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RUSSIA TRYING TO RESTORE PRESENCE IN SOUTH CAUCASUS "AT LEAST PARTIALLY"
Regnum news agency, Russia
June 29 2013
Russia reinforcing its potential in the South Caucasus against the
background of NATO's expected entry into Georgia
by Gay Borisov
Moscow has recently increased its military and political activeness
in the South Caucasus. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay
Patrushev and ODKB [Collective Security Treaty Organization] Secretary
General Nikolay Bordyuzha visited Armenia literally within several
days. An agreement on developing Russian-Armenian military and
technical cooperation was signed as a result. They also discussed the
issues of reinforcing the 102nd Russian [military] base in Armenia and
intensifying joint military exercises, strengthening the Armenian Air
Forces and antiaircraft defence, modernizing border guard detachments
of the FSB [Federal Security Service] of the Russian Federation,
and defending the Turkish and Iranian sectors of the Armenian border
together with their Armenian colleagues. It was also decided to create
a joint structure - ArmRosgosservis [Armenian-Russian state service],
which is of regional importance due to its size.
Parallel to it, Russia started delivering weapons and hardware to
Azerbaijan. The deal is worth 750m-1bn dollars. This sum of money
would be sufficient to fully arm and equip an army division from
scratch. Certainly, the fact aroused questions among Armenian experts.
However, the Russian side hinted that Yerevan had been informed about
the sale of weapons to Baku. It was also said that the "business
project", which, according to the expert of the Russian Institute for
Strategic Studies (RISS), PhD in Military Science Vladimir Zakharov,
is aimed to restore parity of forces in the region, which changed
to Armenia's advantage after it became known that Iskander-M guided
missile systems had been located on its territory (it should be noted
though that so far, there has been no official confirmation of the
information).
Russia maintaining military, political presence in South Caucasus
However, the true aim of the deal with Azerbaijan is that by delivering
weapons and military hardware, Russia is trying in some measure
to maintain its military and political presence in the country,
which started to come to naught after Russian specialists left the
Qabala Radar Station. Meanwhile, in view of short-term prospects of
developments in the region, further weakening of Russia's positions
is rather gravid. The thing is that in a year, the Americans and
their allies will start withdrawing their troops from Afghanistan.
Most of them will go to Europe via Georgian and Azerbaijani
territories. It is not by chance that the construction of the
Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars (Turkey) railway line is being carried
out at an accelerated pace. It is evident that the construction,
which quite recently suffered financial problems and was questioned by
the new Georgian leadership, has found a new lease of life. The thing
is that this line is going to be one of the main land routes for the
withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan. Georgian Defence Minister
Irakli Alasania made a direct statement regarding the issue. As
Alasania put it, "the main plan for Georgia's participation in the
ISAF international mission is the restoration of the railway line
together with Azerbaijan and Turkey".
NATO to enter Georgia "soon"
It is absolutely clear today that NATO will soon enter Georgia one
way or another. However, it is a big question when it will leave and
whether it will leave at all (the process of shifting troops is going
to be rather long, lasting maybe for years). It was with good reason
that Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said that despite
the fact that "Russia disapproves of Georgia's strive to integrate in
NATO, what matters is that the Georgian people approve of it. It is
their choice. The European and Euro-Atlantic space is our strategy and
we are going to rigorously move in this direction". Apart from this,
after his meeting with NATO Secretary General [Anders Fogh Rasmussen]
in Tbilisi, Ivanishvili made a slip, saying that Tbilisi will not
even insist on a speedy receipt of a Membership Action Plan [MAP]
for the membership of the alliance. As he put it, this issue is not
fundamental for the Georgian side and what matters is "real steps", as
there have been cases, when some countries joined NATO without a MAP.
To some extent, it is possible to understand the Georgian leader: The
fact of Georgia's active participation in evacuating NATO troops from
Afghanistan, as well as its becoming a key transit segment of their
route will make it possible to ensure consolidation of Tbilisi's
relations with Brussels and turn "formalities" into a factor of
secondary importance. The fact will also give the Georgian side a
chance to reject all the complaints of Moscow, which will by no means
feel happy about the changes to the configuration in the region.
Partial presence in Absheron fitting in Moscow's plan
Whatever the situation, it is doubtless that in the near future,
immediate physical presence of the North Atlantic alliance in Georgia
and Azerbaijan, not to mention the ideological impact, will start
increasing even without Tbilisi's formally joining NATO or receiving
a status of an applicant country. And Russia's current steps aimed at
strengthening defensive and technical structures of its ally Armenia
as well as those of its own stationed in the region, is an attempt
to restore at least partially its presence in Absheron [peninsula,
where Azerbaijan's capital Baku is situated], which completely fits
in Moscow's understanding of the prospect.
[Translated from Russian]
Regnum news agency, Russia
June 29 2013
Russia reinforcing its potential in the South Caucasus against the
background of NATO's expected entry into Georgia
by Gay Borisov
Moscow has recently increased its military and political activeness
in the South Caucasus. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay
Patrushev and ODKB [Collective Security Treaty Organization] Secretary
General Nikolay Bordyuzha visited Armenia literally within several
days. An agreement on developing Russian-Armenian military and
technical cooperation was signed as a result. They also discussed the
issues of reinforcing the 102nd Russian [military] base in Armenia and
intensifying joint military exercises, strengthening the Armenian Air
Forces and antiaircraft defence, modernizing border guard detachments
of the FSB [Federal Security Service] of the Russian Federation,
and defending the Turkish and Iranian sectors of the Armenian border
together with their Armenian colleagues. It was also decided to create
a joint structure - ArmRosgosservis [Armenian-Russian state service],
which is of regional importance due to its size.
Parallel to it, Russia started delivering weapons and hardware to
Azerbaijan. The deal is worth 750m-1bn dollars. This sum of money
would be sufficient to fully arm and equip an army division from
scratch. Certainly, the fact aroused questions among Armenian experts.
However, the Russian side hinted that Yerevan had been informed about
the sale of weapons to Baku. It was also said that the "business
project", which, according to the expert of the Russian Institute for
Strategic Studies (RISS), PhD in Military Science Vladimir Zakharov,
is aimed to restore parity of forces in the region, which changed
to Armenia's advantage after it became known that Iskander-M guided
missile systems had been located on its territory (it should be noted
though that so far, there has been no official confirmation of the
information).
Russia maintaining military, political presence in South Caucasus
However, the true aim of the deal with Azerbaijan is that by delivering
weapons and military hardware, Russia is trying in some measure
to maintain its military and political presence in the country,
which started to come to naught after Russian specialists left the
Qabala Radar Station. Meanwhile, in view of short-term prospects of
developments in the region, further weakening of Russia's positions
is rather gravid. The thing is that in a year, the Americans and
their allies will start withdrawing their troops from Afghanistan.
Most of them will go to Europe via Georgian and Azerbaijani
territories. It is not by chance that the construction of the
Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars (Turkey) railway line is being carried
out at an accelerated pace. It is evident that the construction,
which quite recently suffered financial problems and was questioned by
the new Georgian leadership, has found a new lease of life. The thing
is that this line is going to be one of the main land routes for the
withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan. Georgian Defence Minister
Irakli Alasania made a direct statement regarding the issue. As
Alasania put it, "the main plan for Georgia's participation in the
ISAF international mission is the restoration of the railway line
together with Azerbaijan and Turkey".
NATO to enter Georgia "soon"
It is absolutely clear today that NATO will soon enter Georgia one
way or another. However, it is a big question when it will leave and
whether it will leave at all (the process of shifting troops is going
to be rather long, lasting maybe for years). It was with good reason
that Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said that despite
the fact that "Russia disapproves of Georgia's strive to integrate in
NATO, what matters is that the Georgian people approve of it. It is
their choice. The European and Euro-Atlantic space is our strategy and
we are going to rigorously move in this direction". Apart from this,
after his meeting with NATO Secretary General [Anders Fogh Rasmussen]
in Tbilisi, Ivanishvili made a slip, saying that Tbilisi will not
even insist on a speedy receipt of a Membership Action Plan [MAP]
for the membership of the alliance. As he put it, this issue is not
fundamental for the Georgian side and what matters is "real steps", as
there have been cases, when some countries joined NATO without a MAP.
To some extent, it is possible to understand the Georgian leader: The
fact of Georgia's active participation in evacuating NATO troops from
Afghanistan, as well as its becoming a key transit segment of their
route will make it possible to ensure consolidation of Tbilisi's
relations with Brussels and turn "formalities" into a factor of
secondary importance. The fact will also give the Georgian side a
chance to reject all the complaints of Moscow, which will by no means
feel happy about the changes to the configuration in the region.
Partial presence in Absheron fitting in Moscow's plan
Whatever the situation, it is doubtless that in the near future,
immediate physical presence of the North Atlantic alliance in Georgia
and Azerbaijan, not to mention the ideological impact, will start
increasing even without Tbilisi's formally joining NATO or receiving
a status of an applicant country. And Russia's current steps aimed at
strengthening defensive and technical structures of its ally Armenia
as well as those of its own stationed in the region, is an attempt
to restore at least partially its presence in Absheron [peninsula,
where Azerbaijan's capital Baku is situated], which completely fits
in Moscow's understanding of the prospect.
[Translated from Russian]