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Ariel Cohen: Russia's Lowering Its Profile As Go-Between In Settleme

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  • Ariel Cohen: Russia's Lowering Its Profile As Go-Between In Settleme

    ARIEL COHEN: RUSSIA'S LOWERING ITS PROFILE AS GO-BETWEEN IN SETTLEMENT OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT GIVES U.S. OPPORTUNITY TO RESTORE ITS POSITION IN REGION

    Trend, Azerbaijan
    Aug 21 2013

    Azerbaijan, Baku, Aug. 21 /A.Badalova, V.Zhavoronkova/

    Russia's lowering its profile as a go-between in the settlement of
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict gives the U.S. an opportunity to restore its
    position in the region, the leading expert of the Heritage Foundation
    for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy,
    Ariel Cohen believes.

    The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains
    the main sticking point between the two nations, but Putin's visit
    likely made no a significant difference on this issue, Cohen wrote
    in an article in The National Interest.

    "Putin reiterated that the dispute needs to be resolved
    'politically'-not through a war. This is a signal to Azerbaijan, whose
    military budget alone is greater than Armenia's state budget. Due
    to hydrocarbon revenues, Azeri military capabilities are growing,
    including weapons purchased from Russia," the expert wrote.

    According to Cohen, the Kremlin is not ready or willing to discuss any
    new initiatives and proposals that could potentially lead to solving
    the protracted conflict. This is largely due to the simple fact that
    Nagorno-Karabakh is an important guarantee of Russia's political and
    military presence in the South Caucasus.

    "Following four years of high-level mediation led by the then
    president Dmitry Medvedev, the Kremlin has lowered its profile as a
    go-between. This gives Washington an opportunity to strengthen its
    relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia and restore its position in
    the region," Cohen wrote.

    The United States could have taken advantage of this situation by
    proposing to work together with Russia on finding a solution to the
    Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, the expert's article said.

    The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
    when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
    armed forces have occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
    including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.

    Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
    co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia, France and the U.S. are
    currently holding peace negotiations.

    Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four
    resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
    surrounding regions.

    The former Soviet republic is an emerging leader in the South Caucasus
    region, and Putin's high-profile visit was another way to demonstrate
    to Washington that Russia's zone of "privileged interests" today
    covers almost all post-Soviet republics with the exception of Baltics,
    Cohen wrote.

    The expert notes that, Putin arrived in Baku together with two Russian
    warships and a large delegation of ministers and business leaders.

    Among the latter were Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Defense Minister
    Sergey Shoygu, Energy Minister Alexander Novak, Emergency Situations
    Minister Vladimir Puchkov, Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov, Minister
    of the Economy Alexei Ulyukayev, and Igor Bratchikov, head of the
    Russian delegation to the multilateral talks on the Caspian Sea.

    Cohen wrote that, since 2008, the United States has diminished its
    involvement in the post-Soviet space. It has deferred to Russia in
    all areas except the transit network to Afghanistan-gone after 2014.

    In the meantime, Moscow has happily filled the vacuum created by
    Washington.

    "Putin's visit came just two month before Azerbaijan's presidential
    elections. For an act of public support for the incumbent president
    Ilham Aliyev and as an effort to strengthen the ties between the
    two countries, Putin's timing could not have been better," the
    article said.

    Cohen also notes that, the problem is, the Obama White House and
    State Department are losing interest in the post-Soviet space, and
    their interest may decline even further following the departure of
    NATO forces from Afghanistan.

    At the same time, Baku and Moscow are working closely within the
    framework of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation
    (BSEC), the expert wrote.

    According to the expert, Azerbaijan is Russia's largest trading
    partner in the South Caucasus, having supplied Gazprom 1.5 billion
    cubic meters of gas in 2012.

    "Clearly, the two leaders had a lot to talk about, especially since
    Putin was accompanied by the oil magnates Sechin and Alekperov,"
    Cohen wrote.

    The growing role of Azerbaijan as an independent energy exporter and
    transit country for Central Asian resources to Europe worries Russia,
    he noted.

    Rosneft, the Russian state-controlled oil behemoth, is interested in
    joining the Absheron gas project, the expert's article said.

    "This would bring Rosneft to the lucrative European gas market,

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