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IN THE NEAR FUTURE THERE WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF ANTI-ARMENIAN INITIATIVES IN GREECE AND ITALY
[ Part 2.2: "Attached Text" ]
July 17 2013
The EU's "Southern Corridor" project aims to diversify the energy
sources and channels of communication received from the East. In
2000-ies, it was planned to carry out this project through "Nabucco"
project. It was assumed to transfer the gas from the Caspian Sea basin
through the gas pipeline starting from the territory of Azerbaijan
to Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and up to Germany
through the territory of Austria. Later, it turned out that the
implementation of "Nabucco" is not economically justified: necessary
amount of gas was not found that could meet the design capacity of the
pipeline. The preliminary version of the pipeline designed to transfer
up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year, worth of 8 billion euro,
assumed that apart from Azerbaijan (which could provide one-third of
the demand), Turkmenistan will also supply gas, and, possibly, other
Central Asian countries, as well. However, the issue of the status
of the Caspian Sea and Russia's influence made Transcaspian pipeline
projects vanish, and it became clear that relying only on the resources
of Azerbaijan, the investments become very risky. To save the project,
the authors decided to go for another direction: it was decided to
bring the pipeline to Iraq by a separate branch from the territory
of Turkey, and (presumably) to Iran. With regard to these countries,
the political problems were observed fairly solvable. However, soon it
became clear that implementing the project in that way is too risky,
because the costs will reach up to 14 billion euros. As a result,
the participants of the project, in turn, began to abandon the idea of
implementing it, first, Germany and Hungary and then Turkey. It seemed
that the "Southern corridor' is in danger, moreover, parallel to this,
Russia was actively diversifying channels of communication to Europe,
and actually began to realize the construction of the pipeline by
the name "Southern Stream". But further developments showed that
Azerbaijani gas, however, will reach Europe, by the way, regardless
of Russian communications. Implementation of a number of smaller
projects contributes to it, which will launch in the near future. The
first of them is Ander Anatolia pipeline, TANAP of (Trans Anatolian
Pipeline - TANAP). It was envisaged to build a pipeline that will
extend throughout Turkey, allowing the gas to pump out from East
to West. As for the Balkans, there will be two gas pipelines. One
of them is the "Nabucco - West", the short version of "Nabucco"
project. From the preliminary version, it is three times shorter,
and beginning from the Turkish-Bulgarian border, crosses Bulgaria,
Romania, Hungary, Austria and reach Austria. In Balkans, the second
pipeline is the Ander Adriatic pipeline, TAP (Trans Adriatic Pipeline -
TAP). Starting from Turkish-Greek border, passing through the territory
of Greece, Albania, the pipeline, according to the plan, will cross
the Adriatic sea and reach Italy. The last two projects, basically,
are competitors because the only guaranteed source of charging
for both is the Azerbaijani "Shah Deniz-2â~@³ mine. Basically,
Europe and even the whole West recently were watching in default
as to what decision Baku will arrive at and whom it will give the
preference to. Finally, about two weeks ago, on June 25, owners of
the company exploiting "Shah Deniz" mine announced that they give
preference to TAP. Why they came up to such a decision, the experts
do not comment. They indicate a number of economic factors, but they
all share one opinion that the decision is political and was reached
not by official Baku, but by its persuasion. The representative of
the U.S. State Department sent congratulation to Azerbaijan on the
occasion of the decision. Even the President of consortium exploiting
"Shah Deniz" has announced that the choice was made by both economic
and political criteria. Wondering what kind of political standards they
are talking about, we may only guess. In our case, it is important
that in the near future Azerbaijani gas will be used in Southern
European countries, particularly in Greece, Albania and Italy. And
if we take into account the negative experience of the Azerbaijani
oil, the effect of gas should not be a surprise: there is no doubt
that in the near future there will be no shortage of anti-Armenian
initiatives in Greece and Italy, and Armenia will have the problem
of balancing them at all levels that are consistent with our own
resources, for instances, political, diplomatic, cultural and so
on. This is going to be a new challenge for public institutions,
especially diplomatic corps. Movses DEMIRCHYAN "Aravot" daily
Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2013/07/17/155516/
[ Part 2.2: "Attached Text" ]
July 17 2013
The EU's "Southern Corridor" project aims to diversify the energy
sources and channels of communication received from the East. In
2000-ies, it was planned to carry out this project through "Nabucco"
project. It was assumed to transfer the gas from the Caspian Sea basin
through the gas pipeline starting from the territory of Azerbaijan
to Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and up to Germany
through the territory of Austria. Later, it turned out that the
implementation of "Nabucco" is not economically justified: necessary
amount of gas was not found that could meet the design capacity of the
pipeline. The preliminary version of the pipeline designed to transfer
up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year, worth of 8 billion euro,
assumed that apart from Azerbaijan (which could provide one-third of
the demand), Turkmenistan will also supply gas, and, possibly, other
Central Asian countries, as well. However, the issue of the status
of the Caspian Sea and Russia's influence made Transcaspian pipeline
projects vanish, and it became clear that relying only on the resources
of Azerbaijan, the investments become very risky. To save the project,
the authors decided to go for another direction: it was decided to
bring the pipeline to Iraq by a separate branch from the territory
of Turkey, and (presumably) to Iran. With regard to these countries,
the political problems were observed fairly solvable. However, soon it
became clear that implementing the project in that way is too risky,
because the costs will reach up to 14 billion euros. As a result,
the participants of the project, in turn, began to abandon the idea of
implementing it, first, Germany and Hungary and then Turkey. It seemed
that the "Southern corridor' is in danger, moreover, parallel to this,
Russia was actively diversifying channels of communication to Europe,
and actually began to realize the construction of the pipeline by
the name "Southern Stream". But further developments showed that
Azerbaijani gas, however, will reach Europe, by the way, regardless
of Russian communications. Implementation of a number of smaller
projects contributes to it, which will launch in the near future. The
first of them is Ander Anatolia pipeline, TANAP of (Trans Anatolian
Pipeline - TANAP). It was envisaged to build a pipeline that will
extend throughout Turkey, allowing the gas to pump out from East
to West. As for the Balkans, there will be two gas pipelines. One
of them is the "Nabucco - West", the short version of "Nabucco"
project. From the preliminary version, it is three times shorter,
and beginning from the Turkish-Bulgarian border, crosses Bulgaria,
Romania, Hungary, Austria and reach Austria. In Balkans, the second
pipeline is the Ander Adriatic pipeline, TAP (Trans Adriatic Pipeline -
TAP). Starting from Turkish-Greek border, passing through the territory
of Greece, Albania, the pipeline, according to the plan, will cross
the Adriatic sea and reach Italy. The last two projects, basically,
are competitors because the only guaranteed source of charging
for both is the Azerbaijani "Shah Deniz-2â~@³ mine. Basically,
Europe and even the whole West recently were watching in default
as to what decision Baku will arrive at and whom it will give the
preference to. Finally, about two weeks ago, on June 25, owners of
the company exploiting "Shah Deniz" mine announced that they give
preference to TAP. Why they came up to such a decision, the experts
do not comment. They indicate a number of economic factors, but they
all share one opinion that the decision is political and was reached
not by official Baku, but by its persuasion. The representative of
the U.S. State Department sent congratulation to Azerbaijan on the
occasion of the decision. Even the President of consortium exploiting
"Shah Deniz" has announced that the choice was made by both economic
and political criteria. Wondering what kind of political standards they
are talking about, we may only guess. In our case, it is important
that in the near future Azerbaijani gas will be used in Southern
European countries, particularly in Greece, Albania and Italy. And
if we take into account the negative experience of the Azerbaijani
oil, the effect of gas should not be a surprise: there is no doubt
that in the near future there will be no shortage of anti-Armenian
initiatives in Greece and Italy, and Armenia will have the problem
of balancing them at all levels that are consistent with our own
resources, for instances, political, diplomatic, cultural and so
on. This is going to be a new challenge for public institutions,
especially diplomatic corps. Movses DEMIRCHYAN "Aravot" daily
Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2013/07/17/155516/