor general's territorial
claims was not welcome.
Then there was an incident on the Armenian-Turkish border, a shepherd
trespassed and was killed. According to the so-called Turkish official
version, he crossed the border to retrieve his animals. The Russian
border guards controlling the Armenian border stated that the shepherd
shot at the border guards first and the latter fired in response.
Investigation is underway, no evidence has been presented in support
of any of the versions. The only fact is that shepherds often cross
the border to retrieve their animals but this is the first time when a
shepherd is killed for trespassing.
The discussion of regional issues with the new Swiss ambassador must
have gone beyond the framework of the usual protocol.
In this regard an interesting situation has occurred in the
Armenian-Turkish domain. On the one hand, it is obvious that as the
100th anniversary of the genocide is drawing nearer, the Armenian
issue will get more vociferous, and messages to Turkey will be tenser,
including at the level of the great powers. On the other hand, the
anniversary date cannot be a substantial reason for the great powers
to recognize the genocide. Recognition is determined by the political
situation, past, present and future plans, equally the great powers
will need grounds to explain the absence of recognition of the
genocide on the 100thanniversary unless there is a situation when they
have to recognize the genocide and impose something on Turkey.
At least temporary mending of the Armenian-Turkish normalization
process could serve as grounds. So, it is not ruled out that a
proposal has been made to Yerevan. Certainly, the Armenian government
will put forth its conditions for its consent, trying to upsell its
consent to mending. It is not accidental that despite Turkey's stance
Yerevan keeps on the agenda the Armenian-Turkish protocols containing
dangerous and unacceptable points.
In the meantime, the Azerbaijani press reported that the Turkish
president Abdullah Gul stated during the summit of Turkic-speaking
nations in Gabala that Karabakh is a big issue for Turkic-speaking
nations, and the status quo is unacceptable. At the same time, Gul
extended hope that one day the Turkic-speaking summit will be held in
one of the towns of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Apparently, ahead of the 100th anniversary Turkey has figured out that
attack is the best defense, opting for aggressive and ambitious
statements. Ankara is now cornered, which might be the explanation of
its behavior. Apart from the permanent urgency of the Armenian issue,
the Kurdish issue is emerging, which is Turkey's other Achilles heel.
The issue has gone so far that even official Yerevan dares to send the
delegation of its ministry of economy to meet with the foreign
minister of the government of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Cornered Turkey is getting dangerous. Although, it is hard to tell
which Turkey is more dangerous for Armenia, cornered or
self-confident. So, in any case the key issue for Armenia is to
internationalize the issue of dangers coming from Turkey. Ahead of the
100th anniversary Armenia had better focus on security in modern
developments rather than plunge into territorial claims.
Hakob Badalyan
16:52 17/08/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30721