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IT IS NECESSARY TO UNDERSTAND THAT NOTHING IS LOST
A recognized leader of Armenian political scientists, a prominent
political researcher and our friend Hmayak Hovhannisyan who is
distinguished for his ability to set up dialogues with Russian
political and expert community says that the relations of Armenia
and Russia are not lost, and it is possible to correct the situation.
Hmayak Hovhannisyan's intuition has always saved the Armenian society
which is lost in conjectures and deliberations on whether Russia
is our strategic partner. Currently Armenia has very diverse moods,
and apparently "historical time" is needed for a full understanding
of what has happened, whereas nothing new has happened, in fact.
In the modern world the phrase and notion of "strategic partner" has
lost its value. One can list dozens of absurd examples of relations
between states which are labeled "strategic partner". Moreover,
the states with such conventional relations prefer more frequently
to let their partners down.
In Europe it happened during the thirty-year and seven-year war, and
the fundamental alliance of strategic partners - the Antante - was an
example of collapse under the influence of the Russian revolution. In
the modern world such a lasting alliance of strategic partners as
that of the United States and Israel is questioned.
As to Russia, it is clear that its foreign policy cannot be the
continuation of the policy of USSR. It does not fit the stylistics
and cardinal position of the present Russian society and elite. Since
the collapse of the USSR it is stated endlessly that Russia betrayed
its strategic and other partners North Korea, Serbia, Cuba, Syria,
Iraq and finally Armenia.
Russia has not betrayed anything and anyone. Simply these states with
their geopolitical functions and positions used to be partners of
the USSR. Russia's attempts to gain new positions in Latin America,
as well as in Southeast Asia and the Near East are funny, and the
Moscow elite has understood this without any likelihood to expose
the national security of their country.
The way Russia put forth the issue of Armenia is understood. Does
Armenia remain a sovereign state? If not, it must accept the condition
of waiving the right to conduct a foreign policy and claims to
the territories of historical land. Every act of refusal of this
circumstance is hypocrisy and lie. The Armenian society has no doubts
that some politicians would agree with this.
Russia remains a great and independent power but it cannot be a
guarantee of security of their partners and support them at the
critical minimum of their interests. Despite the problems with Turkey,
Russia continues to establish closer partnership with it, which
will definitely lead to attempts at serious concessions relating
to Armenia's interests. There is sufficient information on such
attempts during the past decade. (The Russians apparently think that
the Armenians are badly informed, and most probably they are right
but not all Armenians.)
Russia's influence is being increasingly limited in different aspects.
In addition, not only the great powers of the West but also the states
of Western Asia and the Far East are limiting it. Russia can hardly
contain foreign expansion in different directions and has not been
able to interest a sufficiently big number of states to join CSTO.
Domestic policy and social factors also determine greatly Russia's
"imperial ambitions". The key prejudicial factor for Russia was
the loss of "imperial" elite and more or less politically ambitious
circles. Different politicians and commentators who cherish illusions
that Russia is still an "empire" are just clowns.
Armenia and any other state that looks at Russia as a partner is doomed
to big disappointment, to put it mildly. Russia must earn money on
sale of weapon and betrayal of its partners. It will always be so.
It is necessary to understand that nothing is lost, Russia has never
been and could have never been a "strategic partner".
Such a small state as Armenia cannot enter into "strategic partnership"
with such a big state as Russia. Armenia cannot lose anything, it
remains in close and diverse relations with Russia but it is funny
to consider "strategic partnership".
The ethno-demographic and foreign political conditions of Russia
cannot allow it to view Armenia's interests as the interests of a
partner state. Russia cannot build its relations with Armenia without
taking into consideration the position and interests of Turkey and
Azerbaijan. The relations with these two states will be increasingly
important to Russia. (Russians are mindful of Turkey's reaction in
their attitude to the monument established by Armenians in the North
Caucasus.) Russia demonstratively discriminates the Lezgi and Avar
people, citizens of its own country, in favor of Azerbaijan.
Currently, the Armenian political leadership lacking experience
has understood that if the issue of getting over foreign political
isolation and maximum withdrawal of the country from dependence
on Russia is not attended in the present stage, Armenia will lose
its sovereignty both formally and actually. Moscow does not have a
single political and research center without a well-paid group of
"sympathizers" of Turkey and Azerbaijan. It costs nothing to buy any
political, information or expert group. Everything is sold and bought.
Hence, it is now meaningless to discuss with the Russian community.
In Armenia there are a number of pro-Russian layers although it
is hard to define pro-Russian moods. One can understand why. These
people have no ability and perspective to receive a "place under this
sun" except by working for Russia's interests. They have no hope to
become somebody or keep their place in the society. They have made
the right choice because these people are not people beyond the
Russian linguistic-logical space. However, they also perform very
useful functions because they have occupied an interesting niche
where there is no place for more or less serious opponents.
Russia could have made initiatives on resuming war in the South
Caucasus, primarily between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Its sympathizers
in Armenia will continue to justify the Russian policy, it is
a clinical case but it is what it is. There is no need to try to
explain everything. Everything has been explained.
The Armenian "political opposition" which has grown up on spread of
radical anti-Russian moods has not lost its ability to talk and voice
altogether because it thinks that "the worse, the better". Moscow
certainly received information about what is going on in Armenia and
understand that pro-Russian actors in Armenia are clowns that lack
information and all they can do is foolish talks.
One way or another, the pro-Russian figures will be called to order,
including by way of criminal responsibility. Therefore, the visits of
Russian politicians or other intellectuals to Yerevan and participation
of the Armenian Association of Political Scientists which is headed
by our friend Hmayak Hovhannisyan in it is so important to the
Armenian-Russian relations. It is necessary to talk more, a lot has
to be told, there is still time till the last feast of the empire.
Igor Muradyan 16:57 18/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30498
A recognized leader of Armenian political scientists, a prominent
political researcher and our friend Hmayak Hovhannisyan who is
distinguished for his ability to set up dialogues with Russian
political and expert community says that the relations of Armenia
and Russia are not lost, and it is possible to correct the situation.
Hmayak Hovhannisyan's intuition has always saved the Armenian society
which is lost in conjectures and deliberations on whether Russia
is our strategic partner. Currently Armenia has very diverse moods,
and apparently "historical time" is needed for a full understanding
of what has happened, whereas nothing new has happened, in fact.
In the modern world the phrase and notion of "strategic partner" has
lost its value. One can list dozens of absurd examples of relations
between states which are labeled "strategic partner". Moreover,
the states with such conventional relations prefer more frequently
to let their partners down.
In Europe it happened during the thirty-year and seven-year war, and
the fundamental alliance of strategic partners - the Antante - was an
example of collapse under the influence of the Russian revolution. In
the modern world such a lasting alliance of strategic partners as
that of the United States and Israel is questioned.
As to Russia, it is clear that its foreign policy cannot be the
continuation of the policy of USSR. It does not fit the stylistics
and cardinal position of the present Russian society and elite. Since
the collapse of the USSR it is stated endlessly that Russia betrayed
its strategic and other partners North Korea, Serbia, Cuba, Syria,
Iraq and finally Armenia.
Russia has not betrayed anything and anyone. Simply these states with
their geopolitical functions and positions used to be partners of
the USSR. Russia's attempts to gain new positions in Latin America,
as well as in Southeast Asia and the Near East are funny, and the
Moscow elite has understood this without any likelihood to expose
the national security of their country.
The way Russia put forth the issue of Armenia is understood. Does
Armenia remain a sovereign state? If not, it must accept the condition
of waiving the right to conduct a foreign policy and claims to
the territories of historical land. Every act of refusal of this
circumstance is hypocrisy and lie. The Armenian society has no doubts
that some politicians would agree with this.
Russia remains a great and independent power but it cannot be a
guarantee of security of their partners and support them at the
critical minimum of their interests. Despite the problems with Turkey,
Russia continues to establish closer partnership with it, which
will definitely lead to attempts at serious concessions relating
to Armenia's interests. There is sufficient information on such
attempts during the past decade. (The Russians apparently think that
the Armenians are badly informed, and most probably they are right
but not all Armenians.)
Russia's influence is being increasingly limited in different aspects.
In addition, not only the great powers of the West but also the states
of Western Asia and the Far East are limiting it. Russia can hardly
contain foreign expansion in different directions and has not been
able to interest a sufficiently big number of states to join CSTO.
Domestic policy and social factors also determine greatly Russia's
"imperial ambitions". The key prejudicial factor for Russia was
the loss of "imperial" elite and more or less politically ambitious
circles. Different politicians and commentators who cherish illusions
that Russia is still an "empire" are just clowns.
Armenia and any other state that looks at Russia as a partner is doomed
to big disappointment, to put it mildly. Russia must earn money on
sale of weapon and betrayal of its partners. It will always be so.
It is necessary to understand that nothing is lost, Russia has never
been and could have never been a "strategic partner".
Such a small state as Armenia cannot enter into "strategic partnership"
with such a big state as Russia. Armenia cannot lose anything, it
remains in close and diverse relations with Russia but it is funny
to consider "strategic partnership".
The ethno-demographic and foreign political conditions of Russia
cannot allow it to view Armenia's interests as the interests of a
partner state. Russia cannot build its relations with Armenia without
taking into consideration the position and interests of Turkey and
Azerbaijan. The relations with these two states will be increasingly
important to Russia. (Russians are mindful of Turkey's reaction in
their attitude to the monument established by Armenians in the North
Caucasus.) Russia demonstratively discriminates the Lezgi and Avar
people, citizens of its own country, in favor of Azerbaijan.
Currently, the Armenian political leadership lacking experience
has understood that if the issue of getting over foreign political
isolation and maximum withdrawal of the country from dependence
on Russia is not attended in the present stage, Armenia will lose
its sovereignty both formally and actually. Moscow does not have a
single political and research center without a well-paid group of
"sympathizers" of Turkey and Azerbaijan. It costs nothing to buy any
political, information or expert group. Everything is sold and bought.
Hence, it is now meaningless to discuss with the Russian community.
In Armenia there are a number of pro-Russian layers although it
is hard to define pro-Russian moods. One can understand why. These
people have no ability and perspective to receive a "place under this
sun" except by working for Russia's interests. They have no hope to
become somebody or keep their place in the society. They have made
the right choice because these people are not people beyond the
Russian linguistic-logical space. However, they also perform very
useful functions because they have occupied an interesting niche
where there is no place for more or less serious opponents.
Russia could have made initiatives on resuming war in the South
Caucasus, primarily between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Its sympathizers
in Armenia will continue to justify the Russian policy, it is
a clinical case but it is what it is. There is no need to try to
explain everything. Everything has been explained.
The Armenian "political opposition" which has grown up on spread of
radical anti-Russian moods has not lost its ability to talk and voice
altogether because it thinks that "the worse, the better". Moscow
certainly received information about what is going on in Armenia and
understand that pro-Russian actors in Armenia are clowns that lack
information and all they can do is foolish talks.
One way or another, the pro-Russian figures will be called to order,
including by way of criminal responsibility. Therefore, the visits of
Russian politicians or other intellectuals to Yerevan and participation
of the Armenian Association of Political Scientists which is headed
by our friend Hmayak Hovhannisyan in it is so important to the
Armenian-Russian relations. It is necessary to talk more, a lot has
to be told, there is still time till the last feast of the empire.
Igor Muradyan 16:57 18/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30498