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"THERE ARE NO BIG DISPUTES BETWEEN THE USA AND RUSSIA IN OUR REGION"
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Feb 13 2013
Interview by Ramin Naziyev, Baku. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
The independent political analyst Ilgar Velizade told Vestnik Kavkaza
about socio-political process of the last year in Azerbaijan.
- Were there any positive changes in relations between Azerbaijan
and Iran?
- At the end of the year tension between Iran and Azerbaijan
reduced due to the release of two Azerbaijani poets, the visit of the
vice-president of Iran in September and the visit of Iran's President
to the summit of the Organization of Economic Cooperation in October.
Even though rumors appeared that Azerbaijan and Israel negotiate on
giving military ranges to Israel in case of a war with Iran, it seems
Iran doesn't believe these rumors. There are certain trust principles
between these countries, which haven't been ruined.
- How did changes in the internal political atmosphere of Georgia
influence relations between Tbilisi and Baku?
The recent visit by Premier Bidzina Ivanishvili to Azerbaijan
showed that the processes didn't influence our relations. However,
the new government of Georgia and Ivanishvili himself made ambiguous
statements ahead of the visit. Members of the Cabinet stated that it is
necessary to open railway traffic between Georgia and Abkhazia. The
news was accepted very positively by the Armenian side because a
direct path from Armenia to Russia with all coming circumstances
would be opened. However, later Paata Zakareshvilli, the minister
of reintegration, disowned this statement and said it was only a
suggestion, and the project was far away from implementation.
Ivanishvili stated that the railroad Baku-Tbilisi-Kars should be
inspected, and it caused a confused reaction of Baku. But he added that
it was his personal opinion and the construction would be implemented
in time.
- How will last year reelections of Putin and Obama influence policies
of Russia and the USA in the South Caucasus?
- Putin's political line toward the Caucasian states and other
countries of the CIS is logical. I don't think that Russia will break
the logic in the near future. Regarding Barack Obama, last four years
showed that the USA do not interfere into our internal political
process actively. Washington tries to consider interests of important
political players and not to conflict with these interests. I believe
this policy will continue in next four years. Moreover, Obama stated
at one of his visits to the countries of Southeast Asia that today
a priority for American foreign policy is not the Middle East, but
the countries of Asian and Pacific region. Azerbaijan and our whole
region are not very interesting for the US. Azerbaijan is taking part
in programs which correspond to Western interests - the Afghan transit,
realization of the energy strategy of the West, including Europe. From
this point of view, Azerbaijan's participation is welcomed. They don't
need anything more from us, and we won't give them more. It meets our
interests either. We cannot play an active role in the conflicts in
Syria or the situation over Iran. Azerbaijan takes a certain place
which is acceptable for both sides. The same thing is about Armenia
and Georgia. The current administration of Obama doesn't concentrate
attention on Georgia's membership in NATO. Thus, there are no big
disputes between the USA and Russia on our region.
- What do you expect from 2013?
- 2013 is a year of presidential elections in Azerbaijan. It is the
main factor in political and economic spheres. As for governmental
priorities, the state budged 2013 was adopted, but there may be some
changes in it in the middle of the year. Today the budget is thought
to be deficit-low and realizable. This year stabilization of oil
production is planned in the context of high oil prices, it guarantees
revenues for the budget. We can say that 2013 won't be a troublesome
year. Governmental program will continue to be implemented. These
are infrastructural projects, construction of the port Alyat; the
railroad Baku-Tbilisi-Kars will probably be built by the end of the
year; various transport projects within construction of the highway
"Silk Path" will be realized. Improvement of communications in villages
and towns is required in 2013.
As for new jobs, it depends on certain governmental structures and the
macroeconomic situation. Azerbaijan is a sponsor of some countries
today, for instance, Eastern Europe which gets credits. But foreign
investments are flowing to Azerbaijan much slower. Everything demands
on regulatory mechanisms which will be developed this year. If the
government focuses on settlement investment tasks, economic indexes
will be more favorable.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/36993.html
From: Baghdasarian
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Feb 13 2013
Interview by Ramin Naziyev, Baku. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
The independent political analyst Ilgar Velizade told Vestnik Kavkaza
about socio-political process of the last year in Azerbaijan.
- Were there any positive changes in relations between Azerbaijan
and Iran?
- At the end of the year tension between Iran and Azerbaijan
reduced due to the release of two Azerbaijani poets, the visit of the
vice-president of Iran in September and the visit of Iran's President
to the summit of the Organization of Economic Cooperation in October.
Even though rumors appeared that Azerbaijan and Israel negotiate on
giving military ranges to Israel in case of a war with Iran, it seems
Iran doesn't believe these rumors. There are certain trust principles
between these countries, which haven't been ruined.
- How did changes in the internal political atmosphere of Georgia
influence relations between Tbilisi and Baku?
The recent visit by Premier Bidzina Ivanishvili to Azerbaijan
showed that the processes didn't influence our relations. However,
the new government of Georgia and Ivanishvili himself made ambiguous
statements ahead of the visit. Members of the Cabinet stated that it is
necessary to open railway traffic between Georgia and Abkhazia. The
news was accepted very positively by the Armenian side because a
direct path from Armenia to Russia with all coming circumstances
would be opened. However, later Paata Zakareshvilli, the minister
of reintegration, disowned this statement and said it was only a
suggestion, and the project was far away from implementation.
Ivanishvili stated that the railroad Baku-Tbilisi-Kars should be
inspected, and it caused a confused reaction of Baku. But he added that
it was his personal opinion and the construction would be implemented
in time.
- How will last year reelections of Putin and Obama influence policies
of Russia and the USA in the South Caucasus?
- Putin's political line toward the Caucasian states and other
countries of the CIS is logical. I don't think that Russia will break
the logic in the near future. Regarding Barack Obama, last four years
showed that the USA do not interfere into our internal political
process actively. Washington tries to consider interests of important
political players and not to conflict with these interests. I believe
this policy will continue in next four years. Moreover, Obama stated
at one of his visits to the countries of Southeast Asia that today
a priority for American foreign policy is not the Middle East, but
the countries of Asian and Pacific region. Azerbaijan and our whole
region are not very interesting for the US. Azerbaijan is taking part
in programs which correspond to Western interests - the Afghan transit,
realization of the energy strategy of the West, including Europe. From
this point of view, Azerbaijan's participation is welcomed. They don't
need anything more from us, and we won't give them more. It meets our
interests either. We cannot play an active role in the conflicts in
Syria or the situation over Iran. Azerbaijan takes a certain place
which is acceptable for both sides. The same thing is about Armenia
and Georgia. The current administration of Obama doesn't concentrate
attention on Georgia's membership in NATO. Thus, there are no big
disputes between the USA and Russia on our region.
- What do you expect from 2013?
- 2013 is a year of presidential elections in Azerbaijan. It is the
main factor in political and economic spheres. As for governmental
priorities, the state budged 2013 was adopted, but there may be some
changes in it in the middle of the year. Today the budget is thought
to be deficit-low and realizable. This year stabilization of oil
production is planned in the context of high oil prices, it guarantees
revenues for the budget. We can say that 2013 won't be a troublesome
year. Governmental program will continue to be implemented. These
are infrastructural projects, construction of the port Alyat; the
railroad Baku-Tbilisi-Kars will probably be built by the end of the
year; various transport projects within construction of the highway
"Silk Path" will be realized. Improvement of communications in villages
and towns is required in 2013.
As for new jobs, it depends on certain governmental structures and the
macroeconomic situation. Azerbaijan is a sponsor of some countries
today, for instance, Eastern Europe which gets credits. But foreign
investments are flowing to Azerbaijan much slower. Everything demands
on regulatory mechanisms which will be developed this year. If the
government focuses on settlement investment tasks, economic indexes
will be more favorable.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/36993.html
From: Baghdasarian