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Global Insight
January 9, 2013
Armenian inflation accelerates further in November 2012 on higher food
prices, remains within planned range
by: Karolina Konarzewska
According to the Armenian National Statistical Service, consumer
prices increased in November 2012 by 3.6% year-on-year (y/y). While
further departing from the annual gain of 2.5% y/y in
August-September, the result remains within the planned range of 4%
+/- 1.5 percentage points. On a monthly basis, inflation accelerated
to 1.4%, marking the third consecutive month of price increases after
five months of deflation in April-August. Food prices continued to
contribute the most to the m/m price growth, surging 2.6% m/m.
Consumer goods prices also spiked by 1.9% m/m, while non-foods and
services declined slightly in value. On average, prices increased by
2.5% y/y in January-November.
Significance:IHS Global Insight estimates the consumer prices will
accelerate by 3.7% y/y in December, and the average change for 2012 as
a whole in consumer prices will be 3.2%. Price growth has remained
modest in spite of growing food prices because of weak industrial and
agricultural outputs as well as low remittances that suppress domestic
demand. Consequently, the Central Bank of Armenia is expected to
continue to rely on the floating exchange rate and interest rate
revisions to help continue staving off inflationary pressures.
January 9, 2013
Armenian inflation accelerates further in November 2012 on higher food
prices, remains within planned range
by: Karolina Konarzewska
According to the Armenian National Statistical Service, consumer
prices increased in November 2012 by 3.6% year-on-year (y/y). While
further departing from the annual gain of 2.5% y/y in
August-September, the result remains within the planned range of 4%
+/- 1.5 percentage points. On a monthly basis, inflation accelerated
to 1.4%, marking the third consecutive month of price increases after
five months of deflation in April-August. Food prices continued to
contribute the most to the m/m price growth, surging 2.6% m/m.
Consumer goods prices also spiked by 1.9% m/m, while non-foods and
services declined slightly in value. On average, prices increased by
2.5% y/y in January-November.
Significance:IHS Global Insight estimates the consumer prices will
accelerate by 3.7% y/y in December, and the average change for 2012 as
a whole in consumer prices will be 3.2%. Price growth has remained
modest in spite of growing food prices because of weak industrial and
agricultural outputs as well as low remittances that suppress domestic
demand. Consequently, the Central Bank of Armenia is expected to
continue to rely on the floating exchange rate and interest rate
revisions to help continue staving off inflationary pressures.